10 ms·

Ditching EVs for Hybrids Is Already Paying Off for Automakers

29 points by ChumpGPT 2y ago

millzy 2y ago
No bias here!
Mistletoe 2y ago
There are an incredible amount of links in this article. It’s like a linkfarm.
wffurr 2y ago
I don't know why hybrids weren't standard issue 10 years ago. Federal fuel efficiency standards should have mandated them, but instead they spent years locked in a political / culture war battle over this.
- 01HNNWZ0MV43FF 2y ago
  The Prius is over 20 years old and it's been a great option the whole time. I don't know why plug-in hybrids took so long I wish we could have a carbon tax instead of efficiency standards but voters vote based on gas prices so...
  - idontwantthis 2y ago
    Plugin hybrids don’t make economic sense. The 2024 Prius Prime costs $5000 more than the regular hybrid. If you are generous and say 9/10 days you drive fewer than 40 miles, so you won’t use any gas, then that means you save about .8 gallons of gas per day. Again being generous with the range. With average gas price that means you are saving $2.64 per day (assuming your charging is free which it is not). That means it would take over 5 years to make back the plugin premium. On top of that, you get worse mileage than the regular hybrid when you are using gas. Edit: You’re also still paying for oil changes, transmission changes, and any other regular or unexpected maintenance on the ICE drive train with a plugin hybrid.
- AtlasBarfed 2y ago
  I agree, practically every consumer ice vehicle should have a 50 mile all-electric range at this point. I think this is very doable with sodium ion in advanced lfp. I think the issue for investors with a car company is that it represents a lack of ability to handle the evening transition and so it really does Mark your company as a dinosaur and keeps them from properly innovating and transitioning. With sodium ion and advanced lfp, the cost of a very very capable EV is going to permanently drop underneath an ICE. There's simply too much simplification of the drivetrain in EVs once batteries become cheap.
  - idontwantthis 2y ago
    See my comment above. They cost more than regular hybrids and save you less money than a full EV. They make no economic sense for consumers.
    - thechao 2y ago
      Why do they cost more? Is it the additional hardware needed for the charging? I have a hard time believing that hardware is $5k. I have an easier time believing that the car manufacturers are gouging people interested in this solution space. This seems like an easy win for legislation: we just mandate that every consumer vehicle has to have a 35-mile minimum all-battery range with plug-in capabilities; the same way we mandate that consumer vehicles have to have catalytic converters.
      - idontwantthis 2y ago
        Mandating something doesn’t make it free. You mandate plugin then you just mandated that all cars cost $5000 (at least) more plus you removed downward price pressure from nonplugins so they will cost even more. It’s an entire second drive train and fuel system. It’s going to cost money. I also forgot to add in the fact that you still have full ICE maintenance costs with a plugin.
        AtlasBarfed 2y ago
- Merad 2y ago
  Yes, I think this has been a huge missed opportunity. Making hybrids the standard car is a big win for fuel efficiency. Then shifting towards plugin hybrids with a 40-50 mile EV range has the opportunity to radically reduce emissions without giving consumers any concerns about range anxiety. Do this shift over the course of a decade or two, use that time to build out charger infrastructure, _then_ start pushing towards pure EV's.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- dehrmann 2y ago
  When I was shopping for a sedan in 2016, part of it was trunk space. You also pay more for a more complex drivetrain that has higher maintenance costs. I already shut off my car's feature to stop the engine at stop lights because I'd rather pay for gas than engine, starter, and battery wear.
  - wffurr 2y ago
    The Prius is one of the most reliable vehicles ever made. I don't buy the "higher maintenance costs" argument.
SoftTalker 2y ago
Range anxiety with pure EVs is a real thing for many car buyers. Hybrids take that concern off the table.
- millzy 2y ago
  It shouldn't be. There should be more education about why EVs are the clear choice.
  - atonse 2y ago
    Yeah but I think range anxiety is a great name because a lot of anxiety can't just be "explained" away. I've tried for years with certain friends. People don't like the _idea_ that they could one day be stranded without a nearby charger, or (even though this has literally never happened to me in 6 years), being _forced_ to wait 3 hours to charge your car. I think NACS will help with this since the Tesla Supercharger network is quite amazing in its coverage and speed of charging. So as other cars get access to it, it'll make owning an EV more palatable.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    - WorldMaker 2y ago
      It's fun to remind people that "range anxiety" was a term in literature a century ago referring to how hard it was to find gasoline (in certain city Pharmacies with certain old fashioned medicines they made in house, in certain city Blacksmiths that used gasoline as a forge starter, and that was about it). Every person that has ever driven a car has some version or another of the range anxiety of making it to the next gas station or not knowing how long of a stretch it will be between gas stations on some interstate. The earliest versions of that were a lot worse when gas stations were a (full service) novelty. The fun part of the original uses of "range anxiety" was that it was also used in contrast to EVs at the time. You might not know where the next gas station might be, but electricity is easy to spot and you could charge an EV at any friendly house or business you stopped at with an exterior outlet to pick up a few miles to get back to where you needed to be. EVs were the cars where "fuel" was everywhere and plentiful and there were few worries about if you needed to make an extra stop somewhere that you could find a plug. At some point we're going to see things flip back to that. When gas gets expensive enough, when gas pumps start to close fast enough, when more people have practical experience with EVs and home charging and even Level 1 charging as cheap and ubiquitous (if not the best charging experience; this is where Edison bites us by pushing the main US electrical outlets to be half the voltage of other continents out of losing the AC/DC war) things will flip back to that original "range anxiety" perspective. Gas is the weird, flammable thing that should be hard to find. Electricity is almost "everywhere the (LED) light touches". But yes, "anxiety" isn't always rational and you can explain that to a lot of individuals, and they may get it rationally, but it will take a lot more momentum to sway the more emotional parts of their brain, especially those tuned to the zeitgeist and feeling a shared "cultural anxiety" here. (I also think NACS is going to help. It was dumb for us to have two competing plug standards for quite as long as we did. The latest model of the Hyundai Ioniq 5 is the first non-Tesla NACS "native" car available to purchase and early reviews are quite favorable about that.)
jgrahamc 2y ago
I bought a car back in 2003 and replaced it in 2020. I looked at a bunch of options in 2020 because I really wanted an electric vehicle and ultimately opted for a plug-in hybrid. Between the range and infrastructure a fully electric vehicle sounded like a pain to manage. Most of my driving is electric because it's around town, but I can go a long distance without any stress or delay. One day I hope I won't feel the need to burn fuel.
canadiantim 2y ago
Anyone have any idea of the batteries of hybrids vs full on EVs? Are they similar, the same?
- toast0 2y ago
  Depends on the car I'm sure. But hybrid batteries are much lower capacity, and there's a lot less pressure to optimize capacity. If your EV has a 200 mile range, and you can optimize the battery to get 10% more range, that's useful. If your PHEV has a 30 mile EV only range, 10% more doesn't do much unless that's what it takes to hit a regulatory target. For a non plug in hybrid, a 10% increase in capacity is even less noticable. I think you'll see more focus on density (space and charge) in EVs because of this; but as EVs commercialize denser batteries, may as well put those in hybrids if the cost or space savings are meaningful.
- timbit42 2y ago
  The battery in a HEV can only hold enough energy to go a few kms which results in about a 40% saving in fuel used in an ICEV. The battery in a PHEV can go typically 50 kms before it reverts to HEV mode. This can result in an 80% to 90% reduction in fuel usage, depending on how far you typically drive each day.
- WorldMaker 2y ago
  There's a massive weight trade-off. ICE engines are heavy, even when just used as an electrical generator. Carrying that weight means a lot less weight for batteries (and a lot less capacity). So generally at this point the battery chemistries are about the same, but there's a lot less battery in a hybrid.
fnordpiglet 2y ago
The whole argument of hybrid vs EV strikes me as very point in time despite the phrasing in the discussion as being some sort of pivotal deciding battle for all of history. The reality is ICE in general, hybrids doubly so, are extraordinarily complex machines with over 100 years of highly funded research invested. EVs are incredibly simple machines with a limited amount of research applied mostly by a few companies that are very young. The engineer in me sees the complexity argument as insurmountable. Over time ICE improvements will be flat as diminishing returns set in two decades or more ago. Their complexity isn’t going down, every improvement adds a more complex manufacturing process and complex machine - either in terms of materials or process. EVs are almost certainly on the other path where their machine becomes simpler in exchange for a more complex science, but the science is effectively the same science that yielded modern computers - solid state, in the end, in a manufacturing process that can scale absurdly. The machines if built with intention will effectively never break or need maintenance beyond a few simple parts. The disposable parts are 100% recyclable. As t->inf the age of fire is already over, and the age of maxwells equations is starting in earnest. As we put down our distilled flaming dinosaur juice and take up fundamental forces, these discussions will feel anachronistic rapidly. The infrastructure discussions are simply engineering and investment challenges, which will yield, as the complexity of the underlying machine has already doomed the ICE.
- echelon 2y ago
  I live in a cotton mill built in the 1800s. It's a historic property registered with my state, and we can't make many changes to it. Even the concrete pavement is designated as "historic" (everyone finds that ridiculous). Given these parameters, we've only managed to install two EV charging stations for well over a thousand residents. It's wholly inadequate for the 20+ Teslas we have on campus. The problem for me is that I have ADHD. It's extremely easy for me to forget things like removing my car from the loading zone, so there's no way in hell I'd be compatible with going in and out to constantly move my car around. I'd either never get my car charged, or I'd piss off everyone for leaving it parked in charging for days. Even if the governing body somehow relented and we could install dozens of charging points, it still wouldn't alleviate the problem for me. There's no way I could organize my life around the ceremony of charging. EVs just don't work for some people. The math might look right on paper, but the shape of reality has more dimensionality to it.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
jmugan 2y ago
