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I wish the best for the geothermal industry, but the phrase “could outperform” is doing a lot of heavy lifting. Geothermal thermal has essentially zero growth,

I wish the best for the geothermal industry, but the phrase “could outperform” is doing a lot of heavy lifting. Geothermal thermal has essentially zero growth, in the US, in the last 20 years. And there is basically no growth planned in the near future, or at least nothing on the EIA’s or FERC’s upcoming generation list. I’m skeptical that geothermal will ever make a significant impact in the US. Though it might make a difference in much farther north places, where solar struggles. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/?tbl=T01.02#/?f=M&start=199209&end=202405&charted=1-2-3-4-6-13-9 https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/?tbl=T01.02#/?f...

cinntaile 2y ago
Nuclear also has essentially zero growth, whichever turtle is fastest still wins.
- tonyarkles 2y ago
  I mean… somewhat true in the west but https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China
  - cinntaile 2y ago
    He specifically mentioned the US so that is what I responded to.
  - pydry 2y ago
    From 1% to 5% of Chinese power is hardly a standout success either.
    - lrkrsBlurkn 2y ago
      [dead]
theluketaylor 2y ago
Yeah, I'm not sure large scale geothermal electrical production will ever be a thing outside some specialized locations like Iceland. I do think geothermal has a part to play, specifically for heating and cooling of neighbourhoods and multifamily developments. The construction has to move a ton of dirt anyway, so might as well install some ground loops while you're at it. If you're forced to drill due to site conditions, the load is lower than pure electricity generation meaning the wells are not that deep. For private homes it's far too expensive to be much more than a curiosity, but amortized across a whole new neighbourhood or collection of apartment buildings it's very affordable. Especially in northern climates accessing the consistent ground heat source/sink that allows you to run heat pumps at max efficiency all year is a huge win and is a huge amount of electricity you never need to generate in the first place.
- Reason077 2y ago
  > "I'm not sure large scale geothermal electrical production will ever be a thing outside some specialized locations like Iceland." You may be underestimating the extent of geothermal power production that already exists around the world. For example, California's Geysers[1] and Salton Sea[2] geothermal complexes are some of the largest in the world, generating more electricity than all of Iceland's geothermal power plants combined. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geysers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geysers [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperial_Valley_Geothermal_Project https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperial_Valley_Geothermal_Pro...
- jandrewrogers 2y ago
  > outside some specialized locations like Iceland I think you underestimate the scale of geothermal available. The US is the largest geothermal power producer in the world though no one thinks of the US as that. Not coincidentally, it also sits on top of the largest high-quality geothermal basin in the world, essentially the entire Mountain West. The US barely taps these resources at all despite leading the world. Ironically, much of the pushback on developing these geothermal resources in the US comes from environmental activists.
- jbm 2y ago
  While I agree with you generally, the price I was given was $50k for geothermal heat pump all in. Considering my house has risen in value by 200k over the past 3 years and I intend on it being a permanent family home, it's really not out of the question, especially considering the potential increase in extreme heat events and the impacts on energy. I understand people see this as an underperforming investment but I instead see it as de-risking.
Veedrac 2y ago
The problem is dominantly that with traditional techniques the US doesn't have useful geothermal energy resources, so not having geothermal energy historically doesn't mean that newer approaches that aim to work in far more areas will also fail to scale. Skepticism is reasonable around any new technology, but the arguments for geothermal are convincing enough that it seems easily worth the attempt.
rabf 2y ago
"Our gyrotron-powered drilling platform vaporizes boreholes through rock and provides access to deep geothermal heat without complex downhole equipment. Based on breakthrough fusion research and well-established drilling practices, we are developing a radical new approach to ultra-deep drilling." This company looks promising in the geothermal space. They are looking to be able to create 10km boreholes in 100 days. This would make geothermal viable anywhere in the world. Bonus points if you create the borehole next to an existing coal plant to use the existing turbine and infrastructure. https://www.quaise.energy/ https://www.quaise.energy/
- rpmisms 2y ago
  Looks amazing as a disruptor in the space, but I also want to say that Gyrotron is an excellent name for a device. Very industrial.
  - iknowstuff 2y ago
    like a futurama striptease robot
  - euroderf 2y ago
    Expo '67 Gyrotron: https://en.worldfairs.info/expopavillondetails.php?expo_id=17&pavillon_id=867 https://en.worldfairs.info/expopavillondetails.php?expo_id=1...
- pb1729 2y ago
  Bhauth wrote an analysis of this idea, and tldr is that trying to get an energy payback on literally vaporizing such a long cylinder of rock is brutally difficult, probably enough to make the economics of the plan unworkable. https://www.bhauth.com/blog/flawed%20ideas/microwave%20drilling.html https://www.bhauth.com/blog/flawed%20ideas/microwave%20drill...
  - dmurray 2y ago
    It makes it all sound like a problem of engineering, not of physics. It's really hard to vapourize all that rock and suck it out to the surface with a vacuum. But it's really hard in the sense that the vaporised rock might recondense and stick to the sides of the hole, not in the sense that vaporising the rock costs more energy than you get out of the hole in its 30-year lifetime.
natenatenate3 2y ago
Look up Fervo Energy, I think you will be surprised how quickly their method will grow and expand as they gain more experience with their current projects.
- xnx 2y ago
  Came here to say this. Google has a test project with them: https://blog.google/outreach-initiatives/sustainability/google-fervo-geothermal-energy-partnership/ https://blog.google/outreach-initiatives/sustainability/goog...

