4 ms·
This is a company at a $4 bill annual run rate. In times gone by this would be a public company already. It's just an investment in a company with almost 2000
by danielmarkbruce 2y ago
This is a company at a $4 bill annual run rate.
In times gone by this would be a public company already. It's just an investment in a company with almost 2000 employees, revenue, products, brand etc. It's not an early stage VC investment, they aren't looking for a 10x.
The legal and compliance regime + depth of private capital + fear of reported vol in the US has made private investing the new public investing.
- s1artibartfast 2y agoExpected return is set by risk and upside, not offering size. What do you think the risk of ruin is here? I think there is a substantial chance that Open AI wont exist in 5 years.
- danielmarkbruce 2y agoThere was an implication in there on risk. If you don't believe a company doing $4 bill of revenue is significantly less risky than the average VC investment, you might be in dreamworld.
- s1artibartfast 2y agoMy understanding is that it is 4B of losses, not revenue.
- danielmarkbruce 2y agoBoth are approximately true. But, anything software has some accounting for things (like training a model) that really should be categorized as capex instead of opex and it distorts the numbers.
- s1artibartfast 2y agoMy understanding was that total revenue was an order of magnitude lower, in the multi-millions.
- danielmarkbruce 2y agoNo, it's reported to be at a run rate of $4 bill pa.
- doctorpangloss 2y agoAnother POV is that, how many new household names familiar to adults can you think of? Since 2015? Basically TikTok and ChatGPT. If you include kids you get Fortnite, Snapchat and Roblox. Do you see why this is such a big deal?
- staticman2 2y agoMoviepass was a new tech driven household name in my social circle back in 2017. It... didn't end well.
- danielmarkbruce 2y ago"tech driven" is very generous.