Hybrids just seem like double the complexity. Maybe there are synergies that I don't know about. I wish we had higher gas taxes (we could lower other taxes to compensate).
- timbit42 2y ago
  The engine in a hybrid is simpler and more reliable because it is not directly connected to the wheels so there is less stress on it. The engines in Toyota's hybrids don't even have a starter because the CVT just spins the crank shaft and then they apply spark to the plugs. My Prius is 18 years old and the only thing I've had to do to the engine is change the oil every 10,000 kilometers. The electric side has even less complexity and higher reliability.
  - tharmas 2y ago
    I think if they were going to "mandate" what kind of engine to use it should have been the hybrid. This would've given the necessary time to build up the support infrastructure necessary for electric only vehicles. Along with a hybrid mandate they could've included a charging infrastructure mandate.
- toast0 2y ago
  There's a fundamental synergy in that electric motors get less efficient as you go faster, and internal combustion engines have their most efficient output at significant RPMs. Using electric at low speeds and ICE at high speeds lets you use the two methods for what they're best at. The Toyota Synergy Drive design (used by many, but not all, hybrids) uses the two electric motor/generators to let the ICE run in its efficient RPM range at most speeds. There's probably more moving parts than a full EV, but it's probably less complex than a full ICE. You add one motor, but the transmission/transaxle is a whole lot simpler mechanically. And you have access to the liquid fuel network which is mature and ubiquitous. My PHEV has a two year service interval, so maintenance is not too bad. Ford had a bad batch of transmissions, and mine had to be replaced, but if they had manufactured it properly, it would have been bullet proof. The engine can be even more optimized for the efficient RPM bands it runs in, because the engine control system means it will only rarely run outside those bands.
WorldMaker 2y ago
The real headline seems to just be "Toyota and Honda still don't know how to sell EVs to Americans, have mostly sort of given up for now, and surprisingly aren't being punished in the market for it." > Hybrids are also sort of hurting EVs, aided by competitive pricing that is cannibalizing EV sales. Battery-powered cars and light trucks will account for just nine percent of industry deliveries in the U.S. this year. That’s down from the previous forecast of 12.4 percent. Ah, lies, damned lies, and then statistics. The industry forecast of 12.4% may have been too aggressive (which rectum did that number even come from, by the way? The manufacturers still haven't even committed to 12.4% growth on the supply side, they aren't making EVs that fast), but 9% is still a strong year-over-year growth and a faster growing rate than the hybrids mentioned in the article. The statistic here seems to be that Prius sales aren't shrinking. They aren't growing. They don't seem to be "hurting EVs" they seem to be continuing plain ICE sales. But it's not statistics is an easy math field or anything.
reallymental 2y ago
The main question is, how the hell did Toyota foresee this? They didn't go all gung-ho on the EV hype train and stuck to their word, even when the others rushed in headfirst. Is this "Hybrid Hype" a realization, or is it a knee-jerk reaction to China now gaining more ground on the EV vehicles + Elon's latest antics?
- Ekaros 2y ago
  To me the edge cases were always obvious. For city car something like plug-in Yaris will do the same job. But also manage to cover the trips on limit of range. That is two way trips. Going to somewhere and coming back without stopping, maybe 4 hour drive total on highway...
- WorldMaker 2y ago
  Toyota didn't foresee this, Toyota is still just riding the conservative strategy they've been following for 20+ years and the Prius as the hybrid that most matters to the US market. Also hybrids aren't really growing, it's mostly that EVs haven't yet dethroned the Prius, despite Toyota failing to properly invest in it and getting lost in the wilderness of Hydrogen for two decades. (Honda is the fun one mentioned in the article and is mostly playing catch-up to Toyota 20 years after having also wasted too much time on Hydrogen.)
ilamont 2y ago
The jaw-dropper in this story isn't hybrids, it's the section about hydrogen. Toyota is staying the course, now joined by BMW. The writer concludes: I really hope someone can figure out how to make hydrogen work on a consumer scale because it’s a really neat piece of technology that could make a big difference as we move further away from fossil fuels. Yes, hydrogen vehicles seem like a great idea in theory but practically speaking it's been a disaster. There's no mention of the dumpster fire in California, the only U.S. state where hydrogen has a foothold. From "Shell Closes Its Hydrogen Stations In California" this February: There are 54 publicly available hydrogen refueling stations in the Golden State, with a varying number of them regularly listed as “offline” at any given time. As of presstime, for instance, 19 of California’s stations were not open for business. Sometimes as many as half of them are unavailable. https://www.autoweek.com/news/a46791348/shell-closes-hydrogen-stations-california/ https://www.autoweek.com/news/a46791348/shell-closes-hydroge... I can't find the article now, but the LA Times or WSJ interviewed hydrogen car owners in California and getting towed seems to be a regular occurrence when refueling stations are out of order.
- buzzert 2y ago
  The Verge had a great YouTube video about this recently: https://youtu.be/Mc9XaeEyZ8M https://youtu.be/Mc9XaeEyZ8M
1970-01-01 2y ago
Prediction: In 2035, when used Teslas and other long-range EVs are going for ~$5k, these hybrids will be almost worthless.
- timbit42 2y ago
  If they are plug-in hybrids, they will still make great second vehicles for doing errands.
amluto 2y ago
