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Doing some rough numbers: There are ~2400 NFL players in the US, which means about 1 in 140k people. If you figure that 10% of the people care enough about fo

Doing some rough numbers: There are ~2400 NFL players in the US, which means about 1 in 140k people. If you figure that 10% of the people care enough about football to make an attempt, then someone who is in the 99th percentile of that group of people--someone I think many people would call undeniably good at the game, then they still have to be at least 99th percentile among those people to actually have a go of making it as a career.

Retric 2y ago
You’re off by an order of magnitude. There’s ~165 million males in the US, but many ex professional football players still alive and some kids who will eventually become football players. I doubt 10% of boys try out for high school or college football, but let’s say 10% make even some vague attempt. Many people play professionally for a very short period, but arbitrarily suppose 1/7th of men are in the age range to play professionally. 165,000,000 / 2400 / 7 / 10 … So something like 1 out of 1,000 guys who make even a vague attempt end up in the NFL. More realistically I doubt even 1% of boys ever approached football with serious intentions. Still horrible odds, except there’s a lot more athletic scholarships than openings in the NFL.
- joe_the_user 2y ago
  No, your math is cockeyed and the parent is much closer. "Roughly speaking, there were 1,083,308 high school football players competing, and eventually 251 made it to pro. After simple calculation, we can get that the percentage of student-athletes going pro is approximately 0.023%." https://u.osu.edu/groupbetaengr2367/junran-add-things-here-for-real/ https://u.osu.edu/groupbetaengr2367/junran-add-things-here-f...
  - hooloovoo_zoo 2y ago
    That 1M is a 4 year rate and the 250 is a 1 year rate. Additionally you don’t have to be drafted to play in the NFL. So it’s about 5x that.
  - Retric 2y ago
    High school lasts 4 years. Some people play for all 4 years but if the average is 2 years you’re looking at 0.5 million people playing for the first time each year. Most players aren’t drafted. The average NFL career lasts 3.3 years. 2400 / 3.3 = 727 new players per year. 500,000 / 727 would be 1 in 687 or 0.15%.

Retric 2y ago

You’re off by an order of magnitude. There’s ~165 million males in the US, but many ex professional football players still alive and some kids who will eventually become football players. I doubt 10% of boys try out for high school or college football, but let’s say 10% make even some vague attempt. Many people play professionally for a very short period, but arbitrarily suppose 1/7th of men are in the age range to play professionally. 165,000,000 / 2400 / 7 / 10 … So something like 1 out of 1,000 guys who make even a vague attempt end up in the NFL. More realistically I doubt even 1% of boys ever approached football with serious intentions. Still horrible odds, except there’s a lot more athletic scholarships than openings in the NFL.

joe_the_user 2y ago
No, your math is cockeyed and the parent is much closer. "Roughly speaking, there were 1,083,308 high school football players competing, and eventually 251 made it to pro. After simple calculation, we can get that the percentage of student-athletes going pro is approximately 0.023%." https://u.osu.edu/groupbetaengr2367/junran-add-things-here-for-real/ https://u.osu.edu/groupbetaengr2367/junran-add-things-here-f...
- hooloovoo_zoo 2y ago
  That 1M is a 4 year rate and the 250 is a 1 year rate. Additionally you don’t have to be drafted to play in the NFL. So it’s about 5x that.
- Retric 2y ago
  High school lasts 4 years. Some people play for all 4 years but if the average is 2 years you’re looking at 0.5 million people playing for the first time each year. Most players aren’t drafted. The average NFL career lasts 3.3 years. 2400 / 3.3 = 727 new players per year. 500,000 / 727 would be 1 in 687 or 0.15%.