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SpaceX being the most competent at their game doesn’t change the fact that Musk’s plans are pure fantasy. My bet is that won’t see any people going to Mars duri

• ralfd 2y ago
  I wouldn’t bet against you. He has only 27 years left until he is 80. Maybe he will get 100 years old, maybe he will get a heart infarct next year. But this will make the matter more urgent for him, there is no reason for him to take it slow and steady, the opposite, he will push Starship hard. The next few years it will be vital for NASAs Moon landing. And after establishing a fuel depot in Earth orbit, which sounds science fiction now but is the plan for Artemis III, there will be whole new possibilities.
• ben_w 2y ago
  Everything he's started or meaningfully invested into has been fantasy when he did that, some of them were turned into reality. Starship is still interesting even if they don't build a Mars colony. Or a moon colony. Or low orbit hotels. Or asteroid mining. I think that even if they send some test missions on the Mars launch window 2 years from now, plenty will go wrong, and the same for the next window 4 year's from now. If Musk hasn't made too many political enemies to continue by that point, then they probably have a reasonable short for a crewed mission in the launch window after that, 6 years from now. If SpaceX doesn't have a demonstration Sabatier process plant that fits into a Starship by the beginning of 2028, they've stopped caring about going to Mars. ISRU is too important, so even if they actually send any ships that way, without a Sabatier plant they would be no more relevant than the trans-Martian Roadster.