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The lease expires in 2123. The militarily strategic landscape then is pretty much unknowable. To a 1925 (99 years ago) military force, the Diego Garcia airfiel

The lease expires in 2123. The militarily strategic landscape then is pretty much unknowable. To a 1925 (99 years ago) military force, the Diego Garcia airfield would have had zero importance.

mmooss 2y ago
I wonder if they would have anticipated its value. I can anticipate a moon base would be valuable in 2123 even though it has little present value.
- input_sh 2y ago
  Considering that 99 years ago both Maldives and India were still colonised (and would remain so for decades), I'm gonna go out on a limb by saying that no, Chagos Islands weren't seen as particularly important back then.
throw0101d 2y ago
> The lease expires in 2123. The militarily strategic landscape then is pretty much unknowable. I bet that's what the UK thought about Hong Kong in the late 1800s, but when 1996 rolled around I think they (and many HKers) would have liked a longer-and-99-years lease. While geography isn't quite destiny, it is fairly important, and having a random rock in a place where there are no other rocks will always be useful IMHO (unless we perhaps develop teleportation).
BobAliceInATree 2y ago
in 99 years, most of the island probably will be underwater due to climate change.
- vixen99 2y ago
  Further information on 13,000 islands: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538947.2024.2329816#abstract https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538947.2024.2... "Of over 13,000 islands examined, approximately 12% experienced significant shifts in shoreline positions. The total shoreline length of these islands approaches 200,000 km, with 7.57% showing signs of landward erosion and 6.05% expanding seaward. Human activities, particularly reclamation and land filling, were identified as primary drivers of local shoreline transformations, while natural factors have a comparatively minor impact. "
- BurningFrog 2y ago
  The island is certainly in the risk zone, but I think that is also unknowable. My guess is that by carbon sequestering and/or SO2 injection in the stratosphere, the climate change will be controllable within a few decades.
  - skeledrew 2y ago
    It's very likely that we're already beyond some of the tipping points, and others are very close[0]. We're basically going into the mitigation phase now by my understanding. [0] https://www.space.com/climate-tipping-points-closer-than-realized https://www.space.com/climate-tipping-points-closer-than-rea...
    - BurningFrog 2y ago
      I'm quite skeptical. If we lower the CO2 levels (carbon sequestering) and cool the planet by reflecting more sunlight (SO2 injection in the stratosphere), I'm sure these alleged tipping points will be tipped back again, given some time. It's good to be aware that doom sells, and the incentive to publish doom predictions for the money they make is very high. Of course, they can still be true... We'll see how it goes :)
      - ClumsyPilot 2y ago
        > If we lower the CO2 levels (carbon sequestering This is simply fantasy. Sequestering carbon mechanically is an energy losing process. It is also inefficient. If we burned oil in year 2,000 at (generously) 50% efficiency, it will cost us 4X more in year 2040 to sequester it at 50% (very generous) efficiency. On the face of it, we would need a sequestering industry that is 4X bigger than the oil industry, and it will be just losing money. Politically, it’s just not going to happen. Natural sequestration (I.e. tree planting) is not enough by a very large margin (like over 10x)
        BurningFrog 2y ago
        Restoring CO₂ levels will use plenty of money and energy, however it's done. It can still be very much worth doing! I don't believe much in tree planting, since it uses up huge areas of the planet forever. The best way is to separate out CO2 from the atmosphere and pump it into underground cavities. This is the just reversing natural gas extraction, which means it's well established tech. Aside from the separating CO2 part, but that's being worked on. In a decade or three I expect solar powered machines like this slowly but surely turning the atmosphere back to normal.
- callamdelaney 2y ago
  And in 299 years the climate may have changed again, as it is wont to do (and has always done).
  - ClumsyPilot 2y ago
    And 65 million years ago an asteroid detonated with the power of all of the world’s nukes combined, so there is no need to worry about nuclear war. And timespans are like that for climate too, millions of years not 299
    - callamdelaney 2y ago
      The little ice age lasted from 1300 to 1850 [0], so 299 years is not orders of magnitudes off. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age
      - ClumsyPilot 2y ago
        That’s less that half a degree, barely noticeable. Climate change is predicted to be 6 degrees or thereabouts
        callamdelaney 2y ago
        Wow I predict things too, they don't always come true. Remind me when we go up 6 degrees and i'll care.
  - mmooss 2y ago
    Is that a subtle attempt to argue that climate is changing on it's own, and not by human agency? Say it if you mean it.
  - nkrisc 2y ago
    And in 1000 years it will be different again. What’s your point? The fact it has and will always change doesn’t change anything about what’s happening now. We can choose to mitigate the change or make it worse for ourselves.
gaadd33 2y ago
It would have had some value as a coaling or oiling station thought
- bunabhucan 2y ago
  Why would the worlds superpower need that when they had India?
logifail 2y ago
Q: Is there a reason for making a lease 99 years, rather than - say - 999 years?
- Maken 2y ago
  So they can renegotiate the terms of the leasing in a reasonable time span?
- noselasd 2y ago
  Historically 99 years was the longest term for leases in English laws. I don't think that's incorporated in laws any more, but it has just continued as common practice.
  - frereubu 2y ago
    You may be right historically, but I don't think it's common practice any more - there are quite a few "virtual freehold" leases of 999 years, and most other domestic leaseholds are 125+ years when they start. When a leashold goes below 90 years its value dips sharply.
- rswail 2y ago
  999 years is considered a "permanent" lease [1]. 99 years is considered a "more than a lifetime lease" [2] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/999-year_lease https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/999-year_lease [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99-year_lease https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99-year_lease

