4 ms·

Step 1: Get the patents. Step 2: Wait for the tech to mature. Step 3: $$$

hn_throwaway_99 2y ago
Except in this case your "Wait for the tech to mature" step is basically the same "Step 2: ???" from the underpants gnomes. That is, how is this tech supposed to "mature" in any way to be actually commercially viable or an improvement upon much simpler methods for "moving stuff around"? Anything that ups the load means you're going to essentially have a giant copter you have to push around. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure there are cool algorithms used for the stabilization and "push-sensing" features, but I can't see how in any possible universe that this tech will be viable for the purported use case.
- xbmcuser 2y ago
  Yeah you probably need sci Fi anti gravity type device to make something like this possible.
  - sandworm101 2y ago
    Or you could use wheels to transfer the load directly to the ground, bypassing the need for lifting motors.
    - __MatrixMan__ 2y ago
      Too soon. Wheels aren't retro just yet.
    - TeMPOraL 2y ago
      Yes, but wheels don't work for arbitrary terrain, including long enough stretches going vertical or backwards[0], or liquid or gaseous terrain like rivers and large holes in the ground. -- [0] - think terrain looking like this: /----------- \--- \ ---------\
      - sandworm101 2y ago
        > wheels don't work for arbitrary terrain You just need a bigger wheel.
        TeMPOraL 2y ago
        That's why I said "arbitrary" - to mean "bigger than the wheel you have".
        sandworm101 2y ago
        This is a cart being pushed by a person. So we can assume no terrain beyond what a person could reasonably step over.
        TeMPOraL 2y ago
        This is a cart that can climb on its own - which means the person pushing it can climb independently. There's a class of conditions where this combo can work, and wheeled cart won't. Whether this class of conditions is something you'd encounter in practice (as opposed to adapting things to make an existing alternative usable) is another thing; I outlined some potential niche use-cases here[0]. -- [0] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41627135 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41627135
        hn_throwaway_99 2y ago
        Terrain-following aerial drone tech already exists and has for a long time.
        TeMPOraL 2y ago
        Sure, and this is terrain-following aerial drone tech that also keeps a cargo platform balanced, so why not use it to fly up/over the terrain rather than follow easy path?
  - TeMPOraL 2y ago
    That's the problem, though. Some Zefram Cochrane figures out how to work subspace, but all the profit from antigrav sleds will go to whoever won the patents for a pallet mounted on a quadcopter 40 years earlier. (Star Trek avoided this fate by having World War 3 happening in between today and warp drive.)
- mschuster91 2y ago
  > That is, how is this tech supposed to "mature" in any way to be actually commercially viable or an improvement upon much simpler methods for "moving stuff around"? Doesn't need to be commercially viable, military viable is more than enough. Stick a gun or two on it and you got a version of the recent Ukrainian breakthrough "Fury" UGV [1] that doesn't depend on maneuverable terrain. Or combine it with some wheels to create a two-way vehicle that can drive efficiently on somewhat decent terrain but "air hop" over obstacles. Something like 30 minutes of flight time should already be no issue, that's enough to clear a trench. Warfare was always nasty to begin with, but since the advents of robotic vehicles being used against humans... phew. [1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/09/19/ukraines-gun-armed-ground-robot-just-cleared-a-russian-trench-in-kursk/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/09/19/ukraines-gu...
  - hn_throwaway_99 2y ago
    Are you trying to prove my point? The Fury UGV you link to is a gun on wheels, which I see as infinitely more usable and viable than this Palletrone contraption. And in cases where you would want flight capability, why wouldn't you just use a standard aerial drone (obviously used already to great effect in the Ukraine war)?
    - mschuster91 2y ago
      > The Fury UGV you link to is a gun on wheels, which I see as infinitely more usable and viable than this Palletrone contraption. Palletrone is by all means a demonstrator that the idea is possible, an utter MVP. > And in cases where you would want flight capability, why wouldn't you just use a standard aerial drone (obviously used already to great effect in the Ukraine war)? The key thing IMHO is the fusion of aerial and ground movement. A gun on wheels is nice but it's immediately stopped in its tracks by anything from swampy terrain ("rasputiza") over a random trench to hedgehogs [1], not to mention mines. Give it aerial capability, even if it's just enough to hop over a hedgehog or a smaller river, and the ability to defend itself while airborne, and the game becomes much more serious. All you need to be is the first one to actually pull it off and hope it's enough of a surprise effect that the enemy gets hindered long enough that you can make some military gain out of it. Side thought: I wonder how much downforce a drone can actually exert on the ground. Could a heavy enough drone with serious bottom armor be powerful enough to detonate anti-personnel mines without being endangered in the process? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_hedgehog https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_hedgehog
- profsummergig 2y ago
  “No Wireless. Less Space than a Nomad. Lame.”
  - hn_throwaway_99 2y ago
    Do you think this counts as an argument? Because I'm quite sure which device I think is analogous to the Nomad in this situation... If you have any actual thoughts on how a device like this could ever be relevant in the real world, I'm all ears.
amelius 2y ago
No, obviously it goes like: Step 1: Impress investors Step 2: Get $$$ Step 3: ???

