5 ms·

SMIC has been forced to focus only on DUV technolog, and take that as far as it can go. That’s not bad for the short term. DUV is actually just as good if not b

by audunw 2y ago

SMIC has been forced to focus only on DUV technolog, and take that as far as it can go. That’s not bad for the short term. DUV is actually just as good if not better than EUV for the nodes they’re working on. TSMC is putting a lot of their R&D into next generation technologies like EUV, backside power, advanced packaging/chiplet stuff, glass substrates etc I’m not sure SMIC will be able to keep up when these efforts bear fruit. Eventually they’ll need EUV to unlock further progress. SMIC has been able to poach talent by throwing mountains of money at them. This might not be possible going forward. Not being able to work on EUV could be career suicide, and I’m not so sure China can be so frivolous with their money anymore. They have to start raising taxes to compensate for the loss of land lease revenue.

ziddoap 2y ago
For those like me who don't know these acronyms: DUV = Deep Ultraviolet EUV = Extreme Ultraviolet And they are different methods of lithography. To quote a random site that I googled while looking for the acronyms: >Think of EUV as a precision scalpel, capable of carving out the finest details, while DUV is more like a skilled artist's brush – versatile and reliable, but with limitations when it comes to the tiniest features.
- klyrs 2y ago
  More precisely, DUV has about 10x shorter wavelength than EUV -- where wavelength directly corresponds to minimum feature size.
  - mlyle 2y ago
    > More precisely, DUV has about 10x shorter wavelength than EUV Other way around, though 10x shorter is confusing; I suggest saying EUV has a wavelength that's about 1/10th of DUV.
- chasil 2y ago
  The current technology to generate extreme ultraviolet involves a container of molten/liquid tin that is released drop by drop; these are vaporized by a laser. The equipment for this is sold by one vendor, ASML (a company in the Netherlands). It is extremely expensive. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_ultraviolet_lithography https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_ultraviolet_lithogra... A Japanese advance was reported on HN recently that could simplify EUV. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41336690 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41336690
  - alexpetralia 2y ago
    If you want to learn more about this amazing process, I recommend "Material World" by Ed Conway!
    - chasil 2y ago
      I just found this one. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=h_zgURwr6nA https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=h_zgURwr6nA Edit: I didn't realize that the droplets are hit twice by different lasers. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ge2RcvDlgw https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ge2RcvDlgw
geysersam 2y ago
China has taken large strides in every advanced manufacturing process. Made in China used to indicate low quality but that's far far from the current situation. I just don't see why they wouldn't eventually be able to dominate high end chip production, just like they've catched up in other areas where people said they won't be able to compete. The sanctions might delay this for a couple of years, but it seems rather futile to think it can be delayed more than that. In my opinion it's a bad look on the US part to try to deny a hard working people access to tools to develop technology and produce wealth.
- karlgkk 2y ago
  > I just don't see why they wouldn't eventually be able to dominate high end chip production. Tbh the comment you’re responding to lays it out pretty well. The next step is a MASSIVE step. Tbh for most consumer and military applications, it’s fine. For margin sensitive stuff, not so much.
  - monocasa 2y ago
    Consumer stuff is some of the most margin sensitive out there.
    - karlgkk 2y ago
      Yes, that is the point. For non-consumer stuff, it doesn't matter as much.
- re-thc 2y ago
  > China has taken large strides in every advanced manufacturing process. No they haven't, as in foreign companies in China have and invested in that. Not China itself. This is the big difference. So who is building these advanced manufacturing processes for them? > I just don't see why they wouldn't eventually be able to dominate high end chip production They've never bothered to. There's been huge corruption, lots of mismanagement, etc. Imagine a worse Intel. > hard working people access to tools to develop technology and produce wealth. Who says they're hard working? At least not in this sector. China has had plenty of time and resources before the sanctions and they've wasted it. They spent a staggering amount of $$$ (huge government investments), poached infinite amounts of talent and floundered it all already. Who says this will change?
re-thc 2y ago
> I’m not sure SMIC will be able to keep up when these efforts bear fruit. Eventually they’ll need EUV to unlock further progress. The issue with SMIC and fabs in China in general was never the technology. If only the technology ban was the real problem. I mean there were ASML EUV setups sitting there for years doing nothing... > SMIC has been able to poach talent by throwing mountains of money at them. This might not be possible going forward. That wasn't exactly the tactic and with the comparatively low wages in South Korea and Taiwan, it'd still likely be doable. It's not like they poach everyone - just a few key figures.
tivert 2y ago
> SMIC has been able to poach talent by throwing mountains of money at them. This might not be possible going forward. Not being able to work on EUV could be career suicide, and I’m not so sure China can be so frivolous with their money anymore. They have to start raising taxes to compensate for the loss of land lease revenue. I would be extremely surprised if China wasn't throwing mountains of money at building their own EUV lithography machine so they could totally cut out ASML. I would also be extremely surprised if such a project wasn't top priority for them, and would be one of the last things to be cut "to compensate for the loss of land lease revenue." I mean, this is what it took ASML to get there (https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/04/01/1090393/how-asml-took-over-the-chipmaking-chessboard/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/04/01/1090393/how-asml...): > Yet in 2017, after an investment of $6.5 billion in R&D over 17 years, ASML’s bet began to pay off. Assuming China's starting from square one, takes the same amount of time and money to develop EUV, and the government pays 100% of the cost, it looks like the yearly cost (382 million) would amount to about 2/3 of their current green energy subsidies ($607 million in 2022 https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-sets-2022-renewable-power-subsidy-607-mln-2021-11-16/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-sets-2022-rene...)
nothercastle 2y ago
I’m sure they will throw tons of money at this. Failure to be able to make chips is national suicide for a major world power.
- pragmomm 2y ago
  China is really really broke, from central government, to local government, to enterprise, to individuals. from 11 trillion off the book debts for local governments, to record number of Chinese blacklisted for debt defaults. from 7 trillion lost in stock market value in 3 years, to close to 20 trillion wealth wiped out in real estate.
  - XorNot 2y ago
    Authoritarian accounting follows the mafia gamblers playbook: make big bets and threaten anyone who tries to collect on the losses.
  - nothercastle 2y ago
    Entities in the government are broke so there will need to be a clearing event. What better way to restructure debt than a war? China is extremely rich in mid grade mfg capabilities, and would be able to create a large quantity of good enough weapons to successfully execute such an endeavor.
    - pragmomm 2y ago
      China's debt is mostly internal, not external. It doesn't need a war to restructure debt. However, it does need to pay out an increasing amount of social pensions to its aging population, maintain its increasingly expensive and decreasingly utilized rail infrastructure, fund its growing state enterprises, and maintain its increasing military endeavors, etc. In other words, China's debt is owed to the citizens, but it now lacks the ability to pay them due to collapsing revenue from real estate. It could try to print massively, but then its cash will be toilet paper, and for a country that mainly imports its resources, that would be devastating. So right now it's just printing quietly and in small doses. War would make yuan worthless overnight.

