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by mr90210 2y ago

j4coh 2y ago
Is there any evidence they have already peaked?
- Jensson 2y ago
  Its already priced in, things are still moving as expected. They could go up higher in the future, but not from this information.
  - manishsharan 2y ago
    No. This is the same logic that I used when I did not buy Amazon and missed that ride. The market is not always rational.
    - CBLT 2y ago
      My hot take: the market is good at pricing in possibilities, but less so at pricing in certainty (or lack thereof). When AMD launched the Zen architecture, everyone said they were on the up-and-up, and the market gave them a boost. The company's shares only started to climb much higher later on, when there were irrefutable revenue numbers. There was plenty of time to buy and make money. Someone with the domain knowledge like us can definitely have an edge in the market because we understand the product well enough to formulate better odds, then we can profit off the difference between our odds and the market's odds.
  - reducesuffering 2y ago
    You don’t know if it’s priced in. Was it priced in 5 years ago?
    - Wytwwww 2y ago
      Nobody (well the market) expected Nvidia's revenue to start growing exponentially, though. Now it's forecasted to grow by at least 20% per year for the next 3 years. So presumably everything above that is not priced in.
      - lumost 2y ago
        6.5 Billion won't move NVidia's needle at this point. You need exponentially growing revenue from AI firms to drive increased spend on compute.
      - reducesuffering 2y ago
        Actually people did expect that, which is why the market does not accurately "price things in." People working in ML, Cuda, ~GPT2 were pretty confident in the eventual impact of AI and knew of Nvidia's monopoly on it. There's a sort of midwit meme here where the naive take "oh this company is going to sell more next year, i should by stock at whatever price", -> "no, everything's already priced in" -> "if everything was priced in, you'd see a historic price graph as a straight line with a slope of interest rates"
        Wytwwww 2y ago
        > Actually people did expect that Obviously some did and they made a lot of money. So what? The market as a whole didn't. > There's a sort of midwit If the company grows by as much as it is expected to grow barring any external factors then yes, your "meme" certainly makes sense.
    - RivieraKid 2y ago
      Anything obvious is priced in.
      - reducesuffering 2y ago
        What if I were to tell you Nvidia's monopoly and the implications of AI were obvious many years ago? Many people on HN bought large amounts of Nvidia stock a while ago. Karpathy's "Software 2.0" was widely read here predating much of Nvidia's market cap increase: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15678587 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15678587 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34881881 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34881881 It was "obvious" C3.AI was not a real AI company worth much. The market still "priced in" at $18 billion for months: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AI/ https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AI/
        RivieraKid 2y ago
        If "obviously undervalued stocks" were a widespread phenomenon, active investors that beat the market in the long-term wouldn't be a rarity.
    - crazygringo 2y ago
      If it's news on a major website, it's priced in. So yes, we know it is priced in. Obviously, it wasn't news 5 years ago, so no it wasn't then. There is a gray area which is where professional investors who have an informational advantage make their money. But by the time something is mainstream news, that gray area is long gone.
