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So many cycles of irrational exuberance followed by contraction, followed by... If you're passionate about this work and having trouble getting paid for it, re

So many cycles of irrational exuberance followed by contraction, followed by... If you're passionate about this work and having trouble getting paid for it, remember: You don't need anyone's permission to start solving problems. The last time I looked, we weren't running low on problems that need to be solved. Every contraction I've seen hurts some really good folks, but mostly weeds out the poseurs and wannabe's, the parasites and bureaucrats, while those of us who make, just get back to the business of making.

namaria 2y ago
Yeah it all sounds to me like the 'coders' are getting driven out by senior developers using llms. Trend should continue until big tech stops subsidizing the gpu farms, at which point bootcamp coders may become competitive again.
- glimshe 2y ago
  Boot camp coders are an artifact of the low interest rate environment. Until we see low interest rates again, it's unlikely that there will be a significant market for people with superficial experience in Software Engineering.
  - namaria 2y ago
    Zirp drove demand of low quality code. LLMs drive supply. Bootcampers are being squeezed on both sides, and remote work adds foreign competition on all levels of competency. Zirp also drove supply of capital. Inflated cloud and now gpu farm business. In the absence of gpu farms churning out code, it drove demand for bootcampers. If normal interest rates deflate supply of capital, it will also deflate supply of automatically produced low quality code, so it should be possible that normal interest rates actually accelerate a reverse to mean as in structural demand for low quality code supplied by bootcampers primarily. Inflated pay for low quality code was an artifact of zirp. Supply and demand should settle at a place where bootcampers are not getting rich anymore which sounds more normal.
- orwin 2y ago
  I was successful using llms to greatly help me on writing tests, on the front-end for simple components (they cant understand simple FSM we use on our page), or on the back-end to write what I would call 'gadgets' functions (I know, sec people, it's not what gadget really are, sorry), but as soon as you have a bit of complexity or domain-specific knowledge, they fall on their face. In the end, I might be 10-20% more effective now that I know in which cases llms are helpful, but clearly they won't replace anybody soon, as long as your product is complex enough.
pie420 2y ago
what problems that are solvable with software are out there? Most problems society faces today is too much entertainment, too much technology, not enough peace quiet and solitude, low quality subscription slop. Most problems in society today require less tech, less software, and better quality hardware.
- _mlbt 2y ago
  Make better software that solves problems. It doesn’t have to be new, just cheaper, faster, or a better UX. Offer your services to a local small business that is running on Excel spreadsheets and duct tape. Provide paid support for an open source project that you help maintain and develop. There are tons of opportunities outside Silicon Valley.
  - bradlys 2y ago
    Genuinely, how much would this even pay? If you’re someone who was/is at faang and you’ve got a $2m mortgage - you’re gonna just bootstrap a $500k+/yr salary from the get go? This sentiment feels like something that maybe works in parts of Europe or BFE where a house is still $80k.
thirdacc 2y ago
So, as a soon to be new grad with tens of thousands in debt, limited real-world experience (~1yr), zero sales skills, no health insurance and no savings/safety net, what am I supposed to do? How do I even start in "the business of making" suffocating in debt and getting evicted within a few months? I'd love to go solo. Due to some health problems, early morning shifts (9-5, 8-4) are almost totally unfeasible for me, so even in a good job market my options in traditional work are more limited. But I just don't have the money to bootstrap a business, much less learn sales skills and everything else while my student loan repayment grace period runs out. Because my experience is exclusively limited to software dev, I'm also getting rejected from positions in retail, and if I try to "dumb down" my resume, I'll have nothing but a blank page. Seriously, any advice would be appreciated. I feel stuck.
- al_borland 2y ago
  Entry level retail jobs typically don’t need a lot of stuff on your resume. I remember when I was applying for my first job my dad would tell me to note things like having a reliable car. It’s mostly about if you’re actually going to show up, and if you don’t steal from them, that’s a bonus. But don’t give up on software just because of some bad articles. Trends are trends, you only need to get one job. A lot of companies like to bring in college grads as a way to save money as they push out more seasoned people, while also bringing in new ideas and more modern approaches (for better or worse). Also, think beyond “tech” companies. Nearly every business out there could benefit from a developer, and most don’t have anything at all.
- anymouse123456 2y ago
  I know it's probably not much consolation, but I feel for you. I also had no safety net, no money and developed health issues that ruled out physical labor when I was getting started in life and it was terrifying. It sounds like you're on the right track looking for any job that's available. You really can do this, keep showing up and don't quit.
jauntywundrkind 2y ago
Specifically, that all (most of) the companies doing layoffs (or RTO like Amazon, designed to force their high-agency folks to quit) hired like gangbusters during the pandemic is sick as shit. This is being spun as a great anti-worker effort, but these companies have been mindlessly attached to cycles of hiring-at-all-costs regardless of reason. There's some upside to that, yes, for the workers, but the tale of grimdark no-tech despair we are hearing right now are so so out of line versus reality. It's to all the fatcat's advantage to spin this as dark days for workers, but this massive massive reflexive over hiring was an unprecedented boom, which does not necessarily imply a a bust, especially when these companies so carelessly are willing to shed their known great talent to mobilize against workers.

