7 ms·

They haven’t even gotten self driving working with driver still at the wheel, how are they supposed to convince us that they can do fully autonomous?

• jjulius 2y ago
  I mean, people have been gullible for this long already...
• fiddlerwoaroof 2y ago
  I use it every day, but HN says it doesn’t work
  • cryptoegorophy 2y ago
    Exactly. I wish people actually used it instead of reading biased news about it. Driving is so much stress free with it now.
    • bagels 2y ago
      I used it. It was novel, but it made a lot of mistakes. I didn't subscribe.
    • spike021 2y ago
      I frequently drive in the SF Bay Area in a non-Tesla and it's incredible how many Teslas I've seen nearly hit us, randomly swerve or brake hard for literally no reason. I always encounter a lot of Teslas while walking my dog and it's clear they're no safer than many people who shouldn't be driving regular cars.
      • minwcnt5 2y ago
        It's wild, most Teslas I encounter drive fine, but every once in a while I see one driving completely erratically. Stopping 20 feet too soon at a stop sign, very weird positioning in lane, sudden acceleration or deceleration. I think I can pretty much tell if a Tesla has FSD enabled if I follow it for a minute or so.
    • jaarse 2y ago
      I disagree completely. Letting it drive is the exact same as teaching my 16 year old kid to drive. It’s nice to let them take the wheel, but you never know when there going to make a mistake and almost crash into traffic.
    • hsbauauvhabzb 2y ago
      Driving is stress free until you end up under a truck or taking a life.
    • matsemann 2y ago
      Saw a Tesla swerve into the bike lane yesterday while driver was on the phone. Driver probably felt safe and that everything was in order. The cyclists not so much. Point is it's a matter of perspective. How many around you have to accommodate?
      • rpmisms 2y ago
        I own a Tesla and a motorcycle. I'll often ride while my wife is driving the car, and FSD is far more respectful of me than most cars.
      • fiddlerwoaroof 2y ago
        Human drivers use the bike lane, shoulder or oncoming traffic lane to drive around cars turning left and to avoid hazards all the time. It’s not unsafe if you check to make sure no one is there and my Tesla detects people around me basically as well as a human can. On the other hand, FSD won’t try to pass me on winding mountain roads with a double yellow line.
  • karlgkk 2y ago
    A single person's evidence isn't helpful. People doing testing at scale of Tesla's solution (even the latest version), have found a few interventions happen an hour (or at least per day), especially on busy streets or in situations where weather isn't complimentary. It cannot be truly an autonomous robotaxi without VERY HIGH reliability. One intervention per hour is one too many.
    • porphyra 2y ago
      Cruise had driverless robotaxis on the streets while they had 2.5 to 5 miles per intervention. [1] I think FSD 12.5 is way beyond that --- I drove over 20 miles yesterday with zero interventions. Also, having ridden Waymo in San Francisco many times, I find that the FSD is actually slightly smoother and handles stuff like going around obstacles and blockages more naturally, although, as you are no doubt aware, there are still some rough edges in rare cases. Once Tesla has reasonable remote human assistance infrastructure in place to help out with the extreme edge cases, and the software improves at the current rate, I don't see why they couldn't roll out a robotaxi service. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/03/technology/cruise-general-motors-self-driving-cars.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/03/technology/cruise-general...
      • jaarse 2y ago
        As a Tesla owner I can promise you there will never be reasonable human assistance infrastructure. Have to ever tried to get in touch with a human at Tesla short of driving to a service center. Almost impossible. It would be easier for me to get the president on the line. Having just purchased a new Tesla, I tried for 2 weeks to communicate with Tesla prior to purchase. The closest I even got was a phone tree, which after 7 levels sent me to a voicemail box that was full. Am I’m talking every day for 14 days. Had my wife not wanted it so bad I would have cancelled my deposit on the spot. I requested service on it last week. The earliest service date is Nov. 12. I have yet to hear from an advisor on the app. Tesla does a lot of things right, but supporting their products with actual humans is not one of them..
        • ericd 2y ago
  • crustaceansoup 2y ago
    It's an SAE Level 2 system, they haven't indicated that's ever changing on current cars. They're even calling it "Full Self-Driving (Supervised) (also referred to as Autosteer on City Streets)" now [1] A lot of companies have Level 2 systems. That's still a far cry from full automation. [1] https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/modely/en_us/GUID-2CB60804-9CEA-4F4B-8B04-09B991368DC5.html https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/modely/en_us/GUID-2CB6080...
    • alex_young 2y ago
      Back in 2016, Tesla CEO Elon Musk stunned the automotive world by announcing that, henceforth, all of his company’s vehicles would be shipped with the hardware necessary for “full self-driving.” You will be able to nap in your car while it drives you to work, he promised. It will even be able to drive cross-country with no one inside the vehicle. https://www.theverge.com/2023/8/23/23837598/tesla-elon-musk-self-driving-false-promises-land-of-the-giants https://www.theverge.com/2023/8/23/23837598/tesla-elon-musk-...
