4 ms·

o1 can already do your job. Have you tried it?

by comeonbro 2y ago

golly_ned 2y ago
I tried it. o1 cannot do my job, and hallucinated immediately.
- FrustratedMonky 2y ago
  So you are using the old-stand-by-argument: "my job is safe, so if society collapses around me, I'm still all good, pass the beer". It can't do my job, so it can't do any jobs?
almatabata 2y ago
It can take responsibility for production code and get fired when it produces sub-standard work?
- visarga 2y ago
  We need to invent AI punishments to get it to be responsible. /s Accountability requires that you have a body.
bee_rider 2y ago
Everyone thinks AI can do somebody else’s job. I dunno, maybe they are right, but it seems like there might be some bias. Can AI do your job?
- giardini 2y ago
  Suppose AI can do anyone's job. Then, after massive layoffs, no one would receive a paycheck. How would that produce a burgeoning economy? Or indeed, any economy.
  - bee_rider 2y ago
    If we don’t need any services, we don’t need any people. And if we don’t need any people, we don’t need any services. Technically, “let’s all die” has always been a solution that balances the equations of the economy; actually it is the simplest one: 0=0. But, we’ve muddled along somehow.
- dopylitty 2y ago
  This is the fundamental reality I keep seeing. The people who think an LLM or other type of model can do a job are the people who don't know anything about that job. Managers who don't know what developers do think you can replace a developer with an LLM. Can an LLM shit out some code? Sure, but that's hardly what (good) developers do. Magazine publishers who don't know what editors do think an LLM can replace an editor. Can an LLM make a bunch of statements about the quality of a piece of writing? Sure, but they may have no basis in reality and will require a real human editor to review them. Or your publication can succumb to being LLM generated slop. Bad coders who don't know what good coders do see that an LLM can do what they've been doing and think developers will be replaced but they don't actually realize what it means to be a developer so they don't see all the things the LLM isn't doing. Tech bros think a model will be able to revolutionize materials development but when actual materials scientists look at the output it turns out it's mostly garbage. And crucially it took actual materials scientists spending a whole lot of time to figure that out. [0] Most of what these models do is waste actual experts' time by forcing them to wade through huge quantities of plausible looking but completely incorrect output. 0: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.chemmater.4c00643 https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.chemmater.4c00643
  - bee_rider 2y ago
    The main thing I see (and it is possible I’m biased by some of these same factors), is that it does seem to make some moderately helpful tools? Like coding assistants, to knock out boilerplate. Maybe if it could make a developer twice as effective, it could halve the developers to project ratio. Jevons paradox, and we get twice as many projects, great. But the management requirements would be different, right? If teams are half as large, wouldn’t expect management to just, like, go away. But the tree might be able to lose some middle “summarize and pass up” levels, right?
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    - orwin 2y ago
      Basically it helps with really generic stuff, but writing generic stuff isn't my job. I have access to windows copilot pro (basically ChatGPT 4 Turbo/ 4o depending of the time of the day) as a tester, and github copilot as a user, i can say without hesitation that ChatGPT is sightly better to write comments, but both are bad to do anything harder than writing HTML forms, at least from scratch. They _are_ a great rubber duck though, today i had a concurrency issue and asked windows copilot for solutions. It was wrong, but gave me an idea, basically saving me at least 45 minutes. Github copilot is a great autocomplete, saving me some time too, but i don't think it can make me twice as effective as a coder. 20%? Maybe 40% if i take into account the fact that it generate really good test cases (that i still have to read)? But coding is like 25 percent of my job, database/object design and software architecture are like 30%, network security another 25%, and the rest is meetings/coordination, so all in all, i don't think you can halve teams because you give them good genAI
tannedNerd 2y ago
It can if you have someone knowledgeable driving it. Otherwise it gives out wrong or outdated information enough that it would quickly cause bugs in production code. And that’s the thing it can do narrow scopes of a job well but ask it to do the entire task it will often mess up somewhere slightly enough to cause a snowball effect of failures by the time it’s “done”
lm28469 2y ago
If your job is copy pasting stack overflow responses sure. If you work on something specific, need to talk to client, need to brainstorm ideas, it's still very meh at best. chatgpt has been here for what ? 24 months ? Unemployment rate is the same as ever, maybe a bit on the lower side if anything. If it was the miracle they promised we would see it everywhere: gdp, unemployment rate, productivity, &c.

o1 can already do your job. Have you tried it?

golly_ned 2y ago

I tried it. o1 cannot do my job, and hallucinated immediately.

