4 ms·

> Dell is replacing Etsy Esty had no place in the S&P 500 in the first place. Looking at the chart it was a pump and dump stock and was only pumped due to the

by rvz 2y ago

> Dell is replacing Etsy Esty had no place in the S&P 500 in the first place. Looking at the chart it was a pump and dump stock and was only pumped due to the zero interest rate phenomenon with decades of QE (quantitative easing) policy. Etsy should join the rest of the worthless SPAC companies that almost all of them ran straight to zero. Goodbye. Tesla was lucky this time. They are next to be kicked out of the S&P 500 if they decide to join in the race to continue to damage their own stock.

kylebenzle 2y ago
Agree 100% Etsy is now worthless but claiming Tesla is similar to Etsy seems to be pushing it. Etsy's biggest "innovation" was they displayed their hand picked products on the homepage by color. Tesla single handedly drove adoption of electric cars to where it is today, for better or worse Tesla has had a MAJOR impact on the world.
- zooq_ai 2y ago
  [dead]
refulgentis 2y ago
There's a ton of successful companies that also were described this way, and I agreed, in 2018. I was wrong on most of them. Memento mori, hindsight is 20/20. Using one company as evidence of a broad thesis makes the argument seem weaker, not stronger. Hell, Uber. I can't remember a single time their prospects were ever discussed positively, they were the "ZIRP" poster boy.
- reducesuffering 2y ago
  Uber is the prime example of proving the perma-bears wrong. They were a great investment for everyone but possibly the last private Softbank overvaluation. Their rides have been profitable for years and are a $150 billion company after 5% rates.
  - refulgentis 2y ago
    Exactly
  - TheAlchemist 2y ago
    I just looked it up, and I'm not sure it can be used as an example of proving perma-bears wrong. As it is, the company is valued at $150 billions, but in the past 5 years only the last one was profitable - with a $2 billion profit. Where do you see the 'rides have been profitable for years' ? It actually looks quite wildly overvalued to me. Perma-bears will be proved wrong once the company start making real money justifying their valuation.
    - reducesuffering 2y ago
      “with trips up 22% and a GAAP operating profit, for the first time in Uber’s history”[0] And I believe that was YoY profit, so profitable the year before that date and profitable the past year since. Investing in Uber Eats expansion was hampering profitability but not the rides. Before rides was profitable they were a $50b company, so if you correctly believed they would improve probability, you would’ve 3x your investment from 2 years ago. Same thing happened for those critical Facebook, Google, or Amazon could ever be profitable. [0] https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-details/2023/Uber-Announces-Results-for-Second-Quarter-2023/default.aspx https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-det...
  - Maken 2y ago
    Is it really? Last time I checked around a third of their revenue came from Uber Eats, which is an separate business model they joined early on using the capital they got to develop their core business. Without that income their car ride service would still be unprofitable.
    - margalabargala 2y ago
      According to my reading of their financial statement, ride sharing is more profitable than delivery. https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-details/2024/Uber-Announces-Results-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2023/default.aspx https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-det...
sealeck 2y ago
> Etsy should join the rest of the worthless SPAC companies that almost all of them ran straight to zero. Goodbye. I don't think Etsy is worthless (it has ~US$2.5bn in revenue), but I think the correct value of Etsy is much lower than it currently is and certainly not a valuation with a market cap placing it in the S&P500.
brightball 2y ago
Ummm…Tesla was lucky? Can you explain that stance?
hmmokidk 2y ago
I don’t like Elon but Tesla I think deserves to be there. Stocks are kind of like how much people beleive in a company. And lots of people believe in them as they have products people like and a strong brand.
- andrewmcwatters 2y ago
  Not at all how stocks work, and it can be dangerous as a society if we encourage saying things like this.
  - matrix87 2y ago
    > and it can be dangerous as a society if we encourage saying things like this. why?
    - andrewmcwatters 2y ago
      Because in particular, impressionable young men in large amounts in the public think ownership of businesses works in ways that it definitely does not, and it affects the way they make purchasing decisions. You’re not buying “a stock,” you’re buying shares of an actual business and you need to judge for yourself a reasonable price as to what you think you’re buying it for. I’d argue we’re probably already there. It’s why people don’t think twice about paying $25+ per $1 of earnings and don’t realize what a stupid decision that is and then they try and rationalize it by saying, “Oh, well the business will continue to grow and that’s what you’re paying such high prices for.” No, you’re just getting scammed. It’s the same thinking that led us to predominantly young men buying a non-tangible thing just because it goes up in price, in the hopes that some greater fool will buy it from you for said greater price.
      - matrix87 2y ago
        > No, you’re just getting scammed But hasn't the market already incorporated PE ratio (and other factors) into the company's estimated value? It sounds like what you're saying is PE ratio has more predictive value than whatever indicators people are using (e.g. press coverage and leather jackets) Or are you saying that our entire concept of value is screwed up? Not really clear
nojvek 2y ago
Tesla is worth $650B. #11 largest US company. They’re making profits, selling more cars every year. I get it’s fashionable to dish Elon, but their fundamentals say its unlikely they’ll fall out of S&P500

by rvz 2y ago

kylebenzle 2y ago

Agree 100% Etsy is now worthless but claiming Tesla is similar to Etsy seems to be pushing it. Etsy's biggest "innovation" was they displayed their hand picked products on the homepage by color. Tesla single handedly drove adoption of electric cars to where it is today, for better or worse Tesla has had a MAJOR impact on the world.

