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Does it not seem like electric vehicles will eventually swallow the world? It feels like it's 1900 and you're fighting tooth-and-nail to combat horse maltreatme

Does it not seem like electric vehicles will eventually swallow the world? It feels like it's 1900 and you're fighting tooth-and-nail to combat horse maltreatment while the rest of the world is surging toward a car-laden future. Would it not make more sense to simply focus efforts on EV adoption?

bamboozled 2y ago
I'm not trying to blame this on "Elon" but that guy basically kicked off the revolution and is kind of destroying it. His cult following, toxic views and enthusiasm for conspiracies are starting to make EV ownership something for "weirdos" at a time when owning an EV was already contentious. At least in the US. There was a time when I dreamed of owning a Tesla, there is absolutely no way I'd drive one now. I think China is going to steam ahead towards Solar, Nuclear and EVs, so maybe there is hope there!
- nomel 2y ago
  No, this should/can be based on data. Data says [1]: 1. Range 2. Cost (correlated with range) 3. Lack of charging infrastructure Where I am, unless you own a home, charging an EV is more expensive than gas. [1] https://www.supplychainconnect.com/news-trends/article/55137174/americans-remain-skeptical-about-electric-vehicles https://www.supplychainconnect.com/news-trends/article/55137...
  - bamboozled 2y ago
    From experience, a lot of car purchases are ultimately based on emotion.
Supermancho 2y ago
> Does it not seem like electric vehicles will eventually swallow the world? I don't believe so. As I understand it, there are not enough rare metals available, with the known battery technologies. I don't think will ever be the production capacity to construct and maintain (replace) electric-based equivalents to the solutions fossil fuels fit. Fossil fuels came to dominance because of a number of maximal equations. eg The energy demand to move goods, on the scale of trains, is impractical. Operating electronics in extreme temperatures, is impractical.
- kieranmaine 2y ago
  From "Most electric-car batteries could soon be made by recycling old ones" - https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2024/09/19/most-electric-car-batteries-could-soon-be-made-by-recycling-old-ones https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2024/09/19/... Apologies for the paywalled article. The following quote sums up the article: "Globally, the mining of raw ingredients for battery manufacturing could peak by the mid 2030s, reckons RMI, an American think-tank. This will be caused by a combination of better recycling and continuing advances in battery chemistry, which boosts the energy density of cells so that batteries can be made with fewer raw materials. This, RMI believes, might see mineral extraction for batteries being avoided altogether by 2050."
  - Supermancho 2y ago
    > This will be caused by a combination of better recycling and continuing advances in battery chemistry, which boosts the energy density of cells so that batteries can be made with fewer raw materials This is a hope, at best. For better or worse, I wouldn't bet on it. I don't think electric vehicles will "eat the world" in the foreseeable (or farther) future.
stonogo 2y ago
I think EVs are the 80% solution. They're great in cities and in suburbs. If you regularly make longer trips, they're a massive pain in the ass, primarily due to the poor-quality charging infrastructure. There are vast swaths of America where someone is already trucking gasoline and diesel to fuel stations but there's no reliable expectation of charging infrastructure of any kind, much less high-quality charging. It's really frustrating to run into, for instance, trying to drive from Bozeman to Seattle. It's currently fashionable to ignore this problem, but it's one we're going to have to solve.
- nomel 2y ago
  > 80% of the solution In the US, only 39% of emissions are from fossil fuels used for transportation [1]. Where I am, around 60% of my EV power comes from natural gas plants that run at night, where electricity is 3.5x cheaper (electricity costs more than gas during peak hours where I am). With the lack of new nuclear, and the required 25-50% increase in our power grid, a quick (as in 20 year) change in EV adoption would almost certainly mean that more of these natural plants come online when charging happens, negating at least some of the CO2 savings. 80% seems fictitious. [1] https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=307&t=10#:~:text=CO%202%20emissions%20from%20motor,S https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=307&t=10#:~:text=C....
  - stonogo 2y ago
    I apologize for being insufficiently specific. I wasn't talking about a solution to climate change in general, but a 'solution' to getting rid of internal-combustion personal transport. What I was trying to say that current EVs are suitable replacements for personally-owned internal combustion vehicles for about 80% of use cases.
- tcfhgj 2y ago
  EVs aren't great in cities. Cycling and public transportation is
numpad0 2y ago
Does, but also does seem to me that a lot of parties were in for potential to disrupt top of the food chain of car industry, and now that it became clear that it does the opposite of that, they're not interested in it anymore.

