5 ms·

in 99 years, most of the island probably will be underwater due to climate change.

vixen99 2y ago
Further information on 13,000 islands: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538947.2024.2329816#abstract https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538947.2024.2... "Of over 13,000 islands examined, approximately 12% experienced significant shifts in shoreline positions. The total shoreline length of these islands approaches 200,000 km, with 7.57% showing signs of landward erosion and 6.05% expanding seaward. Human activities, particularly reclamation and land filling, were identified as primary drivers of local shoreline transformations, while natural factors have a comparatively minor impact. "
BurningFrog 2y ago
The island is certainly in the risk zone, but I think that is also unknowable. My guess is that by carbon sequestering and/or SO2 injection in the stratosphere, the climate change will be controllable within a few decades.
- skeledrew 2y ago
  It's very likely that we're already beyond some of the tipping points, and others are very close[0]. We're basically going into the mitigation phase now by my understanding. [0] https://www.space.com/climate-tipping-points-closer-than-realized https://www.space.com/climate-tipping-points-closer-than-rea...
  - BurningFrog 2y ago
    I'm quite skeptical. If we lower the CO2 levels (carbon sequestering) and cool the planet by reflecting more sunlight (SO2 injection in the stratosphere), I'm sure these alleged tipping points will be tipped back again, given some time. It's good to be aware that doom sells, and the incentive to publish doom predictions for the money they make is very high. Of course, they can still be true... We'll see how it goes :)
    - ClumsyPilot 2y ago
      > If we lower the CO2 levels (carbon sequestering This is simply fantasy. Sequestering carbon mechanically is an energy losing process. It is also inefficient. If we burned oil in year 2,000 at (generously) 50% efficiency, it will cost us 4X more in year 2040 to sequester it at 50% (very generous) efficiency. On the face of it, we would need a sequestering industry that is 4X bigger than the oil industry, and it will be just losing money. Politically, it’s just not going to happen. Natural sequestration (I.e. tree planting) is not enough by a very large margin (like over 10x)
      - BurningFrog 2y ago
        Restoring CO₂ levels will use plenty of money and energy, however it's done. It can still be very much worth doing! I don't believe much in tree planting, since it uses up huge areas of the planet forever. The best way is to separate out CO2 from the atmosphere and pump it into underground cavities. This is the just reversing natural gas extraction, which means it's well established tech. Aside from the separating CO2 part, but that's being worked on. In a decade or three I expect solar powered machines like this slowly but surely turning the atmosphere back to normal.
    - skeledrew 2y ago
      I don't get the reason for skepticism, when this is coming from scientists who've been studying the field for many years, and have been making predictions that have been coming true. It's like an avalanche. After it starts you can't stop it or get all that snow back on the mountain; it has to get to level ground, melt (if it gets warm enough) and go through an entire cycle that takes time. So yes, things will likely tip back. After humanity either has already been wiped out or fully migrated to other planets and the earth gets the chance to reset itself. I don't see it as doom, just something inevitable, which we helped to cause. And it's the ones that do all they can to downplay the consequences who make the money, in every instance, as acceptance would be bad for business.
      - BurningFrog 2y ago
        Well, look at this section: > Climate tipping points — the "points of no return" past which key components of Earth's climate will begin to irreversibly break down — could be triggered by much lower temperatures than scientists previously thought, with some tipping points potentially already reached. There are also many more potential tipping points than scientists previously identified, according to a new study. I count to 3 maybes only there: 1. tipping points "could be triggered by much lower temperatures" 2. "some tipping points potentially already reached" 3. "according to a new study" Number 1 and 2 says that this may possibly happen, not that it will! Number 3 is the worst. Many - probably most - new studies with unexpected results turn out to be wrong, as the Replication Crisis has painfully taught us. They also get the most press, because "new study confirms what we thought" stories don't go viral. > it's the ones that do all they can to downplay the consequences who make the money That's absolutely not true in science or publishing. The most sensational results get the most attention and grants and ad dollars.
- pabs3 2y ago
  > SO2 injection in the stratosphere https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_Piercer#Plot https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_Piercer#Plot
  - BurningFrog 2y ago
    We know from studying when volcanoes spew SO₂ to the stratosphere that is breaks down by itself over 1-2 years. So if it somehow causes some unforeseen bad effect, we just have to wait a while as it goes away.
callamdelaney 2y ago
And in 299 years the climate may have changed again, as it is wont to do (and has always done).
- ClumsyPilot 2y ago
  And 65 million years ago an asteroid detonated with the power of all of the world’s nukes combined, so there is no need to worry about nuclear war. And timespans are like that for climate too, millions of years not 299
  - callamdelaney 2y ago
    The little ice age lasted from 1300 to 1850 [0], so 299 years is not orders of magnitudes off. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age
    - ClumsyPilot 2y ago
      That’s less that half a degree, barely noticeable. Climate change is predicted to be 6 degrees or thereabouts
      - callamdelaney 2y ago
        Wow I predict things too, they don't always come true. Remind me when we go up 6 degrees and i'll care.
- mmooss 2y ago
  Is that a subtle attempt to argue that climate is changing on it's own, and not by human agency? Say it if you mean it.
- nkrisc 2y ago
  And in 1000 years it will be different again. What’s your point? The fact it has and will always change doesn’t change anything about what’s happening now. We can choose to mitigate the change or make it worse for ourselves.

