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> Those working in specialized fields will hold on for much longer. The thing about AI up to this point is that it has replaced, well, very few jobs, but what
by 015a 2y ago
> Those working in specialized fields will hold on for much longer.
The thing about AI up to this point is that it has replaced, well, very few jobs, but what jobs it seems to be most capable of replacing are extremely counter-intuitive. Eight years ago, everyone thought it would be: self-driving, machines, hard labor, etc. Turns out that stuff is really hard, and the first industries to fall were actually the more creative ones like writing and art.
If you have an intuition for how the next ten years will look, I'd implore you to be open to the reality that there is no way you could have predicted the world-state of 2024 from the perspective of 2019; and that's only 5 years.
Here's the counter-intuitive take that I believe to be true: Specialized coding might fall faster than generalist CRUD apps, if either falls at all. The value in specialized engineering is biased a lot heavier toward knowledge of the specialized thing you know about. Versus, the problems generalist CRUD coders deal with every day aren't actually technical or coding problems; they're business problems, coordination, resource allocation, and politics. AI has demonstrated itself as being pretty good at knowing things, even highly specialized things; it has not demonstrated itself as being very good at taking responsibility for its actions.
- twelve40 2y ago> the first industries to fall were actually the more creative ones like writing and art have writing and art really fallen? aside from stupid SEO drivel writing, that is
- 015a 2y agoOh nah, I just use that term incorrectly to mean, its likely someone somewhere has lost their job directly because of AI. I've heard a couple horror stories I'm biased toward believing about copywriting and e.g. video game concept art.
- thirdacc 2y agoThere's anecdotes [0] [1], surveys [2], analyses [3], direct statements from companies after layoffs (Duolingo and Klarna for example), a decrease in job postings and a decrease in freelance work. But HN just shrugs and says none of this counts because it's not hard empirical data (as if data about jobs was ever reliable). So let's just keep pretending everything's fine and tell the people who lost their jobs to stop gaslighting us. [0] - https://www.reddit.com/r/technicalwriting/comments/1fuz4m6/ai_took_my_job_now_what/ https://www.reddit.com/r/technicalwriting/comments/1fuz4m6/a... [1] - https://youtu.be/U2vq9LUbDGs https://youtu.be/U2vq9LUbDGs [2] - https://bloomberry.com/i-analyzed-5m-freelancing-jobs-to-see-what-jobs-are-being-replaced-by-ai/ https://bloomberry.com/i-analyzed-5m-freelancing-jobs-to-see... [3] - https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/20/business/ai-jobs-workers-replacing/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/20/business/ai-jobs-workers-repl...
- twelve40 2y agothanks for the links, always great to a see a well-referenced reply
- charlieyu1 2y agoWe just don’t have a massive breakthrough in robots at a level comparable to LLMs. Which is kinda weird because there would be of even higher demand than language models
- krater23 2y agoBoth are technical problems with technical solutions that have to fit 100%. You can't say this for art or writing. It's more mushi and anything can fit there.