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"AI reminds me of the internet in 1999." -- Peter Thiel[1] [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYRunzR9fbk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYRunzR9fbk

by tazu 2y ago

blurty 2y ago
[dead]
yumraj 2y ago
Wasn’t that followed by a dot-com bubble burst, and then things actually started taking shape. So are we expecting a ai bubble burst as well?
ramesh31 2y ago
>AI reminds me of the internet in 1999." -- Peter Thiel[1] It just feels like we're still in the pre-Navigator days though, circa '94. All of this complex orchestration work needs to be baked into a single model. I don't want to learn how to implement a multimodal agent system. I want to tell something what to do and have it do it for me perfectly with no more interaction than a simple prompt. Fortunately this is just a software engineering problem now, not a CS one.
- kylecazar 2y ago
  I agree completely. The companies I'm currently most excited about are all working on making some sort of E2E platform, weaving together all of the component pieces into a cohesive whole.
- tmpz22 2y ago
  The UI is also trash for many workflows. Copy paste? Little comment based autocomplete? We can't do better then that at all?
  - fragmede 2y ago
    Aider and Openinterpreter have a better UX than using ChatGPT via a website.
threeseed 2y ago
As someone who remembers that time very well I disagree. Smartphones followed a similar path to the internet i.e. completely new paradigm, that had immediate benefit but needed technology to improve to become widely adopted. But where the roadmaps to improve these technologies were clear and well defined. AI is far more akin to nuclear fusion where each step along the way will require major scientific breakthroughs. And where it's not clear how to get this grand AGI end-game. Especially as OpenAI has said advancements depend on compute capacity that we simply don't have. [1] https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/ https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/
- bb88 2y ago
  I think it's more like nuclear fission, frankly. I don't think the major breakthroughs will be as difficult to achieve, but we'll have a trail of nasty side effects and bad actors that will be left in its wake. In 2020 I never thought an AI would code for me. And now it turns out, it's pretty good. But AI Slop is pretty much a toxic mess.
- CSMastermind 2y ago
  Even with their current capabilities, these AI systems will dramatically improve productivity. We could have a 20-year AI 'winter' with no new advancements, and they'd still be a big deal. The thing is that it will take years to integrate them into existing domains and workflows. Honestly I think the most relevant comparison is the rise of desktop computers themselves. Suddenly paper-based processes had to become electronic and in some cases that took 40 years.
  - lm28469 2y ago
    > Even with their current capabilities, these AI systems will dramatically improve productivity It's been 24 months, where is it? And even what you can measure doesn't match the valuation of openai at all
    - lifty 2y ago
      You won’t necessarily notice it as much in end user application. But I already see good adoption for knowledge workers and the next step is in process automation through agentic workflows. Most likely the result will be in the form of efficiency gains, improved profits and worse customer service.
xyst 2y ago
[flagged]

"AI reminds me of the internet in 1999." -- Peter Thiel[1] [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYRunzR9fbk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYRunzR9fbk

by tazu 2y ago

"AI reminds me of the internet in 1999." -- Peter Thiel[1] [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYRunzR9fbk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYRunzR9fbk

blurty 2y ago

[dead]

yumraj 2y ago

Wasn’t that followed by a dot-com bubble burst, and then things actually started taking shape. So are we expecting a ai bubble burst as well?

ramesh31 2y ago

>AI reminds me of the internet in 1999." -- Peter Thiel[1] It just feels like we're still in the pre-Navigator days though, circa '94. All of this complex orchestration work needs to be baked into a single model. I don't want to learn how to implement a multimodal agent system. I want to tell something what to do and have it do it for me perfectly with no more interaction than a simple prompt. Fortunately this is just a software engineering problem now, not a CS one.

kylecazar 2y ago
I agree completely. The companies I'm currently most excited about are all working on making some sort of E2E platform, weaving together all of the component pieces into a cohesive whole.
tmpz22 2y ago
The UI is also trash for many workflows. Copy paste? Little comment based autocomplete? We can't do better then that at all?
- fragmede 2y ago
  Aider and Openinterpreter have a better UX than using ChatGPT via a website.

threeseed 2y ago

As someone who remembers that time very well I disagree. Smartphones followed a similar path to the internet i.e. completely new paradigm, that had immediate benefit but needed technology to improve to become widely adopted. But where the roadmaps to improve these technologies were clear and well defined. AI is far more akin to nuclear fusion where each step along the way will require major scientific breakthroughs. And where it's not clear how to get this grand AGI end-game. Especially as OpenAI has said advancements depend on compute capacity that we simply don't have. [1] https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/ https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/

bb88 2y ago
I think it's more like nuclear fission, frankly. I don't think the major breakthroughs will be as difficult to achieve, but we'll have a trail of nasty side effects and bad actors that will be left in its wake. In 2020 I never thought an AI would code for me. And now it turns out, it's pretty good. But AI Slop is pretty much a toxic mess.
CSMastermind 2y ago
Even with their current capabilities, these AI systems will dramatically improve productivity. We could have a 20-year AI 'winter' with no new advancements, and they'd still be a big deal. The thing is that it will take years to integrate them into existing domains and workflows. Honestly I think the most relevant comparison is the rise of desktop computers themselves. Suddenly paper-based processes had to become electronic and in some cases that took 40 years.
- lm28469 2y ago
  > Even with their current capabilities, these AI systems will dramatically improve productivity It's been 24 months, where is it? And even what you can measure doesn't match the valuation of openai at all
  - lifty 2y ago
    You won’t necessarily notice it as much in end user application. But I already see good adoption for knowledge workers and the next step is in process automation through agentic workflows. Most likely the result will be in the form of efficiency gains, improved profits and worse customer service.

xyst 2y ago

[flagged]