I would love to see longer range PHEVs or series hybrids. Something that could go 50 miles on battery power and any distance on gas would capture most of the cost/greenhouse gas savings of electric and avoid any range / charging problems. At 40 cents/kWh at a level 3 charger, electric mode isn’t actually winning in cost vs an efficient hybrid using gasoline.
realo 2y ago
I live in a old building in a city with a lot of old buildings. People mostly park their cars in the streets , with a special zone permit. I would love to have an EV only car, but there is basically zero charging spot , public or otherwise, made available by the city in the streets (where we park our cars). As long as cities do not improve their urban environments with A LOT of charging stations everywhere, then pure EV is not practical.
- fmajid 2y ago
  I live in London. My local council (Camden) equipped every other lamp-post with a Siemens Ubitricity (now owned by Shell) EV charger 2 years ago. Problem solved.
  - buzzert 2y ago
    But can the grid handle every lamp-post charging an EV at the same time?
  - erik_seaberg 2y ago
    Does every street have lamp posts? Mine only has a few power poles because they didn't bury the lines to the houses.
songeater 2y ago
I would note that "hybrids" in China (where plug-in-hybrids have gone to 16% of market share, up 700bps y/y) is a fundamentally different architecture than hybrids in the west. In China (see Li Auto [1] for example) hybrids are Battery Electric vehicles (ie no gearbox, fully electric motor) with a small gasoline generator and tank to recharge the battery. This is "best of both worlds"... you get the electric motor, which is much more efficient / cheaper than an ICE transmission. Then the gasoline generator is just tuned to maximize efficiency (~44% efficiency to electric, vs the mid-30s on an ICE motor) so the net efficiency of the hybrid is far superior to a Prius-plug-in type structure. These are termed Electric Range Extender Vehicles ("EREV"s), which is type of a Plug-in Hybrid since you can charge by plugging in the battery or by filling in gas. Really surprised haven't seen these EREVs in the west, although Hyundai is supposed to launch in US in 2026. Could be game-changer when that happens... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Auto https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Auto
- timbit42 2y ago
  That's essentially what the Chevy Volt was, but when the engine kicks in, it isn't as efficient as a Toyota Prius.
  - songeater 2y ago
    Yes! Difference is the current-gen EREVs are in a different league of performance with the advancement in electric powertrain and software. Think change between a Model 3 and a Chevy Bolt...
    - timbit42 2y ago
      Normally I would call both the Chevy Volt and Toyota Prius HEVs but if the Volt is an EREV, what is the Prius? Also, would you classify a Prius Prime an EREV?
hnburnsy 2y ago
Sorry but these articles praising hybrids never mention two important things... 1) Hybrid demand is partly driven by the manufactures who need to meet government fuel economy standards. 2) People don't plug in their hybrids, thus the vehicles are not actually meeting those standards in the real world... >The analysis of the new datasets presents strong evidence that real-world electric drive share is far below the utility factor label rating. Specifically, the analysis finds that real-world electric drive share may be 26%–56% lower and real-world fuel consumption may be 42%–67% higher than assumed within EPA’s labeling program for light duty vehicles. https://theicct.org/publication/real-world-phev-us-dec22/?utm_source=syndication https://theicct.org/publication/real-world-phev-us-dec22/?ut...
- floxy 2y ago
  >2) People don't plug in their hybrids Does anyone know why they don't? It seems strange to me that you would pay extra for a feature, and then not use it. But maybe these people are getting governmental subsidies that end up lowering the cost below the gas-only version of the same vehicle? So they never really had an intention to plug in to begin with?
  - hnburnsy 2y ago
    Car manufactures wont say... >Plug-In Hybrids: Do They Get Plugged In? Even Carmakers Won't Say >Without data from carmakers showing drivers plug them in, plug-in hybrids may only be compliance cars that do little to cut emissions. https://insideevs.com/features/727919/phev-plugged-in-user-data https://insideevs.com/features/727919/phev-plugged-in-user-d...
while_true_ 2y ago
Four reasons I prefer my 100% EV over a hybrid: - EVs never need oil changes. Hybrids still do. - I really like charging up in the privacy of my own garage. Hybrids have to refuel at a gas station. - EVs have no cat converter to steal. Hybrids have that threat risk. - EVs don't have radiators, water pumps, or transmissions. Hybrids do, meaning more maintenance later.
1vuio0pswjnm7 2y ago
Here is another one from this website submitted by ChumpGPT that scared the HN Musk/Tesla fans. https://jalopnik.com/half-of-teslas-q2-profit-came-from-your-taxes-1851606200 https://jalopnik.com/half-of-teslas-q2-profit-came-from-your... People who are truly concerned about the environment walk, ride bikes and take public transort. Tesla owners on the other hand use the environment as a "justification" for purchasing a battery-powered computer on wheels that the owner cannot control whilst it performs surveillance and phones home to the mothership.
xela79 2y ago
Toyota not onboard for full EV? the same Toyota that was lobbying against full EV companies for years? the same Toyota that only has Hybrids and has invested all their R&D into Hydrogen? say it ain't so
albertopv 2y ago
It may be EV and infrastructure are just not really there. In Italy outside of cities you have to use a car, no questions. You take a state road or extra-urban and battery range easily drop to 250km at most. There are many charge stations, but often they don't work, or are placed far from needed. Here many have no way to charge at home. And EV prices are far higher than ICE ones, which are insane theirself.