FrustratedMonky 2y ago
So you are using the old-stand-by-argument: "my job is safe, so if society collapses around me, I'm still all good, pass the beer". It can't do my job, so it can't do any jobs?

almatabata 2y ago

It can take responsibility for production code and get fired when it produces sub-standard work?

visarga 2y ago
We need to invent AI punishments to get it to be responsible. /s Accountability requires that you have a body.

bee_rider 2y ago

Everyone thinks AI can do somebody else’s job. I dunno, maybe they are right, but it seems like there might be some bias. Can AI do your job?

giardini 2y ago
Suppose AI can do anyone's job. Then, after massive layoffs, no one would receive a paycheck. How would that produce a burgeoning economy? Or indeed, any economy.
- bee_rider 2y ago
  If we don’t need any services, we don’t need any people. And if we don’t need any people, we don’t need any services. Technically, “let’s all die” has always been a solution that balances the equations of the economy; actually it is the simplest one: 0=0. But, we’ve muddled along somehow.
dopylitty 2y ago
This is the fundamental reality I keep seeing. The people who think an LLM or other type of model can do a job are the people who don't know anything about that job. Managers who don't know what developers do think you can replace a developer with an LLM. Can an LLM shit out some code? Sure, but that's hardly what (good) developers do. Magazine publishers who don't know what editors do think an LLM can replace an editor. Can an LLM make a bunch of statements about the quality of a piece of writing? Sure, but they may have no basis in reality and will require a real human editor to review them. Or your publication can succumb to being LLM generated slop. Bad coders who don't know what good coders do see that an LLM can do what they've been doing and think developers will be replaced but they don't actually realize what it means to be a developer so they don't see all the things the LLM isn't doing. Tech bros think a model will be able to revolutionize materials development but when actual materials scientists look at the output it turns out it's mostly garbage. And crucially it took actual materials scientists spending a whole lot of time to figure that out. [0] Most of what these models do is waste actual experts' time by forcing them to wade through huge quantities of plausible looking but completely incorrect output. 0: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.chemmater.4c00643 https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.chemmater.4c00643
- bee_rider 2y ago
  The main thing I see (and it is possible I’m biased by some of these same factors), is that it does seem to make some moderately helpful tools? Like coding assistants, to knock out boilerplate. Maybe if it could make a developer twice as effective, it could halve the developers to project ratio. Jevons paradox, and we get twice as many projects, great. But the management requirements would be different, right? If teams are half as large, wouldn’t expect management to just, like, go away. But the tree might be able to lose some middle “summarize and pass up” levels, right?
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - orwin 2y ago
    Basically it helps with really generic stuff, but writing generic stuff isn't my job. I have access to windows copilot pro (basically ChatGPT 4 Turbo/ 4o depending of the time of the day) as a tester, and github copilot as a user, i can say without hesitation that ChatGPT is sightly better to write comments, but both are bad to do anything harder than writing HTML forms, at least from scratch. They _are_ a great rubber duck though, today i had a concurrency issue and asked windows copilot for solutions. It was wrong, but gave me an idea, basically saving me at least 45 minutes. Github copilot is a great autocomplete, saving me some time too, but i don't think it can make me twice as effective as a coder. 20%? Maybe 40% if i take into account the fact that it generate really good test cases (that i still have to read)? But coding is like 25 percent of my job, database/object design and software architecture are like 30%, network security another 25%, and the rest is meetings/coordination, so all in all, i don't think you can halve teams because you give them good genAI

tannedNerd 2y ago

It can if you have someone knowledgeable driving it. Otherwise it gives out wrong or outdated information enough that it would quickly cause bugs in production code. And that’s the thing it can do narrow scopes of a job well but ask it to do the entire task it will often mess up somewhere slightly enough to cause a snowball effect of failures by the time it’s “done”

lm28469 2y ago

If your job is copy pasting stack overflow responses sure. If you work on something specific, need to talk to client, need to brainstorm ideas, it's still very meh at best. chatgpt has been here for what ? 24 months ? Unemployment rate is the same as ever, maybe a bit on the lower side if anything. If it was the miracle they promised we would see it everywhere: gdp, unemployment rate, productivity, &c.