Further information on 13,000 islands: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538947.2024.2329816#abstract https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538947.2024.2... "Of over 13,000 islands examined, approximately 12% experienced significant shifts in shoreline positions. The total shoreline length of these islands approaches 200,000 km, with 7.57% showing signs of landward erosion and 6.05% expanding seaward. Human activities, particularly reclamation and land filling, were identified as primary drivers of local shoreline transformations, while natural factors have a comparatively minor impact. "

BurningFrog 2y ago

The island is certainly in the risk zone, but I think that is also unknowable. My guess is that by carbon sequestering and/or SO2 injection in the stratosphere, the climate change will be controllable within a few decades.

skeledrew 2y ago
It's very likely that we're already beyond some of the tipping points, and others are very close[0]. We're basically going into the mitigation phase now by my understanding. [0] https://www.space.com/climate-tipping-points-closer-than-realized https://www.space.com/climate-tipping-points-closer-than-rea...
- BurningFrog 2y ago
  I'm quite skeptical. If we lower the CO2 levels (carbon sequestering) and cool the planet by reflecting more sunlight (SO2 injection in the stratosphere), I'm sure these alleged tipping points will be tipped back again, given some time. It's good to be aware that doom sells, and the incentive to publish doom predictions for the money they make is very high. Of course, they can still be true... We'll see how it goes :)
  - ClumsyPilot 2y ago
    > If we lower the CO2 levels (carbon sequestering This is simply fantasy. Sequestering carbon mechanically is an energy losing process. It is also inefficient. If we burned oil in year 2,000 at (generously) 50% efficiency, it will cost us 4X more in year 2040 to sequester it at 50% (very generous) efficiency. On the face of it, we would need a sequestering industry that is 4X bigger than the oil industry, and it will be just losing money. Politically, it’s just not going to happen. Natural sequestration (I.e. tree planting) is not enough by a very large margin (like over 10x)
    - BurningFrog 2y ago
      Restoring CO₂ levels will use plenty of money and energy, however it's done. It can still be very much worth doing! I don't believe much in tree planting, since it uses up huge areas of the planet forever. The best way is to separate out CO2 from the atmosphere and pump it into underground cavities. This is the just reversing natural gas extraction, which means it's well established tech. Aside from the separating CO2 part, but that's being worked on. In a decade or three I expect solar powered machines like this slowly but surely turning the atmosphere back to normal.
  - skeledrew 2y ago
    I don't get the reason for skepticism, when this is coming from scientists who've been studying the field for many years, and have been making predictions that have been coming true. It's like an avalanche. After it starts you can't stop it or get all that snow back on the mountain; it has to get to level ground, melt (if it gets warm enough) and go through an entire cycle that takes time. So yes, things will likely tip back. After humanity either has already been wiped out or fully migrated to other planets and the earth gets the chance to reset itself. I don't see it as doom, just something inevitable, which we helped to cause. And it's the ones that do all they can to downplay the consequences who make the money, in every instance, as acceptance would be bad for business.
    - BurningFrog 2y ago
      Well, look at this section: > Climate tipping points — the "points of no return" past which key components of Earth's climate will begin to irreversibly break down — could be triggered by much lower temperatures than scientists previously thought, with some tipping points potentially already reached. There are also many more potential tipping points than scientists previously identified, according to a new study. I count to 3 maybes only there: 1. tipping points "could be triggered by much lower temperatures" 2. "some tipping points potentially already reached" 3. "according to a new study" Number 1 and 2 says that this may possibly happen, not that it will! Number 3 is the worst. Many - probably most - new studies with unexpected results turn out to be wrong, as the Replication Crisis has painfully taught us. They also get the most press, because "new study confirms what we thought" stories don't go viral. > it's the ones that do all they can to downplay the consequences who make the money That's absolutely not true in science or publishing. The most sensational results get the most attention and grants and ad dollars.
pabs3 2y ago
> SO2 injection in the stratosphere https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_Piercer#Plot https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_Piercer#Plot
- BurningFrog 2y ago
  We know from studying when volcanoes spew SO₂ to the stratosphere that is breaks down by itself over 1-2 years. So if it somehow causes some unforeseen bad effect, we just have to wait a while as it goes away.

callamdelaney 2y ago

And in 299 years the climate may have changed again, as it is wont to do (and has always done).

ClumsyPilot 2y ago
And 65 million years ago an asteroid detonated with the power of all of the world’s nukes combined, so there is no need to worry about nuclear war. And timespans are like that for climate too, millions of years not 299
- callamdelaney 2y ago
  The little ice age lasted from 1300 to 1850 [0], so 299 years is not orders of magnitudes off. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age
  - ClumsyPilot 2y ago
    That’s less that half a degree, barely noticeable. Climate change is predicted to be 6 degrees or thereabouts
    - callamdelaney 2y ago
      Wow I predict things too, they don't always come true. Remind me when we go up 6 degrees and i'll care.
mmooss 2y ago
Is that a subtle attempt to argue that climate is changing on it's own, and not by human agency? Say it if you mean it.
nkrisc 2y ago
And in 1000 years it will be different again. What’s your point? The fact it has and will always change doesn’t change anything about what’s happening now. We can choose to mitigate the change or make it worse for ourselves.