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Wondering what possible expertise Greenspun brings to this arena. Worse, this post of his is just a long list of assertions without any references, supporting

Wondering what possible expertise Greenspun brings to this arena. Worse, this post of his is just a long list of assertions without any references, supporting material or backup. I guess we're just supposed to accept on faith that he knows what he's talking about. Which is kind of how we got into this cluster F in the first place, isn't it? Thinking that your experience in specialty X translates to great insights into specialty Y is a known FAIL. Greenspun needs to operate with the minimum debate rules that he'd demand from someone making equally blatant assertions about electrical engineering or web based computing.

tptacek 18y ago
Presumably, we're just meant to go look all these things up at the Cato Institute.
- hank777 18y ago
  Based on the article posted here on rent control the other day,it does indeed seem as though greenspun uses the same unsubstantiated assertion strategy for building arguments as does the cato institute. I guess I have to give him credit for being no worse than folks that get paid to write this crap.
  - tptacek 18y ago
    One of the few problems the Cato people don't have is being strong, reasoned, effective debate opponents.
    - hank777 18y ago
      lol.I am not going to opine about their entire body of work. But if you think they never have the problem of which I speak then clearly you didnt read the rent control article which explains new york's and other big cities high rents on rent control. Whether you agree with rent control or not, this is an insane unsubstantiated assertion.
      - tptacek 18y ago
        I read it, I disagreed with it, but it didn't seem insanely unsubstantiated, just wrong. For it to be insanely unsubstantiated, it would at the least need to be true that rent control was a stunning success, which it is not.
        hank777 18y ago
        I disagree. He bases his argument on the idea that rent control causes high rents as demonstrated in places like NY. This is patently false in my opinion, but my opinion is not what counts. The reason I say it is unsubstantiated and therefore insane, is that he provided no argument for the idea that there is a causation between high rents and rent control. The author falls into the all too common trap of mapping a correlation to a causation. That may be a good strategy to throw red meat to right wingers, but it is not a well constructed argument.
        tptacek 18y ago
        Are we talking about the same article? In the one I remember, he backed his argument up with a survey of deviation from median rent in markets with and without rent control.
        timr 18y ago
        Yes, he observed a correlation. In this case, there's a very reasonable argument to be made against a causal relationship: cheap cities don't institute rent control.
        tptacek 18y ago
        While I disagree with the article, that argument is probably easy to respond to; there are relatively expensive cities that don't have rent control, and his measurements are deviation from median, not just the median rent itself.
        18y ago
joshwa 18y ago
"Limited Life Experiences + Overgeneralization = Advice" - Paul Buchheit
gcv 18y ago
You have a point, but unfortunately, the only discipline which claims any real insights into fixing the economy is economics. You know, the "dismal science." It is the discipline in which the introductory books outline the basic rules. Supply, demand, production possibilities curves, all that sensible, good stuff. It all makes sense --- experts in economics should be able to wisely guide nations and markets, right? Then, the intermediate-level books and classes teach you that some of that intro-level supply-demand stuff is pretty wrong. It only operates under all sorts of unrealistic conditions, kind of like equations in high school physics which disregard friction. So intermediate econ outline all sorts of complications which supposedly help in the real world. Then, in the seminar-level classes, you learn that none of the intermediate-level theories really ever worked except by accident, and no one who tries to predict or model real-world economic conditions agrees on anything.
- DaniFong 18y ago
  I think that the dynamics of the latest bubble burst had more to do with psychology, sociology and the moral questions of old than economics, and increasingly people are viewing it that way. What we're dealing with is to a large extent an emotional phenomenon. Trust has flown out, fear has arisen, panic has set in, assumptions are being reanalyzed, and blame is being placed.
- tokenadult 18y ago
  "You have a point, but unfortunately, the only discipline which claims any real insights into fixing the economy is economics." I've asked this question recently here on HN, http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=415683 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=415683 so I'll follow up in this thread. What would you recommend someone read who wants to learn something more about economics?
rsheridan6 18y ago
There are references, supporting materials, and backup. Read the article again. And are you saying that we got into this cluster F by listening to Phil Greenspun, or other amateurs? It seems to me that the well-paid "experts" in finance and the media deserve most of the blame rather than internet people shooting their mouths off.
- chadmalik 18y ago
  ....bringing up a good point which is: why are people like Lawrence Summers, Paulson, Bernanke etc. expected to get us out of this mess when they CREATED it? Things WILL get worse as our political system is unwilling to punish incompetence and the people who predicted this stuff would happen aren't being listened to now that its obvious they were right.

