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The only thing that could cause an AI winter at this point is a thermonuclear war. Just the release of o1 hasn't been fully appreciated yet. And in the next fe
by atleastoptimal 2y ago
The only thing that could cause an AI winter at this point is a thermonuclear war.
Just the release of o1 hasn't been fully appreciated yet. And in the next few months and year ahead we are getting a deluge of new SOTA models that will completely change the assumptions of what AI can do.
A lot of the AI startups are just cash-grab wrappers with little understanding of fundamentals under the hood. Their failure isn't reflective of the massive gains in AI and track to AGI in the next few years.
- chaosist 2y agoCommon programming problems will be solved because they can be approached in a probabilistic fashion by the very nature that they are common problems. I would expect harder problems to be much harder. I am a non-software engineer, I work for a small company that we could do whatever we want with language models in terms of the business. The issue though is all of our business problems are stacks of one off problems that the current models offer us basically no help on. Even if the models could help us we would basically have to rebuild the business from the ground up around the models to really benefit much. Like the dotcom bubble, there is a large amount of time it will take for culture , business and society to leverage the technology. Between then and now I suspect sits an absolutely brutal AI winter that is brought on by nothing more than a good old recession.