29 points by ChumpGPT 2y ago

millzy 2y ago

No bias here!

Mistletoe 2y ago

There are an incredible amount of links in this article. It’s like a linkfarm.

wffurr 2y ago

I don't know why hybrids weren't standard issue 10 years ago. Federal fuel efficiency standards should have mandated them, but instead they spent years locked in a political / culture war battle over this.

01HNNWZ0MV43FF 2y ago
The Prius is over 20 years old and it's been a great option the whole time. I don't know why plug-in hybrids took so long I wish we could have a carbon tax instead of efficiency standards but voters vote based on gas prices so...
- idontwantthis 2y ago
  Plugin hybrids don’t make economic sense. The 2024 Prius Prime costs $5000 more than the regular hybrid. If you are generous and say 9/10 days you drive fewer than 40 miles, so you won’t use any gas, then that means you save about .8 gallons of gas per day. Again being generous with the range. With average gas price that means you are saving $2.64 per day (assuming your charging is free which it is not). That means it would take over 5 years to make back the plugin premium. On top of that, you get worse mileage than the regular hybrid when you are using gas. Edit: You’re also still paying for oil changes, transmission changes, and any other regular or unexpected maintenance on the ICE drive train with a plugin hybrid.
AtlasBarfed 2y ago
I agree, practically every consumer ice vehicle should have a 50 mile all-electric range at this point. I think this is very doable with sodium ion in advanced lfp. I think the issue for investors with a car company is that it represents a lack of ability to handle the evening transition and so it really does Mark your company as a dinosaur and keeps them from properly innovating and transitioning. With sodium ion and advanced lfp, the cost of a very very capable EV is going to permanently drop underneath an ICE. There's simply too much simplification of the drivetrain in EVs once batteries become cheap.
- idontwantthis 2y ago
  See my comment above. They cost more than regular hybrids and save you less money than a full EV. They make no economic sense for consumers.
  - thechao 2y ago
    Why do they cost more? Is it the additional hardware needed for the charging? I have a hard time believing that hardware is $5k. I have an easier time believing that the car manufacturers are gouging people interested in this solution space. This seems like an easy win for legislation: we just mandate that every consumer vehicle has to have a 35-mile minimum all-battery range with plug-in capabilities; the same way we mandate that consumer vehicles have to have catalytic converters.
    - idontwantthis 2y ago
      Mandating something doesn’t make it free. You mandate plugin then you just mandated that all cars cost $5000 (at least) more plus you removed downward price pressure from nonplugins so they will cost even more. It’s an entire second drive train and fuel system. It’s going to cost money. I also forgot to add in the fact that you still have full ICE maintenance costs with a plugin.
      - AtlasBarfed 2y ago
Merad 2y ago
Yes, I think this has been a huge missed opportunity. Making hybrids the standard car is a big win for fuel efficiency. Then shifting towards plugin hybrids with a 40-50 mile EV range has the opportunity to radically reduce emissions without giving consumers any concerns about range anxiety. Do this shift over the course of a decade or two, use that time to build out charger infrastructure, _then_ start pushing towards pure EV's.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
dehrmann 2y ago
When I was shopping for a sedan in 2016, part of it was trunk space. You also pay more for a more complex drivetrain that has higher maintenance costs. I already shut off my car's feature to stop the engine at stop lights because I'd rather pay for gas than engine, starter, and battery wear.
- wffurr 2y ago
  The Prius is one of the most reliable vehicles ever made. I don't buy the "higher maintenance costs" argument.

SoftTalker 2y ago

Range anxiety with pure EVs is a real thing for many car buyers. Hybrids take that concern off the table.

millzy 2y ago
It shouldn't be. There should be more education about why EVs are the clear choice.
- atonse 2y ago
  Yeah but I think range anxiety is a great name because a lot of anxiety can't just be "explained" away. I've tried for years with certain friends. People don't like the _idea_ that they could one day be stranded without a nearby charger, or (even though this has literally never happened to me in 6 years), being _forced_ to wait 3 hours to charge your car. I think NACS will help with this since the Tesla Supercharger network is quite amazing in its coverage and speed of charging. So as other cars get access to it, it'll make owning an EV more palatable.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - WorldMaker 2y ago
    It's fun to remind people that "range anxiety" was a term in literature a century ago referring to how hard it was to find gasoline (in certain city Pharmacies with certain old fashioned medicines they made in house, in certain city Blacksmiths that used gasoline as a forge starter, and that was about it). Every person that has ever driven a car has some version or another of the range anxiety of making it to the next gas station or not knowing how long of a stretch it will be between gas stations on some interstate. The earliest versions of that were a lot worse when gas stations were a (full service) novelty. The fun part of the original uses of "range anxiety" was that it was also used in contrast to EVs at the time. You might not know where the next gas station might be, but electricity is easy to spot and you could charge an EV at any friendly house or business you stopped at with an exterior outlet to pick up a few miles to get back to where you needed to be. EVs were the cars where "fuel" was everywhere and plentiful and there were few worries about if you needed to make an extra stop somewhere that you could find a plug. At some point we're going to see things flip back to that. When gas gets expensive enough, when gas pumps start to close fast enough, when more people have practical experience with EVs and home charging and even Level 1 charging as cheap and ubiquitous (if not the best charging experience; this is where Edison bites us by pushing the main US electrical outlets to be half the voltage of other continents out of losing the AC/DC war) things will flip back to that original "range anxiety" perspective. Gas is the weird, flammable thing that should be hard to find. Electricity is almost "everywhere the (LED) light touches". But yes, "anxiety" isn't always rational and you can explain that to a lot of individuals, and they may get it rationally, but it will take a lot more momentum to sway the more emotional parts of their brain, especially those tuned to the zeitgeist and feeling a shared "cultural anxiety" here. (I also think NACS is going to help. It was dumb for us to have two competing plug standards for quite as long as we did. The latest model of the Hyundai Ioniq 5 is the first non-Tesla NACS "native" car available to purchase and early reviews are quite favorable about that.)

