9 ms·

Human drivers are to blame for most serious Waymo collisions

42 points by 2bluesc 2y ago

CatDivers 2y ago
Just got a scooter in SF, friend told me to ride alongside Waymo where possible, as they're less likely to crash into you.
yieldcrv 2y ago
Just got my inaugural Waymo rides and access. Comparing to all drivers is one thing, but comparing to ride shares is another and yeah, Uber and Lyft are done. The market is definitely going to choose Waymo. The new reservations of a driverless car arent going to be big enough to trump the distrust and negative experience of other humans, given the option. The pricing is comparable, and the rest of the experience is better. The driverless part also seems trained on the driving customs of the area, here in LA it was assertive when it needed to be and overall impressive. LA has some sketchy left turn customs and the car did it fine.
- TulliusCicero 2y ago
  I'd definitely feel better in a self-driving car where I wouldn't feel any awkwardness about changing the music or just watching a loud video on my phone. As I understand it, a lot of women in the areas where Waymo's currently deployed feel safer without having a driver as well.
  - meragrin_ 2y ago
    > a lot of women in the areas where Waymo's currently deployed feel safer without having a driver as well. Until criminals figure out they're sitting ducks.
    - htrp 2y ago
      how would they be a sitting duck in a driverless car?
      - yieldcrv 2y ago
        I guess they’re thinking to disrupt the car’s movement and predictability in stopping, in comparison to an erratic driver, who they also wont have to deal with when breaking into the car
        yieldcrv 2y ago
        I think a deterrent to that are all the cameras on the car
    - TulliusCicero 2y ago
      This reminds me of the hysteria over the idea that people will randomly start fucking with road signs to put self-driving cars and their occupants in danger, and that this would be widespread and something that will impede SDC adoption.
- eastbound 2y ago
  In the middle east we often give way to other people by using the hands to show a “Here, please pass” gesture. It greatly accelerates the traffic because then pedestrians or cars don’t doubt your intention and can engage on the street. Do you do the same in LA for left turns, and did Waymo find a replacing clue?
  - kevinventullo 2y ago
    Not OP, but I would guess he is talking about completing an unprotected left by pulling out into the intersection, waiting for the opposite traffic’s light to turn red and for those cars to stop, then completing the left as the cross-traffic’s light turns green. It’s kind of sketchy and probably legally dubious, but it’s the only way to turn left on busy intersections without a protected left. I’d feared that a Waymo would get stuck in such situations indefinitely, but they seem to be perfectly comfortable performing these left turns as a human would.
    - yieldcrv 2y ago
      They should update the driving test to say left on red is okay for the first 2 and a half vehicles then it wont be legally dubious
- dyauspitr 2y ago
  It’s bound to keep getting cheaper over time. It’s literally free, completely scalable “labor”.
- Freedom2 2y ago
  > The market is definitely going to choose Waymo. Given the tendency for premature HN opinions that are absolute to often swing the other way in practice, I'll be curious to see how this actually goes.
  - yieldcrv 2y ago
    Can’t immortalize my username without being bold They’re doing all the right things, selective city rollout, FOMO inducing waitlist once there, offering great service once in
- Sad90sNerd 2y ago
  Waymo is a money hole it has never got close to making a profit. Think of all that equipment attached to a luxury SUV and the upkeep. The purpose of Waymo is research - you just get the privilege of paying to be a guinea pig. There is no market for Waymo - just Google who dumps money on it. Another important thing to think about is that Uber and Lyft are operated by people. Often these working people need the meager salary to live - wouldn't you rather support your local economy instead of being a research subject?
  - yieldcrv 2y ago
    No. Next question. Any business that relies on charity over market validation is done. Waymos don't even ask for tips, the debate about it has been completely leapfrogged. I spent the last 10 years riding ubers, the next 10 in waymos. Very easy call.
    - Sad90sNerd 2y ago
      How is Google sponsoring a company hemorrhaging money not charity as well?
      - yieldcrv 2y ago
        I only care about the consumer experience Uber and Lyft subsidized their service with VC capital for a long time as well
Vecr 2y ago
AI systems should be able to do better. I don't think saying "yeah, we're done here" is acceptable. The next step is to start building models of human minds (as is modeling human behavior, not literal mind uploads), as well as models of every self driving car model, and do full on global (-ish, limited to the general area) optimization of outcomes according to a publicly available and audited decision theory and utility function. It's the only way to enable superhuman avoidance actions without making things worse by confusing others. This is why the models of humans and other robotic cars are needed.
