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"The deterioration prediction model was a time-aware multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) model" https://doi.org/10.1503/cmaj.240132 https://doi.org/
by qsort 2y ago
"The deterioration prediction model was a time-aware multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) model"
https://doi.org/10.1503/cmaj.240132 https://doi.org/10.1503/cmaj.240132
- tantalor 2y agoThanks for posting this! Much better source than CBC article. I found this interesting: > 1 truly alerted patient for every 2 falsely alerted patients was deemed an acceptable number of false alarms
- shadowgovt 2y agoInteresting, and I think it makes sense. In an ideal world, the nurse to patient ratio would be high enough that patients could be seen on regular rotation frequently. I've never been in a hospital where this was the case. So a system that can correctly prioritize resources for critical cases even if it's pulling resources away from non-critical cases will probably result in a net improved outcome.
- rscho 2y agoWith such a false positive rate, I expect the staff on site to find ways to negate the effect pretty quickly.
- Tostino 2y agoI don't know...If every 3rd time I was alerted it was some relatively serious issue, vs how often there is a serious issue when just doing rounds that you stumble upon, I'd think that would be a pretty good alert rate compared to the norm. But then again, I'm not in healthcare.
- rscho 2y agoEssentially, it depends on workplace integration, i.e. how much effort it takes to discover the alert trigger. From personal experience, I'd say the upper limit of inconvenience is 'click the alert' on mobile, and 'move mouse on alert label to see tooltip' on desktop. Anything more will be quickly discarded, especially if it involves a popup or opens a new window.
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- firejake308 2y agoWhile alarm fatigue is a real thing, the finding from this study is that they didn't, which is what matters.
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- inglor_cz 2y ago2 in 3 isn't such a terrible false positive rate. If your home alarm caught one real burglar per each three occassions it triggered, I bet you wouldn't develop alarm fatigue. I certainly wouldn't.
- rscho 2y agoDo you get burglars multiple times a day? I bet not...
- jampekka 2y agoGOFAI from 1991! Wasn't AI back then though. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multivariate_adaptive_regression_spline https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multivariate_adaptive_regres...
- lukeinator42 2y agoI'm also shocked at how readable this wikipedia article is relative to most articles about statistical methods.
- IshKebab 2y agoWow you're right. I mean it's all maths articles on Wikipedia, not just statistics. I think there are two causes of Wikipedia maths articles' general awfulness: 1. They're probably written by people that just learnt about them and want to show off their superior knowledge rather than explain the concept. 2. The people writing them think it's supposed to be a precise mathematical definition of the concept, rather than an easy to understand introduction. It's like they're writing a formal model instead of a tutorial. Often the Mathworld articles are a lot better than Wikipedia, when they exist at least.
- 0cf8612b2e1e 2y agoFun bit of trivia (though depressing) from the wiki The term "MARS" is trademarked and licensed to Salford Systems. In order to avoid trademark infringements, many open-source implementations of MARS are called "Earth".
- blitzar 2y agoMultivariate adaptive regression spline saw the hype and pivoted to AI
- pj808 2y agoMARS is one of the smartest methods: intuitive, hard to break, easy to quantify. Friedman was a savant.
- meindnoch 2y agoLol. "AI" strikes again.