jgrahamc 2y ago

I bought a car back in 2003 and replaced it in 2020. I looked at a bunch of options in 2020 because I really wanted an electric vehicle and ultimately opted for a plug-in hybrid. Between the range and infrastructure a fully electric vehicle sounded like a pain to manage. Most of my driving is electric because it's around town, but I can go a long distance without any stress or delay. One day I hope I won't feel the need to burn fuel.

canadiantim 2y ago

Anyone have any idea of the batteries of hybrids vs full on EVs? Are they similar, the same?

toast0 2y ago
Depends on the car I'm sure. But hybrid batteries are much lower capacity, and there's a lot less pressure to optimize capacity. If your EV has a 200 mile range, and you can optimize the battery to get 10% more range, that's useful. If your PHEV has a 30 mile EV only range, 10% more doesn't do much unless that's what it takes to hit a regulatory target. For a non plug in hybrid, a 10% increase in capacity is even less noticable. I think you'll see more focus on density (space and charge) in EVs because of this; but as EVs commercialize denser batteries, may as well put those in hybrids if the cost or space savings are meaningful.
timbit42 2y ago
The battery in a HEV can only hold enough energy to go a few kms which results in about a 40% saving in fuel used in an ICEV. The battery in a PHEV can go typically 50 kms before it reverts to HEV mode. This can result in an 80% to 90% reduction in fuel usage, depending on how far you typically drive each day.
WorldMaker 2y ago
There's a massive weight trade-off. ICE engines are heavy, even when just used as an electrical generator. Carrying that weight means a lot less weight for batteries (and a lot less capacity). So generally at this point the battery chemistries are about the same, but there's a lot less battery in a hybrid.

fnordpiglet 2y ago

The whole argument of hybrid vs EV strikes me as very point in time despite the phrasing in the discussion as being some sort of pivotal deciding battle for all of history. The reality is ICE in general, hybrids doubly so, are extraordinarily complex machines with over 100 years of highly funded research invested. EVs are incredibly simple machines with a limited amount of research applied mostly by a few companies that are very young. The engineer in me sees the complexity argument as insurmountable. Over time ICE improvements will be flat as diminishing returns set in two decades or more ago. Their complexity isn’t going down, every improvement adds a more complex manufacturing process and complex machine - either in terms of materials or process. EVs are almost certainly on the other path where their machine becomes simpler in exchange for a more complex science, but the science is effectively the same science that yielded modern computers - solid state, in the end, in a manufacturing process that can scale absurdly. The machines if built with intention will effectively never break or need maintenance beyond a few simple parts. The disposable parts are 100% recyclable. As t->inf the age of fire is already over, and the age of maxwells equations is starting in earnest. As we put down our distilled flaming dinosaur juice and take up fundamental forces, these discussions will feel anachronistic rapidly. The infrastructure discussions are simply engineering and investment challenges, which will yield, as the complexity of the underlying machine has already doomed the ICE.

echelon 2y ago
I live in a cotton mill built in the 1800s. It's a historic property registered with my state, and we can't make many changes to it. Even the concrete pavement is designated as "historic" (everyone finds that ridiculous). Given these parameters, we've only managed to install two EV charging stations for well over a thousand residents. It's wholly inadequate for the 20+ Teslas we have on campus. The problem for me is that I have ADHD. It's extremely easy for me to forget things like removing my car from the loading zone, so there's no way in hell I'd be compatible with going in and out to constantly move my car around. I'd either never get my car charged, or I'd piss off everyone for leaving it parked in charging for days. Even if the governing body somehow relented and we could install dozens of charging points, it still wouldn't alleviate the problem for me. There's no way I could organize my life around the ceremony of charging. EVs just don't work for some people. The math might look right on paper, but the shape of reality has more dimensionality to it.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

jmugan 2y ago

Hybrids just seem like double the complexity. Maybe there are synergies that I don't know about. I wish we had higher gas taxes (we could lower other taxes to compensate).