- nyrulez 2y ago
  I missed the "yeah, we're done here" part. Don't think Waymo is going to pause their safety research program now.
  - Vecr 2y ago
    It's in general sentiment I've seen in some places, not a literal quote. The article exhibits it somewhat, not explicitly explaining how the human average is dragged down by drivers that are partially incapacitated.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- GoatOfAplomb 2y ago
  FWIW these companies already invest pretty heavily in predicting the behavior of other agents (cars, pedestrians, squirrels...) in the vicinity. But clearly it is not publicly available or audited.
- jeffbee 2y ago
  Isn't predicting the future actions of agents in the scene half of what Waymo already does?
modeless 2y ago
If only they would deploy faster. I really doubt their crash rate would spike up to human levels if they expanded 2x or 10x faster. Living in Silicon Valley I've been passing those cars for a decade without the opportunity to ride. Now they even have regulatory approval for this area, but still no service and no timeline for service.
- TulliusCicero 2y ago
  > I really doubt their crash rate would spike up to human levels if they expanded 2x or 10x faster. If you look at some of the skepticism around self-driving cars in the US, it makes sense that they're going slow and careful. Even if a spike in accidents was still lower than the equivalent for humans, that would bring a lot of political scrutiny to Waymo that would then slow their deployment.
  - andrewmutz 2y ago
    It’s tragic that many lives will be lost due to the fear-driven slow rollout. It reminds me of the kids that die due to their parents fear of vaccines
    - JoshTriplett 2y ago
      It would be even more tragic if they went too quickly, there was some high-profile incident, and the backlash slowed rollout even more, resulting in even more lives lost in the long run.
      - shadowgovt 2y ago
        Worth remembering that Uber had one fatality and it resulted in the dissolution of the entire project. The stakes are very high and public tolerance for error is basically zero.
        jefftk 2y ago
        Uber had one fatality, yes, but the investigation into that fatality showed fundamental issues with their approach: https://www.jefftk.com/p/uber-self-driving-crash https://www.jefftk.com/p/uber-self-driving-crash If instead it had turned out that their system was well built but ran into a freak edge case, I doubt they would have shut down.
jeffbee 2y ago
Humans are bad at driving and in the last 5 years the behavior of the most extreme drivers way out on the tail of the bad driver bell curve has become much worse. Waymo is just acting as a recording device to quantify how bad these bozos are.
- shadowgovt 2y ago
  One of the more fascinating consequences of the waymo project starting (back when it was still inside Google, not a bet) was the discovery from the telemetry Waymo collected that actual collisions are underreported by a factor of probably three. This is because nhtsa's data comes from accident reports and insurance claims, and people get into fender benders everyday that never get reported because nobody wants their rates to go up.
piombisallow 2y ago
Can't wait for the moment when the majority of cars on the road will be self-driving. I assume that safety will only increase as the proportion rises. The sheer amount of victims from driving is insane - we'll look back on it as we now look to infectious diseases of the past.
- dyauspitr 2y ago
  I’m looking forward to it but it’s sad in a way too. The self driving cars are going to be heavily regulated. In a really dystopian setup, you would be restricted from leaving your zone.
  - jfoster 2y ago
    Two things: 1. If you judge new technology by the absolute worst way that it can be used, you are going to spend your life worrying about a million things that will never happen. Focus on stuff that's happening instead of hypotheticals. 2. In a really dystopian setup, you can be restricted from leaving "your zone" regardless of autonomous vehicles. There's plenty of existing technology that can help with that. (number plates, cellular networks, facial recognition, etc.)
    - kevinventullo 2y ago
      Not only is #2 possible today, it is in fact a lived reality for people in some parts of the world.
    - badsectoracula 2y ago
      > Focus on stuff that's happening instead of hypotheticals. How do you prevent "hypotheticals" from becoming "stuff that's happening" if you never pay any attention to them in the first place and let them happen?
      - sdrinf 2y ago
        Because hypotheticals have a process of moving into "stuff that's happening", on the timescale of years, decades. Once it's starts happening, speak; if speaking doesn't work, fight; if fighting doesn't work, move. This works.