The lease expires in 2123. The militarily strategic landscape then is pretty much unknowable. To a 1925 (99 years ago) military force, the Diego Garcia airfield would have had zero importance.

mmooss 2y ago

I wonder if they would have anticipated its value. I can anticipate a moon base would be valuable in 2123 even though it has little present value.

input_sh 2y ago
Considering that 99 years ago both Maldives and India were still colonised (and would remain so for decades), I'm gonna go out on a limb by saying that no, Chagos Islands weren't seen as particularly important back then.

throw0101d 2y ago

> The lease expires in 2123. The militarily strategic landscape then is pretty much unknowable. I bet that's what the UK thought about Hong Kong in the late 1800s, but when 1996 rolled around I think they (and many HKers) would have liked a longer-and-99-years lease. While geography isn't quite destiny, it is fairly important, and having a random rock in a place where there are no other rocks will always be useful IMHO (unless we perhaps develop teleportation).

BobAliceInATree 2y ago

in 99 years, most of the island probably will be underwater due to climate change.

vixen99 2y ago
Further information on 13,000 islands: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538947.2024.2329816#abstract https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538947.2024.2... "Of over 13,000 islands examined, approximately 12% experienced significant shifts in shoreline positions. The total shoreline length of these islands approaches 200,000 km, with 7.57% showing signs of landward erosion and 6.05% expanding seaward. Human activities, particularly reclamation and land filling, were identified as primary drivers of local shoreline transformations, while natural factors have a comparatively minor impact. "
BurningFrog 2y ago
The island is certainly in the risk zone, but I think that is also unknowable. My guess is that by carbon sequestering and/or SO2 injection in the stratosphere, the climate change will be controllable within a few decades.
- skeledrew 2y ago
  It's very likely that we're already beyond some of the tipping points, and others are very close[0]. We're basically going into the mitigation phase now by my understanding. [0] https://www.space.com/climate-tipping-points-closer-than-realized https://www.space.com/climate-tipping-points-closer-than-rea...
  - BurningFrog 2y ago
    I'm quite skeptical. If we lower the CO2 levels (carbon sequestering) and cool the planet by reflecting more sunlight (SO2 injection in the stratosphere), I'm sure these alleged tipping points will be tipped back again, given some time. It's good to be aware that doom sells, and the incentive to publish doom predictions for the money they make is very high. Of course, they can still be true... We'll see how it goes :)
    - ClumsyPilot 2y ago
      > If we lower the CO2 levels (carbon sequestering This is simply fantasy. Sequestering carbon mechanically is an energy losing process. It is also inefficient. If we burned oil in year 2,000 at (generously) 50% efficiency, it will cost us 4X more in year 2040 to sequester it at 50% (very generous) efficiency. On the face of it, we would need a sequestering industry that is 4X bigger than the oil industry, and it will be just losing money. Politically, it’s just not going to happen. Natural sequestration (I.e. tree planting) is not enough by a very large margin (like over 10x)
      - BurningFrog 2y ago
        Restoring CO₂ levels will use plenty of money and energy, however it's done. It can still be very much worth doing! I don't believe much in tree planting, since it uses up huge areas of the planet forever. The best way is to separate out CO2 from the atmosphere and pump it into underground cavities. This is the just reversing natural gas extraction, which means it's well established tech. Aside from the separating CO2 part, but that's being worked on. In a decade or three I expect solar powered machines like this slowly but surely turning the atmosphere back to normal.
callamdelaney 2y ago
And in 299 years the climate may have changed again, as it is wont to do (and has always done).
- ClumsyPilot 2y ago
  And 65 million years ago an asteroid detonated with the power of all of the world’s nukes combined, so there is no need to worry about nuclear war. And timespans are like that for climate too, millions of years not 299
  - callamdelaney 2y ago
    The little ice age lasted from 1300 to 1850 [0], so 299 years is not orders of magnitudes off. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age
    - ClumsyPilot 2y ago
      That’s less that half a degree, barely noticeable. Climate change is predicted to be 6 degrees or thereabouts
      - callamdelaney 2y ago
        Wow I predict things too, they don't always come true. Remind me when we go up 6 degrees and i'll care.
- mmooss 2y ago
  Is that a subtle attempt to argue that climate is changing on it's own, and not by human agency? Say it if you mean it.
- nkrisc 2y ago
  And in 1000 years it will be different again. What’s your point? The fact it has and will always change doesn’t change anything about what’s happening now. We can choose to mitigate the change or make it worse for ourselves.

gaadd33 2y ago

It would have had some value as a coaling or oiling station thought

bunabhucan 2y ago
Why would the worlds superpower need that when they had India?

logifail 2y ago

Q: Is there a reason for making a lease 99 years, rather than - say - 999 years?

Maken 2y ago
So they can renegotiate the terms of the leasing in a reasonable time span?
noselasd 2y ago
Historically 99 years was the longest term for leases in English laws. I don't think that's incorporated in laws any more, but it has just continued as common practice.
- frereubu 2y ago
  You may be right historically, but I don't think it's common practice any more - there are quite a few "virtual freehold" leases of 999 years, and most other domestic leaseholds are 125+ years when they start. When a leashold goes below 90 years its value dips sharply.
rswail 2y ago
999 years is considered a "permanent" lease [1]. 99 years is considered a "more than a lifetime lease" [2] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/999-year_lease https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/999-year_lease [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99-year_lease https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99-year_lease