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This assumes companies have finite backlogs. AI will raise productivity, but to date no company has said 'our software is done, send all the programmers home.'

This assumes companies have finite backlogs. AI will raise productivity, but to date no company has said 'our software is done, send all the programmers home.' Instead companies expand what they want from their software. The rate of change could make the short term bumpy as companies try to play around with less dev work. Eventually though competition will push companies to raise their productivity to the new baseline (programmers + AI). One thing that is a danger is if devs ignore what's happening in AI. I remember when Google first came out having to learn the art of querying Google to get what I was looking for. AI/LLMs looks to be the same - ignore learning how to leverage them at your own peril.

roenxi 2y ago
> our software is done, send all the programmers home That does happen. Obviously no programmers employed at those companies to talk about it on HN though.
- caeril 2y ago
  This 100% does happen, all the time, mostly in SMB. Hire a team to build a project, when it's finally satisfied most of your requirements, you progressively cut staff until only Jim is left, and Jim spends the next two decades maintaining the system, growing out his hair and beard, piling kludge on top of kludge, and drinking heavily until retirement. The HN bubble, focused so intently on BigTech and FAANG, is woefully unaware of how things work basically everywhere else.
Phlarp 2y ago
>'our software is done, send all the programmers home.' Twitter
- __loam 2y ago
  According to Fidelity, Twitter has gone from a 44 billion dollar company to less than 10 in 2 years. Clearly we should not be using it as an example of how to run a technology business.
- ben_w 2y ago
  If only. Pre-musk, links to random tweets seemed to load almost instantly. Now? Last time I tried, took 48 seconds to show a "please login or create account" message. My Performa 5200 in the 1990s booted up faster than that. If he'd kept things as is, without fiddling, that would've been an improvement over what he actually did. Still, I'm glad he reduced my compulsive use of the service.

roenxi 2y ago

> our software is done, send all the programmers home That does happen. Obviously no programmers employed at those companies to talk about it on HN though.

caeril 2y ago
This 100% does happen, all the time, mostly in SMB. Hire a team to build a project, when it's finally satisfied most of your requirements, you progressively cut staff until only Jim is left, and Jim spends the next two decades maintaining the system, growing out his hair and beard, piling kludge on top of kludge, and drinking heavily until retirement. The HN bubble, focused so intently on BigTech and FAANG, is woefully unaware of how things work basically everywhere else.

Phlarp 2y ago

>'our software is done, send all the programmers home.' Twitter

__loam 2y ago
According to Fidelity, Twitter has gone from a 44 billion dollar company to less than 10 in 2 years. Clearly we should not be using it as an example of how to run a technology business.
ben_w 2y ago
If only. Pre-musk, links to random tweets seemed to load almost instantly. Now? Last time I tried, took 48 seconds to show a "please login or create account" message. My Performa 5200 in the 1990s booted up faster than that. If he'd kept things as is, without fiddling, that would've been an improvement over what he actually did. Still, I'm glad he reduced my compulsive use of the service.