namaria 2y ago

Yeah it all sounds to me like the 'coders' are getting driven out by senior developers using llms. Trend should continue until big tech stops subsidizing the gpu farms, at which point bootcamp coders may become competitive again.

glimshe 2y ago
Boot camp coders are an artifact of the low interest rate environment. Until we see low interest rates again, it's unlikely that there will be a significant market for people with superficial experience in Software Engineering.
- namaria 2y ago
  Zirp drove demand of low quality code. LLMs drive supply. Bootcampers are being squeezed on both sides, and remote work adds foreign competition on all levels of competency. Zirp also drove supply of capital. Inflated cloud and now gpu farm business. In the absence of gpu farms churning out code, it drove demand for bootcampers. If normal interest rates deflate supply of capital, it will also deflate supply of automatically produced low quality code, so it should be possible that normal interest rates actually accelerate a reverse to mean as in structural demand for low quality code supplied by bootcampers primarily. Inflated pay for low quality code was an artifact of zirp. Supply and demand should settle at a place where bootcampers are not getting rich anymore which sounds more normal.
orwin 2y ago
I was successful using llms to greatly help me on writing tests, on the front-end for simple components (they cant understand simple FSM we use on our page), or on the back-end to write what I would call 'gadgets' functions (I know, sec people, it's not what gadget really are, sorry), but as soon as you have a bit of complexity or domain-specific knowledge, they fall on their face. In the end, I might be 10-20% more effective now that I know in which cases llms are helpful, but clearly they won't replace anybody soon, as long as your product is complex enough.

pie420 2y ago

what problems that are solvable with software are out there? Most problems society faces today is too much entertainment, too much technology, not enough peace quiet and solitude, low quality subscription slop. Most problems in society today require less tech, less software, and better quality hardware.

_mlbt 2y ago
Make better software that solves problems. It doesn’t have to be new, just cheaper, faster, or a better UX. Offer your services to a local small business that is running on Excel spreadsheets and duct tape. Provide paid support for an open source project that you help maintain and develop. There are tons of opportunities outside Silicon Valley.
- bradlys 2y ago
  Genuinely, how much would this even pay? If you’re someone who was/is at faang and you’ve got a $2m mortgage - you’re gonna just bootstrap a $500k+/yr salary from the get go? This sentiment feels like something that maybe works in parts of Europe or BFE where a house is still $80k.

thirdacc 2y ago

So, as a soon to be new grad with tens of thousands in debt, limited real-world experience (~1yr), zero sales skills, no health insurance and no savings/safety net, what am I supposed to do? How do I even start in "the business of making" suffocating in debt and getting evicted within a few months? I'd love to go solo. Due to some health problems, early morning shifts (9-5, 8-4) are almost totally unfeasible for me, so even in a good job market my options in traditional work are more limited. But I just don't have the money to bootstrap a business, much less learn sales skills and everything else while my student loan repayment grace period runs out. Because my experience is exclusively limited to software dev, I'm also getting rejected from positions in retail, and if I try to "dumb down" my resume, I'll have nothing but a blank page. Seriously, any advice would be appreciated. I feel stuck.

al_borland 2y ago
Entry level retail jobs typically don’t need a lot of stuff on your resume. I remember when I was applying for my first job my dad would tell me to note things like having a reliable car. It’s mostly about if you’re actually going to show up, and if you don’t steal from them, that’s a bonus. But don’t give up on software just because of some bad articles. Trends are trends, you only need to get one job. A lot of companies like to bring in college grads as a way to save money as they push out more seasoned people, while also bringing in new ideas and more modern approaches (for better or worse). Also, think beyond “tech” companies. Nearly every business out there could benefit from a developer, and most don’t have anything at all.
anymouse123456 2y ago
I know it's probably not much consolation, but I feel for you. I also had no safety net, no money and developed health issues that ruled out physical labor when I was getting started in life and it was terrifying. It sounds like you're on the right track looking for any job that's available. You really can do this, keep showing up and don't quit.

jauntywundrkind 2y ago

Specifically, that all (most of) the companies doing layoffs (or RTO like Amazon, designed to force their high-agency folks to quit) hired like gangbusters during the pandemic is sick as shit. This is being spun as a great anti-worker effort, but these companies have been mindlessly attached to cycles of hiring-at-all-costs regardless of reason. There's some upside to that, yes, for the workers, but the tale of grimdark no-tech despair we are hearing right now are so so out of line versus reality. It's to all the fatcat's advantage to spin this as dark days for workers, but this massive massive reflexive over hiring was an unprecedented boom, which does not necessarily imply a a bust, especially when these companies so carelessly are willing to shed their known great talent to mobilize against workers.