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The risk is that the combined market caps of AI firms exceed 1 Trillion dollars now. This market cap is likely supported by several Billion dollars in Revenue,
by lumost 2y ago
The risk is that the combined market caps of AI firms exceed 1 Trillion dollars now. This market cap is likely supported by several Billion dollars in Revenue, but margins are debatable outside of NVidia due to capex/opex of inference, training, and data acquisition.
These valuations only make sense if the future free cash flow of these AI firms reach the ~100 Billion dollar mark within the next 3-5 years. It's somewhat unclear what the path here is if one takes the position that
a) 1 billion people are not going to spend 100/year on ChatGPT like subscriptions.
b) White collar productivity is not going to increase by 80%.