7 ms·
Newton's financial misadventures in the South Sea Bubble (2018)
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- bdjsiqoocwk 2y agoThis article confirms that the common lore is broadly correct. Newton bought, stock goes up, Newton sells, realizes huge gains, stock goes up more, Newton buys again, stock crashes, Newton loses big.
- amelius 2y agoWhat goes up must come down. Newton of all people should have known.
- FredPret 2y agoStock investment can drive economic and technical development, which only needs to stop with the heat death of the universe. This particular stock was a massive bubble though.
- vasco 2y agoNewton should've invested in broad index ETFs, shame he was born a few hundred years too early.
- FredPret 2y agoShould've invented crypto!
- patapong 2y agoGiven that apple literally fell on hid head, he should have just invested in that
- rsynnott 2y agoNot _that_ far away from a similar concept, really: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_fund#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_fund#History He only missed mutual funds (or a reasonable analogue thereof) by 50 years or so, though presumably he'd have had trouble investing in _Dutch_ ones.
- jameshart 2y agoI don’t know - given that an object in motion remains in motion, he might have been more of a ‘line goes up’ HODLer…
- mr_toad 2y agoI don’t know who first derived the Earth’s escape velocity, but it requires calculus and Newton’s theory of gravity, so he should have been able to figure out that the old adage isn’t actually true.
- rsynnott 2y agoThat'd be Newton: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton%27s_cannonball https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton%27s_cannonball (I'm not sure if he actually derived earth's, but he was aware of escape velocity as a concept.)
- irq-1 2y agoFor a broader story, including Newtons running of the Royal Mint, check out: MONEY FOR NOTHING THE SCIENTISTS, FRAUDSTERS, AND CORRUPT POLITICIANS WHO REINVENTED MONEY, PANICKED A NATION, AND MADE THE WORLD RICH https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/thomas-levenson/money-for-nothing-scientists/ https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/thomas-levenson/m...
- FredPret 2y agoFor an lengthy but amazing alternate-reality account of same (and much... much more), check out Neal Stephenson's Baroque Cycle
- Onavo 2y agoFor a more rigorous treatment, try Paul Wiltmott's (a famous quant) The Money Formula https://www.amazon.com/Money-Formula-Finance-Science-Mathematicians/dp/1119358612 https://www.amazon.com/Money-Formula-Finance-Science-Mathema...
- notfish 2y agoThe audiobooks are pretty well narrated too, great for anyone who needs 160 hours of audio
- FredPret 2y agoVery true. Then you get to Cryptonomicon - which is set in the same universe. I think it's the best audiobook I've ever listened to.
- downrightmike 2y agoMore about the whole thing: England: South Sea Bubble - The Sharp Mind of John Blunt - Extra History - Part 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1kndKWJKB8&list=PL931Bkj5KLMtJ4AMegQtekqKcCy14FCec https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1kndKWJKB8&list=PL931Bkj5KL...
- pvg 2y agoCouple of previous discussions from 2018 and 2019 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16245284 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16245284 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21007541 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21007541
- dang 2y agoThanks! Macroexpanded: Isaac Newton's Financial Misadventures in the South Sea Bubble - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29032752 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29032752 - Oct 2021 (1 comment) Newton's Financial Misadventures in the South Sea Bubble - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21007541 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21007541 - Sept 2019 (15 comments) Newton’s Financial Misadventures in the South Sea Bubble [pdf] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16245284 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16245284 - Jan 2018 (35 comments)
- bruce511 2y agoOne of the things I found interesting recently was that the "South Sea" part of the name refers to the South Atlantic. I'd always inferred that the "South Sea" was the South Pacific. I suppose the term "South Pacific" is ingrained in the language, so naturally my mind takes me there with "South Sea". Anyway, just one of those long-held beliefs that turns out yo be false.
- badpun 2y agoDoh, I always thought it as South China Sea!
- mikrl 2y agoSouth Seas in popular culture typically does refer to the South Pacific and Polynesia though. I’d also say the South China Sea too. But in Newton’s day yes, I think the colonial adventures were still very much focused on the Atlantic.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- ren_engineer 2y agoNewton should have known to always leave a moon bag
- hermitcrab 2y agoOne of the smartest people who ever lived and he was still suckered, due to greed.
- richrichie 2y agoPrecisely why one should not place much emphasis on the takes of people like Paul Graham and LeCun outside their specialization. They are as susceptible as anyone to be suckered into an ideology.
- Log_out_ 2y ago[flagged]
- TheAmazingRace 2y agoThe same can also be said for Dr. Jordan Peterson. He has expertise only within his specific domain, but then once he gets political or discusses the concept of God, he comes off as uninformed and out of his element.
- sumtechguy 2y agoIQ does not mean one thing. It is a range of things. You can be totally brilliant at one thing and a complete fool on something else. It is what I call the smart person trap. You know you are smart at one thing. So therefor you are smart so therefore you are probably good at everything. Poor logic. I heard a con artist put it this way 'i love suckering smart people they think they are never wrong'.
- nialv7 2y agoIs someone actually smart when they aren't smart enough to realise that they can be wrong?
- sumtechguy 2y agoYou would think that. But it is ego that takes over.
- secondbreakfast 2y ago[flagged]
- kirubakaran 2y agoMuch better chart someone posted in an older thread: https://i.imgur.com/AEzxuLy.jpg https://i.imgur.com/AEzxuLy.jpg