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Even without AI, it's gotten ~10,000 times easier to write software than in the 1950s (eg. imagine trying to write PyTorch code by hand in IBM 650 assembly), bu

Even without AI, it's gotten ~10,000 times easier to write software than in the 1950s (eg. imagine trying to write PyTorch code by hand in IBM 650 assembly), but the demand for software engineering has only increased, because demand increases even faster than supply does. Jevons paradox: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

aantix 2y ago
The number of tech job postings has tanked - which loosely correlates with the rise of AI. https://x.com/catalinmpit/status/1831768926746734984 https://x.com/catalinmpit/status/1831768926746734984
- apsec112 2y ago
  GPT-4 came out in March 2023, after most of this drop was already finished.
- disgruntledphd2 2y ago
  And also with a large increase in interest rates.
- macinjosh 2y ago
  The tanking is more closely aligned with new tax rules that went to effect that make it much harder to claim dev time as an expense.
- Meekro 2y ago
  I'm skeptical because "we fired half our programmers and our new AI does their jobs as well as they did" is a story that would tear through the Silicon Valley rumor mill. To my knowledge, this has not happened (yet).
- guluarte 2y ago
  this drop is more related to the FED increasing the interest rates
- bognition 2y ago
  The local decline in open software engineering positions has _nothing_ to do with AI. The best orgs are using AI to assist developers in building out new systems and write tests. Show me someone who is doing anything bigger than that, please I'd love to be proven wrong. The big decline is driven by a few big factors. Two of which are 1- the overhiring that happened in 2021. This was followed by the increase of interest rates which dramatically constrained the money supply. Investors stopped preferring growth over profits. This shift in investor preferences is reflected in engineering orgs tightening their budgets as they are no longer rewarded for unbridled growth.
  - nickfromseattle 2y ago
    Plus the tax code requiring amortization of developer salaries over 5 years instead of the year the salary expense is incurred.
randomdata 2y ago
> it's gotten ~10,000 times easier to write software than in the 1950s It seems many of the popular tools want to make writing software harder than in the 2010s, though. Perhaps their stewards believe that if they keep making things more and more unnecessarily complicated, LLMs won't be able to keep up?
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]

aantix 2y ago

The number of tech job postings has tanked - which loosely correlates with the rise of AI. https://x.com/catalinmpit/status/1831768926746734984 https://x.com/catalinmpit/status/1831768926746734984

apsec112 2y ago
GPT-4 came out in March 2023, after most of this drop was already finished.
disgruntledphd2 2y ago
And also with a large increase in interest rates.
macinjosh 2y ago
The tanking is more closely aligned with new tax rules that went to effect that make it much harder to claim dev time as an expense.
Meekro 2y ago
I'm skeptical because "we fired half our programmers and our new AI does their jobs as well as they did" is a story that would tear through the Silicon Valley rumor mill. To my knowledge, this has not happened (yet).
guluarte 2y ago
this drop is more related to the FED increasing the interest rates
bognition 2y ago
The local decline in open software engineering positions has _nothing_ to do with AI. The best orgs are using AI to assist developers in building out new systems and write tests. Show me someone who is doing anything bigger than that, please I'd love to be proven wrong. The big decline is driven by a few big factors. Two of which are 1- the overhiring that happened in 2021. This was followed by the increase of interest rates which dramatically constrained the money supply. Investors stopped preferring growth over profits. This shift in investor preferences is reflected in engineering orgs tightening their budgets as they are no longer rewarded for unbridled growth.
- nickfromseattle 2y ago
  Plus the tax code requiring amortization of developer salaries over 5 years instead of the year the salary expense is incurred.

randomdata 2y ago

> it's gotten ~10,000 times easier to write software than in the 1950s It seems many of the popular tools want to make writing software harder than in the 2010s, though. Perhaps their stewards believe that if they keep making things more and more unnecessarily complicated, LLMs won't be able to keep up?

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]