lordofmoria 2y ago
I’d like to see a comparison of Waymo to the top 10% of drivers, rather than average. I’d consider my dad a good driver - he’s driven many hundreds of thousands of miles without a crash in probably 30 years. Does such data exist?
- karlgkk 2y ago
  I’d support such a comparison if 100% of drivers were the top 10% of drivers
- roenxi 2y ago
  Why? We have a major problem right now; cars are deathtraps and roads are murder weapons. We haven't been able to do anything about that historically without taking unacceptable economic damage, but we're right on the cusp of massive improvements to the situation. How the top 10% of drivers are going in amongst all that isn't really a factor as far as I can see. They'll probably end up banned from taking the wheel at some point for consistencies sake but they are ultimately not really a factor. Besides, automated cars will overtake (hehe) their skills at some point whether we track it specifically or not; in the long term humans can't compete against an engineered process.
  - lordofmoria 2y ago
    Because if Waymo is clearly a better driver than average, but not better than me, it might affect my decision to use one.
    - htrp 2y ago
      lake wobegon effect?
- fragmede 2y ago
  The raw data is available for download and you can compare not getting into any accidents to their number of accidents per however many hundreds of thousands of miles. https://waymo.com/safety/impact/#downloads https://waymo.com/safety/impact/#downloads There isn't much to the data available for download, but it looks like 0.00001207261588 accidents per mile, or ~1.2 accidents per 100,000 miles (268/22199000). Figuring your father drives 15k miles per year, times 30 years and rounding up to 500k miles, Waymo has a recorded 6 accidents to your father's 0. Not sure why that's an interesting comparison, however. Assuming your dad is good at not driving when he shouldn't (tired/drunk/angry), he's not on the road when it's worrisome. I don't worry about getting into accidents with drivers who aren't on the road, I worry about the tired/drunk/angry drivers I do have to share the road with. Waymo at 2:15am after the bars let out is much less worrisome than any other car at that time, because I have no idea who's in that other car. Your father could be the safest driver ever, but I have no idea if it's him in the other car, or if that driver is totally blacked out and shouldn't be driving.
vzaliva 2y ago
I think the statistics they use to compare to human drivers are slightly misleading. They compare to the average human driver. I'm not sure I would entrust my life to a random driver, who could be a teenager who just got their driver's license, a 90-year-old grandma, or someone with prior reckless driving citations. For comparison, here are the requirements to become a taxi driver in San Francisco: [San Francisco Taxi Driver Requirements](https://www.sfmta.com/getting-around/taxi/become-taxi-driver https://www.sfmta.com/getting-around/taxi/become-taxi-driver). In conclusion, Waymo, being a taxi service, should compare their safety record to that of human taxi drivers.
- pmontra 2y ago
  Exactly, the scenario of everybody using a robotaxi should be compared to the scenario of everybody using taxis but not because of the requirements for obtaining a license. Instead I expect taxi drivers to drive safely because 1) their customers would report them if they drive dangerously and 2) crashes would prevent them from working and cost them the income of several days or worse.
  - fragmede 2y ago
    Taxi drivers are incentivized to drive as wrecklessly as possible (with a w). Safety is not their top priority, making money is.
    - pmontra 2y ago
      If they crash they don't make money. I don't live in the USA and I remember that taxi drivers were very fast when I was young. They are among the slowest drivers now.
- vineyardmike 2y ago
  (1) But the goal is also to get “random drivers” to stop driving. In theory, you may one day be able to own a private self-driving car, with the same safety record. (2) Uber drivers have a reputation for being extremely aggressive and don’t need a special license. I’d also like to see how they compare. (3) I do want to see the data you propose, because I think you’re fundamentally right.
Sad90sNerd 2y ago
This is great news for people who want to buckle themselves into an uncontrollable 70 mph thin-metaled panopticon : P I remember reading that these Waymo cars haven't been allowed onto highways until now. If thats true I wonder how that will change these statistics since that dramatically increases the need for the vehicle to think and perform...
- tracerbulletx 2y ago
  how so? driving around sf is way harder. its rainy foggy weird blind turns and alleys and steep gradients, cars and pedestrians coming from all directions, stop lights, unusual parking demands...
  - Sad90sNerd 2y ago
    [dead]
ChrisArchitect 2y ago
Some more discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41511987 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41511987