zooq_ai 2y ago
[dead]

refulgentis 2y ago

There's a ton of successful companies that also were described this way, and I agreed, in 2018. I was wrong on most of them. Memento mori, hindsight is 20/20. Using one company as evidence of a broad thesis makes the argument seem weaker, not stronger. Hell, Uber. I can't remember a single time their prospects were ever discussed positively, they were the "ZIRP" poster boy.

reducesuffering 2y ago
Uber is the prime example of proving the perma-bears wrong. They were a great investment for everyone but possibly the last private Softbank overvaluation. Their rides have been profitable for years and are a $150 billion company after 5% rates.
- refulgentis 2y ago
  Exactly
- TheAlchemist 2y ago
  I just looked it up, and I'm not sure it can be used as an example of proving perma-bears wrong. As it is, the company is valued at $150 billions, but in the past 5 years only the last one was profitable - with a $2 billion profit. Where do you see the 'rides have been profitable for years' ? It actually looks quite wildly overvalued to me. Perma-bears will be proved wrong once the company start making real money justifying their valuation.
  - reducesuffering 2y ago
    “with trips up 22% and a GAAP operating profit, for the first time in Uber’s history”[0] And I believe that was YoY profit, so profitable the year before that date and profitable the past year since. Investing in Uber Eats expansion was hampering profitability but not the rides. Before rides was profitable they were a $50b company, so if you correctly believed they would improve probability, you would’ve 3x your investment from 2 years ago. Same thing happened for those critical Facebook, Google, or Amazon could ever be profitable. [0] https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-details/2023/Uber-Announces-Results-for-Second-Quarter-2023/default.aspx https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-det...
- Maken 2y ago
  Is it really? Last time I checked around a third of their revenue came from Uber Eats, which is an separate business model they joined early on using the capital they got to develop their core business. Without that income their car ride service would still be unprofitable.
  - margalabargala 2y ago
    According to my reading of their financial statement, ride sharing is more profitable than delivery. https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-details/2024/Uber-Announces-Results-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2023/default.aspx https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-det...

sealeck 2y ago

> Etsy should join the rest of the worthless SPAC companies that almost all of them ran straight to zero. Goodbye. I don't think Etsy is worthless (it has ~US$2.5bn in revenue), but I think the correct value of Etsy is much lower than it currently is and certainly not a valuation with a market cap placing it in the S&P500.

brightball 2y ago

Ummm…Tesla was lucky? Can you explain that stance?

hmmokidk 2y ago

I don’t like Elon but Tesla I think deserves to be there. Stocks are kind of like how much people beleive in a company. And lots of people believe in them as they have products people like and a strong brand.

andrewmcwatters 2y ago
Not at all how stocks work, and it can be dangerous as a society if we encourage saying things like this.
- matrix87 2y ago
  > and it can be dangerous as a society if we encourage saying things like this. why?
  - andrewmcwatters 2y ago
    Because in particular, impressionable young men in large amounts in the public think ownership of businesses works in ways that it definitely does not, and it affects the way they make purchasing decisions. You’re not buying “a stock,” you’re buying shares of an actual business and you need to judge for yourself a reasonable price as to what you think you’re buying it for. I’d argue we’re probably already there. It’s why people don’t think twice about paying $25+ per $1 of earnings and don’t realize what a stupid decision that is and then they try and rationalize it by saying, “Oh, well the business will continue to grow and that’s what you’re paying such high prices for.” No, you’re just getting scammed. It’s the same thinking that led us to predominantly young men buying a non-tangible thing just because it goes up in price, in the hopes that some greater fool will buy it from you for said greater price.
    - matrix87 2y ago
      > No, you’re just getting scammed But hasn't the market already incorporated PE ratio (and other factors) into the company's estimated value? It sounds like what you're saying is PE ratio has more predictive value than whatever indicators people are using (e.g. press coverage and leather jackets) Or are you saying that our entire concept of value is screwed up? Not really clear

nojvek 2y ago

Tesla is worth $650B. #11 largest US company. They’re making profits, selling more cars every year. I get it’s fashionable to dish Elon, but their fundamentals say its unlikely they’ll fall out of S&P500