      - _sword 2y ago
        CEG jumping 20% on the MSFT deal means it isn’t all priced in imo. Everyone has known there are rising energy needs and had bid up CEG. Then the Three Mile Island restart news hit and apparently it wasn’t already priced in
    - Jensson 2y ago
      > You don’t know if it’s priced in. Was it priced in 5 years ago? It wasn't priced in 5 years ago, that is the point today it is priced it, people expected this. You should have bought when Microsoft invested billions in them 2019, today more investments like this are expected once these investments stop NVIDIA stock will drop since they were expected. So saying now is the time to invest is dead wrong, NVIDIA is currently priced as if these investments will continue to ramp up so these things are already priced in. Only idiots thinks "positive event -> I must buy stocks!", no if the positive event was expected then the stocks wont move, if a positive event was expected but didn't happen then stocks go down, that is the situation we are in currently with NVIDIA. How do you know it was priced in? You look at what people say they expect, and this is what people say they expected, hence we know it was priced in.
- paxys 2y ago
  What kind of "evidence" of future stock market movement are you expecting?
  - j4coh 2y ago
    Any kind of signal in current buying or selling behaviour on either the stock or its derivatives that might indicate the price is going to plateau or fall, such as (for example) a change in the market for shorts.. though this seems obvious and I don’t mean to be insulting, so I might be misunderstanding your question? If so please let me know.
    - RivieraKid 2y ago
      There's no such thing. If there was, market participants would start selling.
      - j4coh 2y ago
        If there are no signals which people can use as evidence in their models predicting market direction, what are people buying or selling on? Why would anyone read a quarterly report or have an investment thesis if it’s just a perfectly efficient market of spherical cows on a random walk, and analysis is a fools game as no evidence of where a company might be headed could possibly exist? It’s a very postmodern way of looking at things, I suppose. Anyway I was just curious if the person had any facts on which they were basing their assessment that they could share. Seems not, which is fine. Opinions are allowed too, but I was curious since they stated it so matter if factly.
- RivieraKid 2y ago
  Are you serious?
- deelowe 2y ago
  Well, Microsoft certainly is running into some challenges at this point: https://www.sciencefriday.com/segments/microsoft-open-three-mile-island/ https://www.sciencefriday.com/segments/microsoft-open-three-... If nothing else, physics starts to become a limiting factor.
  - Loughla 2y ago
    I legitimately want to live in a world where fundamental physics is the only limiting factor to our work. That sounds like the future.
    - 93po 2y ago
      i want to live in a world where super science is invented and we get sci fi tech
    - bookofjoe 2y ago
      The fundamentals of physics can change.
shreezus 2y ago
If ASI is on the horizon & is bound by compute, compute effectively is the new oil.
- paxys 2y ago
  That "if" is doing a lot of heavy lifting.
- ac29 2y ago
  Oil is a commodity, which wouldn't bode that well for any current compute provider long term. Nvidia's success in particular seemed to spawn a lot of new chip designs. Quite a few startups, but also AMD and Intel are some degree of serious with their training/inference offerings for datacenter.