42 points by 2bluesc 2y ago

Just got a scooter in SF, friend told me to ride alongside Waymo where possible, as they're less likely to crash into you.

yieldcrv 2y ago

Just got my inaugural Waymo rides and access. Comparing to all drivers is one thing, but comparing to ride shares is another and yeah, Uber and Lyft are done. The market is definitely going to choose Waymo. The new reservations of a driverless car arent going to be big enough to trump the distrust and negative experience of other humans, given the option. The pricing is comparable, and the rest of the experience is better. The driverless part also seems trained on the driving customs of the area, here in LA it was assertive when it needed to be and overall impressive. LA has some sketchy left turn customs and the car did it fine.

TulliusCicero 2y ago
I'd definitely feel better in a self-driving car where I wouldn't feel any awkwardness about changing the music or just watching a loud video on my phone. As I understand it, a lot of women in the areas where Waymo's currently deployed feel safer without having a driver as well.
- meragrin_ 2y ago
  > a lot of women in the areas where Waymo's currently deployed feel safer without having a driver as well. Until criminals figure out they're sitting ducks.
  - htrp 2y ago
    how would they be a sitting duck in a driverless car?
    - yieldcrv 2y ago
      I guess they’re thinking to disrupt the car’s movement and predictability in stopping, in comparison to an erratic driver, who they also wont have to deal with when breaking into the car
      - yieldcrv 2y ago
        I think a deterrent to that are all the cameras on the car
  - TulliusCicero 2y ago
    This reminds me of the hysteria over the idea that people will randomly start fucking with road signs to put self-driving cars and their occupants in danger, and that this would be widespread and something that will impede SDC adoption.
eastbound 2y ago
In the middle east we often give way to other people by using the hands to show a “Here, please pass” gesture. It greatly accelerates the traffic because then pedestrians or cars don’t doubt your intention and can engage on the street. Do you do the same in LA for left turns, and did Waymo find a replacing clue?
- kevinventullo 2y ago
  Not OP, but I would guess he is talking about completing an unprotected left by pulling out into the intersection, waiting for the opposite traffic’s light to turn red and for those cars to stop, then completing the left as the cross-traffic’s light turns green. It’s kind of sketchy and probably legally dubious, but it’s the only way to turn left on busy intersections without a protected left. I’d feared that a Waymo would get stuck in such situations indefinitely, but they seem to be perfectly comfortable performing these left turns as a human would.
  - yieldcrv 2y ago
    They should update the driving test to say left on red is okay for the first 2 and a half vehicles then it wont be legally dubious
dyauspitr 2y ago
It’s bound to keep getting cheaper over time. It’s literally free, completely scalable “labor”.
Freedom2 2y ago
> The market is definitely going to choose Waymo. Given the tendency for premature HN opinions that are absolute to often swing the other way in practice, I'll be curious to see how this actually goes.
- yieldcrv 2y ago
  Can’t immortalize my username without being bold They’re doing all the right things, selective city rollout, FOMO inducing waitlist once there, offering great service once in
Sad90sNerd 2y ago
Waymo is a money hole it has never got close to making a profit. Think of all that equipment attached to a luxury SUV and the upkeep. The purpose of Waymo is research - you just get the privilege of paying to be a guinea pig. There is no market for Waymo - just Google who dumps money on it. Another important thing to think about is that Uber and Lyft are operated by people. Often these working people need the meager salary to live - wouldn't you rather support your local economy instead of being a research subject?
- yieldcrv 2y ago
  No. Next question. Any business that relies on charity over market validation is done. Waymos don't even ask for tips, the debate about it has been completely leapfrogged. I spent the last 10 years riding ubers, the next 10 in waymos. Very easy call.
  - Sad90sNerd 2y ago
    How is Google sponsoring a company hemorrhaging money not charity as well?
    - yieldcrv 2y ago
      I only care about the consumer experience Uber and Lyft subsidized their service with VC capital for a long time as well

Vecr 2y ago

AI systems should be able to do better. I don't think saying "yeah, we're done here" is acceptable. The next step is to start building models of human minds (as is modeling human behavior, not literal mind uploads), as well as models of every self driving car model, and do full on global (-ish, limited to the general area) optimization of outcomes according to a publicly available and audited decision theory and utility function. It's the only way to enable superhuman avoidance actions without making things worse by confusing others. This is why the models of humans and other robotic cars are needed.