bamboozled 2y ago

I'm not trying to blame this on "Elon" but that guy basically kicked off the revolution and is kind of destroying it. His cult following, toxic views and enthusiasm for conspiracies are starting to make EV ownership something for "weirdos" at a time when owning an EV was already contentious. At least in the US. There was a time when I dreamed of owning a Tesla, there is absolutely no way I'd drive one now. I think China is going to steam ahead towards Solar, Nuclear and EVs, so maybe there is hope there!

nomel 2y ago
No, this should/can be based on data. Data says [1]: 1. Range 2. Cost (correlated with range) 3. Lack of charging infrastructure Where I am, unless you own a home, charging an EV is more expensive than gas. [1] https://www.supplychainconnect.com/news-trends/article/55137174/americans-remain-skeptical-about-electric-vehicles https://www.supplychainconnect.com/news-trends/article/55137...
- bamboozled 2y ago
  From experience, a lot of car purchases are ultimately based on emotion.

Supermancho 2y ago

> Does it not seem like electric vehicles will eventually swallow the world? I don't believe so. As I understand it, there are not enough rare metals available, with the known battery technologies. I don't think will ever be the production capacity to construct and maintain (replace) electric-based equivalents to the solutions fossil fuels fit. Fossil fuels came to dominance because of a number of maximal equations. eg The energy demand to move goods, on the scale of trains, is impractical. Operating electronics in extreme temperatures, is impractical.

kieranmaine 2y ago
From "Most electric-car batteries could soon be made by recycling old ones" - https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2024/09/19/most-electric-car-batteries-could-soon-be-made-by-recycling-old-ones https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2024/09/19/... Apologies for the paywalled article. The following quote sums up the article: "Globally, the mining of raw ingredients for battery manufacturing could peak by the mid 2030s, reckons RMI, an American think-tank. This will be caused by a combination of better recycling and continuing advances in battery chemistry, which boosts the energy density of cells so that batteries can be made with fewer raw materials. This, RMI believes, might see mineral extraction for batteries being avoided altogether by 2050."
- Supermancho 2y ago
  > This will be caused by a combination of better recycling and continuing advances in battery chemistry, which boosts the energy density of cells so that batteries can be made with fewer raw materials This is a hope, at best. For better or worse, I wouldn't bet on it. I don't think electric vehicles will "eat the world" in the foreseeable (or farther) future.

stonogo 2y ago

I think EVs are the 80% solution. They're great in cities and in suburbs. If you regularly make longer trips, they're a massive pain in the ass, primarily due to the poor-quality charging infrastructure. There are vast swaths of America where someone is already trucking gasoline and diesel to fuel stations but there's no reliable expectation of charging infrastructure of any kind, much less high-quality charging. It's really frustrating to run into, for instance, trying to drive from Bozeman to Seattle. It's currently fashionable to ignore this problem, but it's one we're going to have to solve.

nomel 2y ago
> 80% of the solution In the US, only 39% of emissions are from fossil fuels used for transportation [1]. Where I am, around 60% of my EV power comes from natural gas plants that run at night, where electricity is 3.5x cheaper (electricity costs more than gas during peak hours where I am). With the lack of new nuclear, and the required 25-50% increase in our power grid, a quick (as in 20 year) change in EV adoption would almost certainly mean that more of these natural plants come online when charging happens, negating at least some of the CO2 savings. 80% seems fictitious. [1] https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=307&t=10#:~:text=CO%202%20emissions%20from%20motor,S https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=307&t=10#:~:text=C....
- stonogo 2y ago
  I apologize for being insufficiently specific. I wasn't talking about a solution to climate change in general, but a 'solution' to getting rid of internal-combustion personal transport. What I was trying to say that current EVs are suitable replacements for personally-owned internal combustion vehicles for about 80% of use cases.
tcfhgj 2y ago
EVs aren't great in cities. Cycling and public transportation is

numpad0 2y ago

Does, but also does seem to me that a lot of parties were in for potential to disrupt top of the food chain of car industry, and now that it became clear that it does the opposite of that, they're not interested in it anymore.