timbit42 2y ago
The engine in a hybrid is simpler and more reliable because it is not directly connected to the wheels so there is less stress on it. The engines in Toyota's hybrids don't even have a starter because the CVT just spins the crank shaft and then they apply spark to the plugs. My Prius is 18 years old and the only thing I've had to do to the engine is change the oil every 10,000 kilometers. The electric side has even less complexity and higher reliability.
- tharmas 2y ago
  I think if they were going to "mandate" what kind of engine to use it should have been the hybrid. This would've given the necessary time to build up the support infrastructure necessary for electric only vehicles. Along with a hybrid mandate they could've included a charging infrastructure mandate.
toast0 2y ago
There's a fundamental synergy in that electric motors get less efficient as you go faster, and internal combustion engines have their most efficient output at significant RPMs. Using electric at low speeds and ICE at high speeds lets you use the two methods for what they're best at. The Toyota Synergy Drive design (used by many, but not all, hybrids) uses the two electric motor/generators to let the ICE run in its efficient RPM range at most speeds. There's probably more moving parts than a full EV, but it's probably less complex than a full ICE. You add one motor, but the transmission/transaxle is a whole lot simpler mechanically. And you have access to the liquid fuel network which is mature and ubiquitous. My PHEV has a two year service interval, so maintenance is not too bad. Ford had a bad batch of transmissions, and mine had to be replaced, but if they had manufactured it properly, it would have been bullet proof. The engine can be even more optimized for the efficient RPM bands it runs in, because the engine control system means it will only rarely run outside those bands.

WorldMaker 2y ago

The real headline seems to just be "Toyota and Honda still don't know how to sell EVs to Americans, have mostly sort of given up for now, and surprisingly aren't being punished in the market for it." > Hybrids are also sort of hurting EVs, aided by competitive pricing that is cannibalizing EV sales. Battery-powered cars and light trucks will account for just nine percent of industry deliveries in the U.S. this year. That’s down from the previous forecast of 12.4 percent. Ah, lies, damned lies, and then statistics. The industry forecast of 12.4% may have been too aggressive (which rectum did that number even come from, by the way? The manufacturers still haven't even committed to 12.4% growth on the supply side, they aren't making EVs that fast), but 9% is still a strong year-over-year growth and a faster growing rate than the hybrids mentioned in the article. The statistic here seems to be that Prius sales aren't shrinking. They aren't growing. They don't seem to be "hurting EVs" they seem to be continuing plain ICE sales. But it's not statistics is an easy math field or anything.

reallymental 2y ago

The main question is, how the hell did Toyota foresee this? They didn't go all gung-ho on the EV hype train and stuck to their word, even when the others rushed in headfirst. Is this "Hybrid Hype" a realization, or is it a knee-jerk reaction to China now gaining more ground on the EV vehicles + Elon's latest antics?

Ekaros 2y ago
To me the edge cases were always obvious. For city car something like plug-in Yaris will do the same job. But also manage to cover the trips on limit of range. That is two way trips. Going to somewhere and coming back without stopping, maybe 4 hour drive total on highway...
WorldMaker 2y ago
Toyota didn't foresee this, Toyota is still just riding the conservative strategy they've been following for 20+ years and the Prius as the hybrid that most matters to the US market. Also hybrids aren't really growing, it's mostly that EVs haven't yet dethroned the Prius, despite Toyota failing to properly invest in it and getting lost in the wilderness of Hydrogen for two decades. (Honda is the fun one mentioned in the article and is mostly playing catch-up to Toyota 20 years after having also wasted too much time on Hydrogen.)

ilamont 2y ago

The jaw-dropper in this story isn't hybrids, it's the section about hydrogen. Toyota is staying the course, now joined by BMW. The writer concludes: I really hope someone can figure out how to make hydrogen work on a consumer scale because it’s a really neat piece of technology that could make a big difference as we move further away from fossil fuels. Yes, hydrogen vehicles seem like a great idea in theory but practically speaking it's been a disaster. There's no mention of the dumpster fire in California, the only U.S. state where hydrogen has a foothold. From "Shell Closes Its Hydrogen Stations In California" this February: There are 54 publicly available hydrogen refueling stations in the Golden State, with a varying number of them regularly listed as “offline” at any given time. As of presstime, for instance, 19 of California’s stations were not open for business. Sometimes as many as half of them are unavailable. https://www.autoweek.com/news/a46791348/shell-closes-hydrogen-stations-california/ https://www.autoweek.com/news/a46791348/shell-closes-hydroge... I can't find the article now, but the LA Times or WSJ interviewed hydrogen car owners in California and getting towed seems to be a regular occurrence when refueling stations are out of order.

buzzert 2y ago
The Verge had a great YouTube video about this recently: https://youtu.be/Mc9XaeEyZ8M https://youtu.be/Mc9XaeEyZ8M

1970-01-01 2y ago

Prediction: In 2035, when used Teslas and other long-range EVs are going for ~$5k, these hybrids will be almost worthless.

timbit42 2y ago
If they are plug-in hybrids, they will still make great second vehicles for doing errands.

amluto 2y ago

I would love to see longer range PHEVs or series hybrids. Something that could go 50 miles on battery power and any distance on gas would capture most of the cost/greenhouse gas savings of electric and avoid any range / charging problems. At 40 cents/kWh at a level 3 charger, electric mode isn’t actually winning in cost vs an efficient hybrid using gasoline.