cinntaile 2y ago

Nuclear also has essentially zero growth, whichever turtle is fastest still wins.

tonyarkles 2y ago
I mean… somewhat true in the west but https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China
- cinntaile 2y ago
  He specifically mentioned the US so that is what I responded to.
- pydry 2y ago
  From 1% to 5% of Chinese power is hardly a standout success either.
  - lrkrsBlurkn 2y ago
    [dead]

theluketaylor 2y ago

Yeah, I'm not sure large scale geothermal electrical production will ever be a thing outside some specialized locations like Iceland. I do think geothermal has a part to play, specifically for heating and cooling of neighbourhoods and multifamily developments. The construction has to move a ton of dirt anyway, so might as well install some ground loops while you're at it. If you're forced to drill due to site conditions, the load is lower than pure electricity generation meaning the wells are not that deep. For private homes it's far too expensive to be much more than a curiosity, but amortized across a whole new neighbourhood or collection of apartment buildings it's very affordable. Especially in northern climates accessing the consistent ground heat source/sink that allows you to run heat pumps at max efficiency all year is a huge win and is a huge amount of electricity you never need to generate in the first place.

Reason077 2y ago
> "I'm not sure large scale geothermal electrical production will ever be a thing outside some specialized locations like Iceland." You may be underestimating the extent of geothermal power production that already exists around the world. For example, California's Geysers[1] and Salton Sea[2] geothermal complexes are some of the largest in the world, generating more electricity than all of Iceland's geothermal power plants combined. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geysers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geysers [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperial_Valley_Geothermal_Project https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperial_Valley_Geothermal_Pro...
jandrewrogers 2y ago
> outside some specialized locations like Iceland I think you underestimate the scale of geothermal available. The US is the largest geothermal power producer in the world though no one thinks of the US as that. Not coincidentally, it also sits on top of the largest high-quality geothermal basin in the world, essentially the entire Mountain West. The US barely taps these resources at all despite leading the world. Ironically, much of the pushback on developing these geothermal resources in the US comes from environmental activists.
jbm 2y ago
While I agree with you generally, the price I was given was $50k for geothermal heat pump all in. Considering my house has risen in value by 200k over the past 3 years and I intend on it being a permanent family home, it's really not out of the question, especially considering the potential increase in extreme heat events and the impacts on energy. I understand people see this as an underperforming investment but I instead see it as de-risking.

Veedrac 2y ago

The problem is dominantly that with traditional techniques the US doesn't have useful geothermal energy resources, so not having geothermal energy historically doesn't mean that newer approaches that aim to work in far more areas will also fail to scale. Skepticism is reasonable around any new technology, but the arguments for geothermal are convincing enough that it seems easily worth the attempt.

rabf 2y ago

"Our gyrotron-powered drilling platform vaporizes boreholes through rock and provides access to deep geothermal heat without complex downhole equipment. Based on breakthrough fusion research and well-established drilling practices, we are developing a radical new approach to ultra-deep drilling." This company looks promising in the geothermal space. They are looking to be able to create 10km boreholes in 100 days. This would make geothermal viable anywhere in the world. Bonus points if you create the borehole next to an existing coal plant to use the existing turbine and infrastructure. https://www.quaise.energy/ https://www.quaise.energy/

rpmisms 2y ago
Looks amazing as a disruptor in the space, but I also want to say that Gyrotron is an excellent name for a device. Very industrial.
- iknowstuff 2y ago
  like a futurama striptease robot
- euroderf 2y ago
  Expo '67 Gyrotron: https://en.worldfairs.info/expopavillondetails.php?expo_id=17&pavillon_id=867 https://en.worldfairs.info/expopavillondetails.php?expo_id=1...
pb1729 2y ago
Bhauth wrote an analysis of this idea, and tldr is that trying to get an energy payback on literally vaporizing such a long cylinder of rock is brutally difficult, probably enough to make the economics of the plan unworkable. https://www.bhauth.com/blog/flawed%20ideas/microwave%20drilling.html https://www.bhauth.com/blog/flawed%20ideas/microwave%20drill...
- dmurray 2y ago
  It makes it all sound like a problem of engineering, not of physics. It's really hard to vapourize all that rock and suck it out to the surface with a vacuum. But it's really hard in the sense that the vaporised rock might recondense and stick to the sides of the hole, not in the sense that vaporising the rock costs more energy than you get out of the hole in its 30-year lifetime.

natenatenate3 2y ago

Look up Fervo Energy, I think you will be surprised how quickly their method will grow and expand as they gain more experience with their current projects.

xnx 2y ago
Came here to say this. Google has a test project with them: https://blog.google/outreach-initiatives/sustainability/google-fervo-geothermal-energy-partnership/ https://blog.google/outreach-initiatives/sustainability/goog...