nyrulez 2y ago
I missed the "yeah, we're done here" part. Don't think Waymo is going to pause their safety research program now.
- Vecr 2y ago
  It's in general sentiment I've seen in some places, not a literal quote. The article exhibits it somewhat, not explicitly explaining how the human average is dragged down by drivers that are partially incapacitated.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
GoatOfAplomb 2y ago
FWIW these companies already invest pretty heavily in predicting the behavior of other agents (cars, pedestrians, squirrels...) in the vicinity. But clearly it is not publicly available or audited.
jeffbee 2y ago
Isn't predicting the future actions of agents in the scene half of what Waymo already does?

modeless 2y ago

If only they would deploy faster. I really doubt their crash rate would spike up to human levels if they expanded 2x or 10x faster. Living in Silicon Valley I've been passing those cars for a decade without the opportunity to ride. Now they even have regulatory approval for this area, but still no service and no timeline for service.

TulliusCicero 2y ago
> I really doubt their crash rate would spike up to human levels if they expanded 2x or 10x faster. If you look at some of the skepticism around self-driving cars in the US, it makes sense that they're going slow and careful. Even if a spike in accidents was still lower than the equivalent for humans, that would bring a lot of political scrutiny to Waymo that would then slow their deployment.
- andrewmutz 2y ago
  It’s tragic that many lives will be lost due to the fear-driven slow rollout. It reminds me of the kids that die due to their parents fear of vaccines
  - JoshTriplett 2y ago
    It would be even more tragic if they went too quickly, there was some high-profile incident, and the backlash slowed rollout even more, resulting in even more lives lost in the long run.
    - shadowgovt 2y ago
      Worth remembering that Uber had one fatality and it resulted in the dissolution of the entire project. The stakes are very high and public tolerance for error is basically zero.
      - jefftk 2y ago
        Uber had one fatality, yes, but the investigation into that fatality showed fundamental issues with their approach: https://www.jefftk.com/p/uber-self-driving-crash https://www.jefftk.com/p/uber-self-driving-crash If instead it had turned out that their system was well built but ran into a freak edge case, I doubt they would have shut down.

jeffbee 2y ago

Humans are bad at driving and in the last 5 years the behavior of the most extreme drivers way out on the tail of the bad driver bell curve has become much worse. Waymo is just acting as a recording device to quantify how bad these bozos are.

shadowgovt 2y ago
One of the more fascinating consequences of the waymo project starting (back when it was still inside Google, not a bet) was the discovery from the telemetry Waymo collected that actual collisions are underreported by a factor of probably three. This is because nhtsa's data comes from accident reports and insurance claims, and people get into fender benders everyday that never get reported because nobody wants their rates to go up.

piombisallow 2y ago

Can't wait for the moment when the majority of cars on the road will be self-driving. I assume that safety will only increase as the proportion rises. The sheer amount of victims from driving is insane - we'll look back on it as we now look to infectious diseases of the past.

dyauspitr 2y ago
I’m looking forward to it but it’s sad in a way too. The self driving cars are going to be heavily regulated. In a really dystopian setup, you would be restricted from leaving your zone.
- jfoster 2y ago
  Two things: 1. If you judge new technology by the absolute worst way that it can be used, you are going to spend your life worrying about a million things that will never happen. Focus on stuff that's happening instead of hypotheticals. 2. In a really dystopian setup, you can be restricted from leaving "your zone" regardless of autonomous vehicles. There's plenty of existing technology that can help with that. (number plates, cellular networks, facial recognition, etc.)
  - kevinventullo 2y ago
    Not only is #2 possible today, it is in fact a lived reality for people in some parts of the world.
  - badsectoracula 2y ago
    > Focus on stuff that's happening instead of hypotheticals. How do you prevent "hypotheticals" from becoming "stuff that's happening" if you never pay any attention to them in the first place and let them happen?
    - sdrinf 2y ago
      Because hypotheticals have a process of moving into "stuff that's happening", on the timescale of years, decades. Once it's starts happening, speak; if speaking doesn't work, fight; if fighting doesn't work, move. This works.

