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> Another way to look at it: Intel market cap is 83B, AMD's market cap is 228B. Do you think Intel is expected to make 1/3 of the money AMD is going to make in

> Another way to look at it: Intel market cap is 83B, AMD's market cap is 228B. Do you think Intel is expected to make 1/3 of the money AMD is going to make in coming decades? I see no reason to be as optimistic. Nit: market cap is not earnings. That's stock price * shares outstanding. This year's earnings looks like this: Intel, 3 months ended: Jun 29, 2024 > Net income (loss) (1,654) https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1704/intel-reports-second-quarter-2024-financial-results https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1704/... AMD, 3 months ended: June 29, 2024 > Net income (loss) $ 265 https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1209/amd-reports-second-quarter-2024-financial-results https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1209/am... So Intel lost 1654M and AMD earned 265M. This only makes your point stronger.

bluecalm 2y ago
Yeah but market cap is at least in theory about how much money a company is going to make in the future. Not this year, not the next year but decades is already pretty close (because of the discounting).
- valval 2y ago
  No it’s not. It has no theoretical relationship with future earnings at all, and even if it did, that theory would be silly.
Panzer04 2y ago
Intel's revenue is 54B to AMD 22B. If Intel's CPU division was spun off, I see little reason to believe AMD deserves a 3x premium to that - and you get IFS with Intel as well right now! Granted, IFS is the millstone hanging around their neck right now, unless they can fix it.
- bluecalm 2y ago
  Intel still has 75% of data center market share (for CPUs). I think this is mainly momentum and they will lose most of it in coming years.
  - yvdriess 2y ago
    To add to that, AMD's has the more lucrative higher-margin part of that market.
- eric-hu 2y ago
  Why focus on revenue instead of income? Regardless of what Intel’s revenue is, they’re losing money. AMD is earning.
  - valval 2y ago
    Losing money for one financial year is not a good enough indicator to draw conclusions.

bluecalm 2y ago

Yeah but market cap is at least in theory about how much money a company is going to make in the future. Not this year, not the next year but decades is already pretty close (because of the discounting).

valval 2y ago
No it’s not. It has no theoretical relationship with future earnings at all, and even if it did, that theory would be silly.

Panzer04 2y ago

Intel's revenue is 54B to AMD 22B. If Intel's CPU division was spun off, I see little reason to believe AMD deserves a 3x premium to that - and you get IFS with Intel as well right now! Granted, IFS is the millstone hanging around their neck right now, unless they can fix it.

bluecalm 2y ago
Intel still has 75% of data center market share (for CPUs). I think this is mainly momentum and they will lose most of it in coming years.
- yvdriess 2y ago
  To add to that, AMD's has the more lucrative higher-margin part of that market.
eric-hu 2y ago
Why focus on revenue instead of income? Regardless of what Intel’s revenue is, they’re losing money. AMD is earning.
- valval 2y ago
  Losing money for one financial year is not a good enough indicator to draw conclusions.