by audunw 2y ago

ziddoap 2y ago

For those like me who don't know these acronyms: DUV = Deep Ultraviolet EUV = Extreme Ultraviolet And they are different methods of lithography. To quote a random site that I googled while looking for the acronyms: >Think of EUV as a precision scalpel, capable of carving out the finest details, while DUV is more like a skilled artist's brush – versatile and reliable, but with limitations when it comes to the tiniest features.

klyrs 2y ago
More precisely, DUV has about 10x shorter wavelength than EUV -- where wavelength directly corresponds to minimum feature size.
- mlyle 2y ago
  > More precisely, DUV has about 10x shorter wavelength than EUV Other way around, though 10x shorter is confusing; I suggest saying EUV has a wavelength that's about 1/10th of DUV.
chasil 2y ago
The current technology to generate extreme ultraviolet involves a container of molten/liquid tin that is released drop by drop; these are vaporized by a laser. The equipment for this is sold by one vendor, ASML (a company in the Netherlands). It is extremely expensive. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_ultraviolet_lithography https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_ultraviolet_lithogra... A Japanese advance was reported on HN recently that could simplify EUV. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41336690 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41336690
- alexpetralia 2y ago
  If you want to learn more about this amazing process, I recommend "Material World" by Ed Conway!
  - chasil 2y ago
    I just found this one. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=h_zgURwr6nA https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=h_zgURwr6nA Edit: I didn't realize that the droplets are hit twice by different lasers. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ge2RcvDlgw https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ge2RcvDlgw

geysersam 2y ago

China has taken large strides in every advanced manufacturing process. Made in China used to indicate low quality but that's far far from the current situation. I just don't see why they wouldn't eventually be able to dominate high end chip production, just like they've catched up in other areas where people said they won't be able to compete. The sanctions might delay this for a couple of years, but it seems rather futile to think it can be delayed more than that. In my opinion it's a bad look on the US part to try to deny a hard working people access to tools to develop technology and produce wealth.