lordofmoria 2y ago

I’d like to see a comparison of Waymo to the top 10% of drivers, rather than average. I’d consider my dad a good driver - he’s driven many hundreds of thousands of miles without a crash in probably 30 years. Does such data exist?

karlgkk 2y ago
I’d support such a comparison if 100% of drivers were the top 10% of drivers
roenxi 2y ago
Why? We have a major problem right now; cars are deathtraps and roads are murder weapons. We haven't been able to do anything about that historically without taking unacceptable economic damage, but we're right on the cusp of massive improvements to the situation. How the top 10% of drivers are going in amongst all that isn't really a factor as far as I can see. They'll probably end up banned from taking the wheel at some point for consistencies sake but they are ultimately not really a factor. Besides, automated cars will overtake (hehe) their skills at some point whether we track it specifically or not; in the long term humans can't compete against an engineered process.
- lordofmoria 2y ago
  Because if Waymo is clearly a better driver than average, but not better than me, it might affect my decision to use one.
  - htrp 2y ago
    lake wobegon effect?
fragmede 2y ago
The raw data is available for download and you can compare not getting into any accidents to their number of accidents per however many hundreds of thousands of miles. https://waymo.com/safety/impact/#downloads https://waymo.com/safety/impact/#downloads There isn't much to the data available for download, but it looks like 0.00001207261588 accidents per mile, or ~1.2 accidents per 100,000 miles (268/22199000). Figuring your father drives 15k miles per year, times 30 years and rounding up to 500k miles, Waymo has a recorded 6 accidents to your father's 0. Not sure why that's an interesting comparison, however. Assuming your dad is good at not driving when he shouldn't (tired/drunk/angry), he's not on the road when it's worrisome. I don't worry about getting into accidents with drivers who aren't on the road, I worry about the tired/drunk/angry drivers I do have to share the road with. Waymo at 2:15am after the bars let out is much less worrisome than any other car at that time, because I have no idea who's in that other car. Your father could be the safest driver ever, but I have no idea if it's him in the other car, or if that driver is totally blacked out and shouldn't be driving.

vzaliva 2y ago

I think the statistics they use to compare to human drivers are slightly misleading. They compare to the average human driver. I'm not sure I would entrust my life to a random driver, who could be a teenager who just got their driver's license, a 90-year-old grandma, or someone with prior reckless driving citations. For comparison, here are the requirements to become a taxi driver in San Francisco: [San Francisco Taxi Driver Requirements](https://www.sfmta.com/getting-around/taxi/become-taxi-driver https://www.sfmta.com/getting-around/taxi/become-taxi-driver). In conclusion, Waymo, being a taxi service, should compare their safety record to that of human taxi drivers.

pmontra 2y ago
Exactly, the scenario of everybody using a robotaxi should be compared to the scenario of everybody using taxis but not because of the requirements for obtaining a license. Instead I expect taxi drivers to drive safely because 1) their customers would report them if they drive dangerously and 2) crashes would prevent them from working and cost them the income of several days or worse.
- fragmede 2y ago
  Taxi drivers are incentivized to drive as wrecklessly as possible (with a w). Safety is not their top priority, making money is.
  - pmontra 2y ago
    If they crash they don't make money. I don't live in the USA and I remember that taxi drivers were very fast when I was young. They are among the slowest drivers now.
vineyardmike 2y ago
(1) But the goal is also to get “random drivers” to stop driving. In theory, you may one day be able to own a private self-driving car, with the same safety record. (2) Uber drivers have a reputation for being extremely aggressive and don’t need a special license. I’d also like to see how they compare. (3) I do want to see the data you propose, because I think you’re fundamentally right.

Sad90sNerd 2y ago

This is great news for people who want to buckle themselves into an uncontrollable 70 mph thin-metaled panopticon : P I remember reading that these Waymo cars haven't been allowed onto highways until now. If thats true I wonder how that will change these statistics since that dramatically increases the need for the vehicle to think and perform...

tracerbulletx 2y ago
how so? driving around sf is way harder. its rainy foggy weird blind turns and alleys and steep gradients, cars and pedestrians coming from all directions, stop lights, unusual parking demands...
- Sad90sNerd 2y ago
  [dead]

ChrisArchitect 2y ago

Some more discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41511987 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41511987