    • i2infinity 2y ago
      They have one of the best Level 2 self-driving implementations on the market. It’s so good that I don’t even question the FSD tag. That said, I would never let my family ride in a Tesla robotaxi running on the existing suite of sensors and FSD. Does anyone know what needs to happen for Tesla to reach Level 5 autonomy? I get nervous letting the current FSD handle complicated intersections.
      • paxys 2y ago
        There is a grand canyon sized gulf between "best level 2 system" and "adequate level 5 system".
  • lern_too_spel 2y ago
    How many disengagements per thousand miles? By all accounts, it's still far behind where Waymo was 10 years ago.
    • lopkeny12ko 2y ago
      It doesn't matter because it's a meaningless statistic. But sure, I'll entertain it. Last figure I heard was 1 disengagement per 200 miles. The distance between SF and LA is 380 miles. If my car can drive me from SF to LA and I only have to intervene once, that's already incredible and leagues ahead of what Waymo can offer. And since you asked, FSD 12.6 will reduce disengagements per mile by 5x.
      • crustaceansoup 2y ago
        Waymo doesn't require a driver to supervise the car, they're supposedly running Level 4 cars. FSD requires continual supervision, you must be responsible and attentive at all times. How is this a reasonable comparison?
        • lopkeny12ko 2y ago
          You say this as if there isn't an army of teleoperators behind the scenes ready to remotely take over a Waymo at a moment's notice... It was also announced today that unsupervised FSD is coming to Texas and California in 2025.
          • peutetre 2y ago
            It was also announced that there would be 1 million Tesla robotaxis on the road in 2020: https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129/elon-musk-promised-1-million-tesla-robotaxis-by-the-end-of-2020-where-are-they https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129/elon-musk-promised-1-mil...
          • crustaceansoup 2y ago
            There's a big difference between "someone at central command can take over when the car signals" and "someone must watch the car constantly and take over when they see it do anything bad". The disengagement events on recent videos of FSD are still the likes of "oops it almost turned into oncoming traffic" or "oops it almost ran into a pole", that's the sort of thing you have to catch before it happens, not after.
  • jaarse 2y ago
    I also have a 2024 Tesla with FSD, but stopped trusting it. Here’s the thing, it works great for 30-40 minutes, until it doesn’t and makes a completely wrong move almost causing an accident without user intervention. And yes, I’m talking about v12.5.1 In the last month, it’s driven onto grass where there used to be an off ramp that was redone last year, cut across 3 lanes of highway traffic within 200 feet of an off ramp, and almost ran a semi truck off the road (yes, we had the right of way, but he weighs 20,000 lbs and was in no way going to be able to stop in time). It a cool toy to show off when you’re being hyper vigilant about keeping an eye on it, but there is no way it should be allowed on the public roads yet. I 1000% would advise against purchasing it unless you have the extra cash and want to try it out. It’s not even close to production ready. Edit: spelling
    • fiddlerwoaroof 2y ago
      [flagged]
    • kmlx 2y ago
      > Here’s the thing, it works great for 30-40 minutes, until it doesn’t and makes a completely wrong move almost causing an accident without user intervention interesting. this wasn’t my experience. i did SF <> Lake Tahoe (which can stretch to 5hrs) a number of times when i was in SF and didn’t encounter any major issues. small issues sure, but it was definitely better than my driving.
    • SmartJerry 2y ago
      I suspect this is the same hyper-vigilance a spouse gets when the other is driving. Somehow I can go 20 years without an accident but everytime the spouse is in the car it's not the same as 'their' driving so they constantly feel the need to backseat drive and press the imaginary break. Not saying Tesla driving is perfect but it's better than a lot of drivers I know.
  • anonzzzies 2y ago
    If it worked, why postpone all of this? Again? It works 'well enough' when there is a human on board, without one, it's just not safe enough yet.
    • fiddlerwoaroof 2y ago
      Aside from supply issues due tot he pandemic and demand, I there’s a strong incentive to be conservative in how you roll out self-driving: Cruise and Uber both ran into serious issues because they rolled out self-driving cars too aggressively. It won’t take that many publicized incidents to cause significant financial, legal and reputational issues for Tesla. So, selling FSD as a level 2 system while they are training their networks and gathering performance data makes a lot of sense.
      • anonzzzies 2y ago
        Sure, but saying every earnings call 'it will definitely fully work this year' and then not delivering every year is rather. wrong. He knows it won't work this year, or next. It needs more training and testing as you say; needs either that or a significant AI breakthrough.
  • dheera 2y ago
    Mine still makes a lot of grave mistakes on local roads, stops for overly long at stop signs (long enough to confuse other drivers), and has very poor merging behavior, especially when there are trucks around. It works fine 99% of the time.
  • gitaarik 2y ago
    Then you must be one of the lucky ones!
  • guax 2y ago
    Would you trust it without a break pedal and steering wheel you can take control over? How confident you are Tesla can deliver this within one or two years? If your answer is not a resounding yes for both this product its as good as nothing at this stage. Considering Tesla track record of delivering on timelines and expectations for this kind of tech.