You are already late.

j4coh 2y ago

Is there any evidence they have already peaked?

Jensson 2y ago
Its already priced in, things are still moving as expected. They could go up higher in the future, but not from this information.
- manishsharan 2y ago
  No. This is the same logic that I used when I did not buy Amazon and missed that ride. The market is not always rational.
  - CBLT 2y ago
    My hot take: the market is good at pricing in possibilities, but less so at pricing in certainty (or lack thereof). When AMD launched the Zen architecture, everyone said they were on the up-and-up, and the market gave them a boost. The company's shares only started to climb much higher later on, when there were irrefutable revenue numbers. There was plenty of time to buy and make money. Someone with the domain knowledge like us can definitely have an edge in the market because we understand the product well enough to formulate better odds, then we can profit off the difference between our odds and the market's odds.
- reducesuffering 2y ago
  You don’t know if it’s priced in. Was it priced in 5 years ago?
  - Wytwwww 2y ago
    Nobody (well the market) expected Nvidia's revenue to start growing exponentially, though. Now it's forecasted to grow by at least 20% per year for the next 3 years. So presumably everything above that is not priced in.
    - lumost 2y ago
      6.5 Billion won't move NVidia's needle at this point. You need exponentially growing revenue from AI firms to drive increased spend on compute.
    - reducesuffering 2y ago
      Actually people did expect that, which is why the market does not accurately "price things in." People working in ML, Cuda, ~GPT2 were pretty confident in the eventual impact of AI and knew of Nvidia's monopoly on it. There's a sort of midwit meme here where the naive take "oh this company is going to sell more next year, i should by stock at whatever price", -> "no, everything's already priced in" -> "if everything was priced in, you'd see a historic price graph as a straight line with a slope of interest rates"
      - Wytwwww 2y ago
        > Actually people did expect that Obviously some did and they made a lot of money. So what? The market as a whole didn't. > There's a sort of midwit If the company grows by as much as it is expected to grow barring any external factors then yes, your "meme" certainly makes sense.
  - RivieraKid 2y ago
    Anything obvious is priced in.
    - reducesuffering 2y ago
      What if I were to tell you Nvidia's monopoly and the implications of AI were obvious many years ago? Many people on HN bought large amounts of Nvidia stock a while ago. Karpathy's "Software 2.0" was widely read here predating much of Nvidia's market cap increase: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15678587 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15678587 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34881881 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34881881 It was "obvious" C3.AI was not a real AI company worth much. The market still "priced in" at $18 billion for months: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AI/ https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AI/
      - RivieraKid 2y ago
        If "obviously undervalued stocks" were a widespread phenomenon, active investors that beat the market in the long-term wouldn't be a rarity.
  - crazygringo 2y ago
    If it's news on a major website, it's priced in. So yes, we know it is priced in. Obviously, it wasn't news 5 years ago, so no it wasn't then. There is a gray area which is where professional investors who have an informational advantage make their money. But by the time something is mainstream news, that gray area is long gone.
    - _sword 2y ago
      CEG jumping 20% on the MSFT deal means it isn’t all priced in imo. Everyone has known there are rising energy needs and had bid up CEG. Then the Three Mile Island restart news hit and apparently it wasn’t already priced in
  - Jensson 2y ago
    > You don’t know if it’s priced in. Was it priced in 5 years ago? It wasn't priced in 5 years ago, that is the point today it is priced it, people expected this. You should have bought when Microsoft invested billions in them 2019, today more investments like this are expected once these investments stop NVIDIA stock will drop since they were expected. So saying now is the time to invest is dead wrong, NVIDIA is currently priced as if these investments will continue to ramp up so these things are already priced in. Only idiots thinks "positive event -> I must buy stocks!", no if the positive event was expected then the stocks wont move, if a positive event was expected but didn't happen then stocks go down, that is the situation we are in currently with NVIDIA. How do you know it was priced in? You look at what people say they expect, and this is what people say they expected, hence we know it was priced in.
paxys 2y ago
What kind of "evidence" of future stock market movement are you expecting?
- j4coh 2y ago
  Any kind of signal in current buying or selling behaviour on either the stock or its derivatives that might indicate the price is going to plateau or fall, such as (for example) a change in the market for shorts.. though this seems obvious and I don’t mean to be insulting, so I might be misunderstanding your question? If so please let me know.
  - RivieraKid 2y ago
    There's no such thing. If there was, market participants would start selling.
    - j4coh 2y ago
      If there are no signals which people can use as evidence in their models predicting market direction, what are people buying or selling on? Why would anyone read a quarterly report or have an investment thesis if it’s just a perfectly efficient market of spherical cows on a random walk, and analysis is a fools game as no evidence of where a company might be headed could possibly exist? It’s a very postmodern way of looking at things, I suppose. Anyway I was just curious if the person had any facts on which they were basing their assessment that they could share. Seems not, which is fine. Opinions are allowed too, but I was curious since they stated it so matter if factly.
RivieraKid 2y ago
Are you serious?
deelowe 2y ago
Well, Microsoft certainly is running into some challenges at this point: https://www.sciencefriday.com/segments/microsoft-open-three-mile-island/ https://www.sciencefriday.com/segments/microsoft-open-three-... If nothing else, physics starts to become a limiting factor.
- Loughla 2y ago
  I legitimately want to live in a world where fundamental physics is the only limiting factor to our work. That sounds like the future.
  - 93po 2y ago
    i want to live in a world where super science is invented and we get sci fi tech
  - bookofjoe 2y ago
    The fundamentals of physics can change.

shreezus 2y ago

If ASI is on the horizon & is bound by compute, compute effectively is the new oil.

paxys 2y ago
That "if" is doing a lot of heavy lifting.
ac29 2y ago
Oil is a commodity, which wouldn't bode that well for any current compute provider long term. Nvidia's success in particular seemed to spawn a lot of new chip designs. Quite a few startups, but also AMD and Intel are some degree of serious with their training/inference offerings for datacenter.