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The fundamental problem is that the monetary systems of the modern world are all designed on the Wile E. Coyote principle. As long as you never look down, the
by bokonist 14y ago
The fundamental problem is that the monetary systems of the modern world are all designed on the Wile E. Coyote principle. As long as you never look down, the system works.
In the U.S. there is ~$14 trillion in government debt. There exists tens of trillion more in private debt. But only $2 trillion exists in bonafide, actual, real honest-to-goodness dollars (I'm including in that count accounts at the federal reserve, not just paper money).
How is this system sustainable? How can any of this debt ever be repaid? Well, since everyone knows the government can print money, most people do not worry about the government being insolvent. A dollar T-Bill is as good as a dollar green bill, both are backed by the full faith and credit of the USG. If the government needs to, it can always print money to redeem mature treasury debt. Since no one worries about insolvency, most people would rather have treasury bills (or a deposit account or CD backed by TBills) because they pay interest. So the $14 trillion rolls over in perpetuity. In reality, $14 trillion is not really debt, since it is nonsensical to speak of debt that one owes oneself and can negate by printing paper. The $14 trillion is the money supply - T-Bills are just a dividend paying form of money.
However, the situation in Europe is much more sticky. Europe runs the same type of monetary system. There are tens of trillions in Euro denominated debt, but only $1.3 trillion in actual bonafide Euros. However - unlike with the dollar - the countries that created this debt do not have the power to create Euros. So as suddenly as markets lose confidence in the debt, it becomes impossible to roll over the debt and pay it off. There simply are not enough Euros in the world to pay off even a small amount of debt. Every single country in Europe would be insolvent if investors look down and lose confidence. Even Germany could not pay its debt if investors demanded redemption at maturity The European Union government could order the european central bank to print money to buy out the debt, but this creates all sorts of political conflict as it results in transferring real wealth from country A to country B.
So that's why Europe is stuck. It adopted a monetary system that works when the government controls the currency, and adopted it in a situation where governments cannot print money. No one in Europe has the brains or authority to actually refactor and re-architect the system, so they are just muddling around, following the path of least resistance and putting in stop-gap measures.
My own pet solution is on my blog:
http://intellectual-detox.com/europes-crisis/ http://intellectual-detox.com/europes-crisis/
If anybody from the ECB reads Hacker News, I am available for hire as a consultant at the low, low fee of 1 ounce of gold an hour :-)
- bgilroy26 14y agoI thought US debt was backed by the military? The debt represents faith in the United States and the world-system as a whole. I think the only way this could collapse Wile E. Coyote style was if the trade routes in the Atlantic and the Pacific developed a huge problem with highwaymen and the US military couldn't lock it down.
- gaius 14y agoWell yes and no. The way you establish a currency is as follows, traditionally: you assume political control over some area of land, and all political power is backed ultimately by military power (tho' cushioned by laws, courts, police, etc internally). Then you declare that everyone living on this land must pay taxes, and they must pay these taxes in... Seashells, or gold doubloons, or tons of flax, or whatever. Hey presto, you have a currency! Later on for convenience sake you can keep all your seashells in a vault and use paper tokens instead. The thing is tho', you want other countries to accept seashells too, places where you have no political or military control. The way this happens is that those seashells can be exchanged for goods and services provided by your citizens, who need seashells anyway to pay their taxes, so might as well use them for everything else too. Therefore the value of a seashell on the currency market (i.e. outside your borders) is backed by the industrial power of your country. So to sum up, a military backs a currency only in the sense that the military holds borders in which industry can operate safely - and not in the sense of military as ultimate debt collectors. At least, the Greeks better hope not.
- calibraxis 14y agoYeah, no country's going to compel the US to pay back its debt, given that the US probably spends about as much on the military as the rest of the world combined. Instead, they simply roll over the debt by buying more US Treasury IOUs. It looks far more like tribute to the military superpower, than the usual creditor-debtor relationship where the creditor dominates the debtor. Of course, weak countries must pay their debts (even when a military dictatorship racks up odious debt), which is a lever to force them to ruin their societies through austerity programs.
- 14y ago