Except in this case your "Wait for the tech to mature" step is basically the same "Step 2: ???" from the underpants gnomes. That is, how is this tech supposed to "mature" in any way to be actually commercially viable or an improvement upon much simpler methods for "moving stuff around"? Anything that ups the load means you're going to essentially have a giant copter you have to push around. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure there are cool algorithms used for the stabilization and "push-sensing" features, but I can't see how in any possible universe that this tech will be viable for the purported use case.

xbmcuser 2y ago
Yeah you probably need sci Fi anti gravity type device to make something like this possible.
- sandworm101 2y ago
  Or you could use wheels to transfer the load directly to the ground, bypassing the need for lifting motors.
  - __MatrixMan__ 2y ago
    Too soon. Wheels aren't retro just yet.
  - TeMPOraL 2y ago
    Yes, but wheels don't work for arbitrary terrain, including long enough stretches going vertical or backwards[0], or liquid or gaseous terrain like rivers and large holes in the ground. -- [0] - think terrain looking like this: /----------- \--- \ ---------\
    - sandworm101 2y ago
      > wheels don't work for arbitrary terrain You just need a bigger wheel.
      - TeMPOraL 2y ago
        That's why I said "arbitrary" - to mean "bigger than the wheel you have".
        sandworm101 2y ago
        This is a cart being pushed by a person. So we can assume no terrain beyond what a person could reasonably step over.
        TeMPOraL 2y ago
        This is a cart that can climb on its own - which means the person pushing it can climb independently. There's a class of conditions where this combo can work, and wheeled cart won't. Whether this class of conditions is something you'd encounter in practice (as opposed to adapting things to make an existing alternative usable) is another thing; I outlined some potential niche use-cases here[0]. -- [0] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41627135 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41627135
        hn_throwaway_99 2y ago
        Terrain-following aerial drone tech already exists and has for a long time.
        TeMPOraL 2y ago
        Sure, and this is terrain-following aerial drone tech that also keeps a cargo platform balanced, so why not use it to fly up/over the terrain rather than follow easy path?
- TeMPOraL 2y ago
  That's the problem, though. Some Zefram Cochrane figures out how to work subspace, but all the profit from antigrav sleds will go to whoever won the patents for a pallet mounted on a quadcopter 40 years earlier. (Star Trek avoided this fate by having World War 3 happening in between today and warp drive.)
mschuster91 2y ago
> That is, how is this tech supposed to "mature" in any way to be actually commercially viable or an improvement upon much simpler methods for "moving stuff around"? Doesn't need to be commercially viable, military viable is more than enough. Stick a gun or two on it and you got a version of the recent Ukrainian breakthrough "Fury" UGV [1] that doesn't depend on maneuverable terrain. Or combine it with some wheels to create a two-way vehicle that can drive efficiently on somewhat decent terrain but "air hop" over obstacles. Something like 30 minutes of flight time should already be no issue, that's enough to clear a trench. Warfare was always nasty to begin with, but since the advents of robotic vehicles being used against humans... phew. [1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/09/19/ukraines-gun-armed-ground-robot-just-cleared-a-russian-trench-in-kursk/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/09/19/ukraines-gu...
- hn_throwaway_99 2y ago
  Are you trying to prove my point? The Fury UGV you link to is a gun on wheels, which I see as infinitely more usable and viable than this Palletrone contraption. And in cases where you would want flight capability, why wouldn't you just use a standard aerial drone (obviously used already to great effect in the Ukraine war)?
  - mschuster91 2y ago
    > The Fury UGV you link to is a gun on wheels, which I see as infinitely more usable and viable than this Palletrone contraption. Palletrone is by all means a demonstrator that the idea is possible, an utter MVP. > And in cases where you would want flight capability, why wouldn't you just use a standard aerial drone (obviously used already to great effect in the Ukraine war)? The key thing IMHO is the fusion of aerial and ground movement. A gun on wheels is nice but it's immediately stopped in its tracks by anything from swampy terrain ("rasputiza") over a random trench to hedgehogs [1], not to mention mines. Give it aerial capability, even if it's just enough to hop over a hedgehog or a smaller river, and the ability to defend itself while airborne, and the game becomes much more serious. All you need to be is the first one to actually pull it off and hope it's enough of a surprise effect that the enemy gets hindered long enough that you can make some military gain out of it. Side thought: I wonder how much downforce a drone can actually exert on the ground. Could a heavy enough drone with serious bottom armor be powerful enough to detonate anti-personnel mines without being endangered in the process? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_hedgehog https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_hedgehog
profsummergig 2y ago
“No Wireless. Less Space than a Nomad. Lame.”
- hn_throwaway_99 2y ago
  Do you think this counts as an argument? Because I'm quite sure which device I think is analogous to the Nomad in this situation... If you have any actual thoughts on how a device like this could ever be relevant in the real world, I'm all ears.

amelius 2y ago

No, obviously it goes like: Step 1: Impress investors Step 2: Get $$$ Step 3: ???