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They should be concerned; these kinds of issues have led to revolutions in the past. Canada is a prime example. We have huge amounts of available land, and 90%

They should be concerned; these kinds of issues have led to revolutions in the past. Canada is a prime example. We have huge amounts of available land, and 90% of that inputs to home construction are locally available. There is a huge labor pool, ready and willing and able to fuel new home construction, and a huge pool of available buyers. However, we are seeing what can only be described as a controlled demolition of the housing industry, due to absolutely hostile regulations and a justice system that seems bent on destroying small business, especially in the housing industry.

jmclnx 2y ago
>We have huge amounts of available land, and 90% of that inputs to home construction are locally available. There is a huge labor pool, ready and willing and able to fuel new home construction, and a huge pool of available buyer While true, we need housing were real work is. No one wants to buy a house in an area with only "McJOBS".
tharmas 2y ago
Canada? How much of that land is habitable? I'd argue USA has more habitable land. Huge problem with housing costs in the Anglosphere is housing is an investment asset not a place to live. REITs. Over the last 15 years, maybe more, a massive amount of money has been invested in housing for profit. Very little money has been invested in economic productivity such that the OECD says Canada's economic development will be DEAD LAST for the next 30 YEARS! Vancouver built tons of Condos but most only sold to overseas buyers. Locals didn't even get a chance. Those overseas buyers were mostly Chinese investors looking to park their money away from the hands of the Chinese govt and as an escape pad. Then there's "Mom n Pop" investors. Over 50% of Conservative Federal MPs are landlords. If you increase supply investors will just buy them up. There's nothing to stop them. (Yeah, Trudeau did introduce some tax and restrictions that will slow it down a little). Another problem, that CNBC covered recently and I'm sure it applies to Canada as well, is the number of Builders themselves have been getting more and more concentrated into fewer and fewer hands. These large Development Companies can sit on land to help force up the price of land for them to make a bigger profit margin. There isn't a huge pool of available buyers, at these prices, unless you're including investors. Most banks will not lend to ordinary people because of the cost of housing relative to income and interest rates. The mortgage climate has changed. And how many Builders can get financing to build? Except for the big players, who don't have a financial incentive to build like my in order to bring the price of housing down, no one can get financing. These are cautionary times. Then there is the threat of AI taking a lot of jobs. Are the banks going to be keen to lend out money to Builders and mortgage holders in these uncertain economic times. The only solution that I see working is the government building massive amounts of housing like they did after WW2. But that isn't going to happen for political reasons and financial (high govt debts already). If I was a young person I'd learn Spanish and move to Mexico. That's were the jobs will be. USA is replacing China with Mexico as their industrial hub. Don't know what the wages and working conditions would be like though. There's always the USA to consider as well but it has huge housing problems too (but does have more available cheaper markets compared to Canada). Canada is done. It's finished.
- pjkundert 2y ago
  With current Starlink + solar, Canada has so much arable, accessible land that it beggars the imagination — the entirety of Western Europe fits well within the western 4 provinces, below the arctic circle. This is livable, beautiful land. I’ve lived there for much of my life. As for investors buying up all supply? Unless the free market has ceased to function, supply will increase until the marginal cost equals the market-clearing price. There is essentially no supply available, and builders (I personally know several) are closing their businesses due to government malevolence, not the lack of buyers.
  - prewett 2y ago
    Since I have no insight into Canadian politics, what constitutes "government malevolence"? Onerous regulations that aren't workable for small businesses? Regulatory capture by large builders (aka "corruption")? Regulatory capture by activists whose goal is not build anything?

jmclnx 2y ago

>We have huge amounts of available land, and 90% of that inputs to home construction are locally available. There is a huge labor pool, ready and willing and able to fuel new home construction, and a huge pool of available buyer While true, we need housing were real work is. No one wants to buy a house in an area with only "McJOBS".

tharmas 2y ago

Canada? How much of that land is habitable? I'd argue USA has more habitable land. Huge problem with housing costs in the Anglosphere is housing is an investment asset not a place to live. REITs. Over the last 15 years, maybe more, a massive amount of money has been invested in housing for profit. Very little money has been invested in economic productivity such that the OECD says Canada's economic development will be DEAD LAST for the next 30 YEARS! Vancouver built tons of Condos but most only sold to overseas buyers. Locals didn't even get a chance. Those overseas buyers were mostly Chinese investors looking to park their money away from the hands of the Chinese govt and as an escape pad. Then there's "Mom n Pop" investors. Over 50% of Conservative Federal MPs are landlords. If you increase supply investors will just buy them up. There's nothing to stop them. (Yeah, Trudeau did introduce some tax and restrictions that will slow it down a little). Another problem, that CNBC covered recently and I'm sure it applies to Canada as well, is the number of Builders themselves have been getting more and more concentrated into fewer and fewer hands. These large Development Companies can sit on land to help force up the price of land for them to make a bigger profit margin. There isn't a huge pool of available buyers, at these prices, unless you're including investors. Most banks will not lend to ordinary people because of the cost of housing relative to income and interest rates. The mortgage climate has changed. And how many Builders can get financing to build? Except for the big players, who don't have a financial incentive to build like my in order to bring the price of housing down, no one can get financing. These are cautionary times. Then there is the threat of AI taking a lot of jobs. Are the banks going to be keen to lend out money to Builders and mortgage holders in these uncertain economic times. The only solution that I see working is the government building massive amounts of housing like they did after WW2. But that isn't going to happen for political reasons and financial (high govt debts already). If I was a young person I'd learn Spanish and move to Mexico. That's were the jobs will be. USA is replacing China with Mexico as their industrial hub. Don't know what the wages and working conditions would be like though. There's always the USA to consider as well but it has huge housing problems too (but does have more available cheaper markets compared to Canada). Canada is done. It's finished.

pjkundert 2y ago
With current Starlink + solar, Canada has so much arable, accessible land that it beggars the imagination — the entirety of Western Europe fits well within the western 4 provinces, below the arctic circle. This is livable, beautiful land. I’ve lived there for much of my life. As for investors buying up all supply? Unless the free market has ceased to function, supply will increase until the marginal cost equals the market-clearing price. There is essentially no supply available, and builders (I personally know several) are closing their businesses due to government malevolence, not the lack of buyers.
- prewett 2y ago
  Since I have no insight into Canadian politics, what constitutes "government malevolence"? Onerous regulations that aren't workable for small businesses? Regulatory capture by large builders (aka "corruption")? Regulatory capture by activists whose goal is not build anything?