karlgkk 2y ago
> I just don't see why they wouldn't eventually be able to dominate high end chip production. Tbh the comment you’re responding to lays it out pretty well. The next step is a MASSIVE step. Tbh for most consumer and military applications, it’s fine. For margin sensitive stuff, not so much.
- monocasa 2y ago
  Consumer stuff is some of the most margin sensitive out there.
  - karlgkk 2y ago
    Yes, that is the point. For non-consumer stuff, it doesn't matter as much.
re-thc 2y ago
> China has taken large strides in every advanced manufacturing process. No they haven't, as in foreign companies in China have and invested in that. Not China itself. This is the big difference. So who is building these advanced manufacturing processes for them? > I just don't see why they wouldn't eventually be able to dominate high end chip production They've never bothered to. There's been huge corruption, lots of mismanagement, etc. Imagine a worse Intel. > hard working people access to tools to develop technology and produce wealth. Who says they're hard working? At least not in this sector. China has had plenty of time and resources before the sanctions and they've wasted it. They spent a staggering amount of $$$ (huge government investments), poached infinite amounts of talent and floundered it all already. Who says this will change?

re-thc 2y ago

> I’m not sure SMIC will be able to keep up when these efforts bear fruit. Eventually they’ll need EUV to unlock further progress. The issue with SMIC and fabs in China in general was never the technology. If only the technology ban was the real problem. I mean there were ASML EUV setups sitting there for years doing nothing... > SMIC has been able to poach talent by throwing mountains of money at them. This might not be possible going forward. That wasn't exactly the tactic and with the comparatively low wages in South Korea and Taiwan, it'd still likely be doable. It's not like they poach everyone - just a few key figures.

tivert 2y ago

> SMIC has been able to poach talent by throwing mountains of money at them. This might not be possible going forward. Not being able to work on EUV could be career suicide, and I’m not so sure China can be so frivolous with their money anymore. They have to start raising taxes to compensate for the loss of land lease revenue. I would be extremely surprised if China wasn't throwing mountains of money at building their own EUV lithography machine so they could totally cut out ASML. I would also be extremely surprised if such a project wasn't top priority for them, and would be one of the last things to be cut "to compensate for the loss of land lease revenue." I mean, this is what it took ASML to get there (https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/04/01/1090393/how-asml-took-over-the-chipmaking-chessboard/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/04/01/1090393/how-asml...): > Yet in 2017, after an investment of $6.5 billion in R&D over 17 years, ASML’s bet began to pay off. Assuming China's starting from square one, takes the same amount of time and money to develop EUV, and the government pays 100% of the cost, it looks like the yearly cost (382 million) would amount to about 2/3 of their current green energy subsidies ($607 million in 2022 https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-sets-2022-renewable-power-subsidy-607-mln-2021-11-16/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-sets-2022-rene...)

nothercastle 2y ago

I’m sure they will throw tons of money at this. Failure to be able to make chips is national suicide for a major world power.

pragmomm 2y ago
China is really really broke, from central government, to local government, to enterprise, to individuals. from 11 trillion off the book debts for local governments, to record number of Chinese blacklisted for debt defaults. from 7 trillion lost in stock market value in 3 years, to close to 20 trillion wealth wiped out in real estate.
- XorNot 2y ago
  Authoritarian accounting follows the mafia gamblers playbook: make big bets and threaten anyone who tries to collect on the losses.
- nothercastle 2y ago
  Entities in the government are broke so there will need to be a clearing event. What better way to restructure debt than a war? China is extremely rich in mid grade mfg capabilities, and would be able to create a large quantity of good enough weapons to successfully execute such an endeavor.
  - pragmomm 2y ago
    China's debt is mostly internal, not external. It doesn't need a war to restructure debt. However, it does need to pay out an increasing amount of social pensions to its aging population, maintain its increasingly expensive and decreasingly utilized rail infrastructure, fund its growing state enterprises, and maintain its increasing military endeavors, etc. In other words, China's debt is owed to the citizens, but it now lacks the ability to pay them due to collapsing revenue from real estate. It could try to print massively, but then its cash will be toilet paper, and for a country that mainly imports its resources, that would be devastating. So right now it's just printing quietly and in small doses. War would make yuan worthless overnight.