2 ms·

Wonder how long it takes the tech job market to react/recover.

nemo44x 2y ago
I have no idea but to be sure it has been pretty bad since autumn of 2001 or thereabouts. That was when it began to tighten and most people began to feel it about midway through 2022 and certainly by late 2022. Most people I know aren't aggressively hiring or plan to and I think most are still bracing for some rough economic times ahead. Eventually though it will recover. Will it be now or a year or 4, who knows.
silisili 2y ago
Tech got hit with a one two punch of high interest rates and section 174 tax changes. This is a needed(and IMO good) rate cut, but I feel it'll be a while before we ever get back to the great times.
mamonster 2y ago
Why would it? Bank trading never recovered to the "glory days" of the 00s. Don't work in tech, but I definitely don't see the junior market recovering to what it was pre-2020 and for mature devs its probably "high pay for $BIGCORP but you're in the office" or "WFH for a startup for bad cash pay and equity roulette" for the foreseeable future.
- chaosist 2y ago
  I don't work in tech either and completely agree. These processes aren't cyclical, they are non-ergodic, one off regimes that once we visit a specific regime, we will not return to that regime. As someone who has done quite a bit of t-bill and chill investing this regime, I don't see how we can afford to lower interest rates anywhere near like we did the last decade. I am good with 50 bps but it can only go so low this time to keep US government debt attractive. Then I think of how I could have been a really shitty front end React developer circa 2019. There is no way I could ever get a job doing that now when I see what I can do with Cursor/Sonnet as the same shitty React dev.
la64710 2y ago
Do we have full understanding on how this impacted the tech jobs? There may be other forces at play ie the availability of global workforce to compete with domestic workers of USA through remote work. Previously it was about outsourcing but now any 2 bit startup can easily have a bunch of devs sitting overseas and have a 3P company as their EOR. All the benefits of having an office overseas without any of the associated headaches. And to top it off over 20/25 years of continuous training and empowerment of global workforce have made them not only competitive but relatively superior and younger. So I am not too hopeful that this interest rate cut will really help the domestic US tech job market. I earnestly hope I am wrong.

I have no idea but to be sure it has been pretty bad since autumn of 2001 or thereabouts. That was when it began to tighten and most people began to feel it about midway through 2022 and certainly by late 2022. Most people I know aren't aggressively hiring or plan to and I think most are still bracing for some rough economic times ahead. Eventually though it will recover. Will it be now or a year or 4, who knows.

silisili 2y ago

Tech got hit with a one two punch of high interest rates and section 174 tax changes. This is a needed(and IMO good) rate cut, but I feel it'll be a while before we ever get back to the great times.

mamonster 2y ago

Why would it? Bank trading never recovered to the "glory days" of the 00s. Don't work in tech, but I definitely don't see the junior market recovering to what it was pre-2020 and for mature devs its probably "high pay for $BIGCORP but you're in the office" or "WFH for a startup for bad cash pay and equity roulette" for the foreseeable future.

chaosist 2y ago
I don't work in tech either and completely agree. These processes aren't cyclical, they are non-ergodic, one off regimes that once we visit a specific regime, we will not return to that regime. As someone who has done quite a bit of t-bill and chill investing this regime, I don't see how we can afford to lower interest rates anywhere near like we did the last decade. I am good with 50 bps but it can only go so low this time to keep US government debt attractive. Then I think of how I could have been a really shitty front end React developer circa 2019. There is no way I could ever get a job doing that now when I see what I can do with Cursor/Sonnet as the same shitty React dev.

la64710 2y ago

Do we have full understanding on how this impacted the tech jobs? There may be other forces at play ie the availability of global workforce to compete with domestic workers of USA through remote work. Previously it was about outsourcing but now any 2 bit startup can easily have a bunch of devs sitting overseas and have a 3P company as their EOR. All the benefits of having an office overseas without any of the associated headaches. And to top it off over 20/25 years of continuous training and empowerment of global workforce have made them not only competitive but relatively superior and younger. So I am not too hopeful that this interest rate cut will really help the domestic US tech job market. I earnestly hope I am wrong.