tptacek 18y ago

Presumably, we're just meant to go look all these things up at the Cato Institute.

hank777 18y ago
Based on the article posted here on rent control the other day,it does indeed seem as though greenspun uses the same unsubstantiated assertion strategy for building arguments as does the cato institute. I guess I have to give him credit for being no worse than folks that get paid to write this crap.
- tptacek 18y ago
  One of the few problems the Cato people don't have is being strong, reasoned, effective debate opponents.
  - hank777 18y ago
    lol.I am not going to opine about their entire body of work. But if you think they never have the problem of which I speak then clearly you didnt read the rent control article which explains new york's and other big cities high rents on rent control. Whether you agree with rent control or not, this is an insane unsubstantiated assertion.
    - tptacek 18y ago
      I read it, I disagreed with it, but it didn't seem insanely unsubstantiated, just wrong. For it to be insanely unsubstantiated, it would at the least need to be true that rent control was a stunning success, which it is not.
      - hank777 18y ago
        I disagree. He bases his argument on the idea that rent control causes high rents as demonstrated in places like NY. This is patently false in my opinion, but my opinion is not what counts. The reason I say it is unsubstantiated and therefore insane, is that he provided no argument for the idea that there is a causation between high rents and rent control. The author falls into the all too common trap of mapping a correlation to a causation. That may be a good strategy to throw red meat to right wingers, but it is not a well constructed argument.
        tptacek 18y ago
        Are we talking about the same article? In the one I remember, he backed his argument up with a survey of deviation from median rent in markets with and without rent control.
        timr 18y ago
        Yes, he observed a correlation. In this case, there's a very reasonable argument to be made against a causal relationship: cheap cities don't institute rent control.
        tptacek 18y ago
        While I disagree with the article, that argument is probably easy to respond to; there are relatively expensive cities that don't have rent control, and his measurements are deviation from median, not just the median rent itself.
        18y ago

joshwa 18y ago

"Limited Life Experiences + Overgeneralization = Advice" - Paul Buchheit

gcv 18y ago

You have a point, but unfortunately, the only discipline which claims any real insights into fixing the economy is economics. You know, the "dismal science." It is the discipline in which the introductory books outline the basic rules. Supply, demand, production possibilities curves, all that sensible, good stuff. It all makes sense --- experts in economics should be able to wisely guide nations and markets, right? Then, the intermediate-level books and classes teach you that some of that intro-level supply-demand stuff is pretty wrong. It only operates under all sorts of unrealistic conditions, kind of like equations in high school physics which disregard friction. So intermediate econ outline all sorts of complications which supposedly help in the real world. Then, in the seminar-level classes, you learn that none of the intermediate-level theories really ever worked except by accident, and no one who tries to predict or model real-world economic conditions agrees on anything.

DaniFong 18y ago
I think that the dynamics of the latest bubble burst had more to do with psychology, sociology and the moral questions of old than economics, and increasingly people are viewing it that way. What we're dealing with is to a large extent an emotional phenomenon. Trust has flown out, fear has arisen, panic has set in, assumptions are being reanalyzed, and blame is being placed.
tokenadult 18y ago
"You have a point, but unfortunately, the only discipline which claims any real insights into fixing the economy is economics." I've asked this question recently here on HN, http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=415683 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=415683 so I'll follow up in this thread. What would you recommend someone read who wants to learn something more about economics?

rsheridan6 18y ago

There are references, supporting materials, and backup. Read the article again. And are you saying that we got into this cluster F by listening to Phil Greenspun, or other amateurs? It seems to me that the well-paid "experts" in finance and the media deserve most of the blame rather than internet people shooting their mouths off.

chadmalik 18y ago
....bringing up a good point which is: why are people like Lawrence Summers, Paulson, Bernanke etc. expected to get us out of this mess when they CREATED it? Things WILL get worse as our political system is unwilling to punish incompetence and the people who predicted this stuff would happen aren't being listened to now that its obvious they were right.