realo 2y ago

I live in a old building in a city with a lot of old buildings. People mostly park their cars in the streets , with a special zone permit. I would love to have an EV only car, but there is basically zero charging spot , public or otherwise, made available by the city in the streets (where we park our cars). As long as cities do not improve their urban environments with A LOT of charging stations everywhere, then pure EV is not practical.

fmajid 2y ago
I live in London. My local council (Camden) equipped every other lamp-post with a Siemens Ubitricity (now owned by Shell) EV charger 2 years ago. Problem solved.
- buzzert 2y ago
  But can the grid handle every lamp-post charging an EV at the same time?
- erik_seaberg 2y ago
  Does every street have lamp posts? Mine only has a few power poles because they didn't bury the lines to the houses.

songeater 2y ago

I would note that "hybrids" in China (where plug-in-hybrids have gone to 16% of market share, up 700bps y/y) is a fundamentally different architecture than hybrids in the west. In China (see Li Auto [1] for example) hybrids are Battery Electric vehicles (ie no gearbox, fully electric motor) with a small gasoline generator and tank to recharge the battery. This is "best of both worlds"... you get the electric motor, which is much more efficient / cheaper than an ICE transmission. Then the gasoline generator is just tuned to maximize efficiency (~44% efficiency to electric, vs the mid-30s on an ICE motor) so the net efficiency of the hybrid is far superior to a Prius-plug-in type structure. These are termed Electric Range Extender Vehicles ("EREV"s), which is type of a Plug-in Hybrid since you can charge by plugging in the battery or by filling in gas. Really surprised haven't seen these EREVs in the west, although Hyundai is supposed to launch in US in 2026. Could be game-changer when that happens... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Auto https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Auto

timbit42 2y ago
That's essentially what the Chevy Volt was, but when the engine kicks in, it isn't as efficient as a Toyota Prius.
- songeater 2y ago
  Yes! Difference is the current-gen EREVs are in a different league of performance with the advancement in electric powertrain and software. Think change between a Model 3 and a Chevy Bolt...
  - timbit42 2y ago
    Normally I would call both the Chevy Volt and Toyota Prius HEVs but if the Volt is an EREV, what is the Prius? Also, would you classify a Prius Prime an EREV?

hnburnsy 2y ago

Sorry but these articles praising hybrids never mention two important things... 1) Hybrid demand is partly driven by the manufactures who need to meet government fuel economy standards. 2) People don't plug in their hybrids, thus the vehicles are not actually meeting those standards in the real world... >The analysis of the new datasets presents strong evidence that real-world electric drive share is far below the utility factor label rating. Specifically, the analysis finds that real-world electric drive share may be 26%–56% lower and real-world fuel consumption may be 42%–67% higher than assumed within EPA’s labeling program for light duty vehicles. https://theicct.org/publication/real-world-phev-us-dec22/?utm_source=syndication https://theicct.org/publication/real-world-phev-us-dec22/?ut...

floxy 2y ago
>2) People don't plug in their hybrids Does anyone know why they don't? It seems strange to me that you would pay extra for a feature, and then not use it. But maybe these people are getting governmental subsidies that end up lowering the cost below the gas-only version of the same vehicle? So they never really had an intention to plug in to begin with?
- hnburnsy 2y ago
  Car manufactures wont say... >Plug-In Hybrids: Do They Get Plugged In? Even Carmakers Won't Say >Without data from carmakers showing drivers plug them in, plug-in hybrids may only be compliance cars that do little to cut emissions. https://insideevs.com/features/727919/phev-plugged-in-user-data https://insideevs.com/features/727919/phev-plugged-in-user-d...

while_true_ 2y ago

Four reasons I prefer my 100% EV over a hybrid: - EVs never need oil changes. Hybrids still do. - I really like charging up in the privacy of my own garage. Hybrids have to refuel at a gas station. - EVs have no cat converter to steal. Hybrids have that threat risk. - EVs don't have radiators, water pumps, or transmissions. Hybrids do, meaning more maintenance later.

1vuio0pswjnm7 2y ago

Here is another one from this website submitted by ChumpGPT that scared the HN Musk/Tesla fans. https://jalopnik.com/half-of-teslas-q2-profit-came-from-your-taxes-1851606200 https://jalopnik.com/half-of-teslas-q2-profit-came-from-your... People who are truly concerned about the environment walk, ride bikes and take public transort. Tesla owners on the other hand use the environment as a "justification" for purchasing a battery-powered computer on wheels that the owner cannot control whilst it performs surveillance and phones home to the mothership.

xela79 2y ago

Toyota not onboard for full EV? the same Toyota that was lobbying against full EV companies for years? the same Toyota that only has Hybrids and has invested all their R&D into Hydrogen? say it ain't so

albertopv 2y ago

It may be EV and infrastructure are just not really there. In Italy outside of cities you have to use a car, no questions. You take a state road or extra-urban and battery range easily drop to 250km at most. There are many charge stations, but often they don't work, or are placed far from needed. Here many have no way to charge at home. And EV prices are far higher than ICE ones, which are insane theirself.