3 ms·

> is a nonstarter for probably most of the US population. I disagree. I grew up in Rural Australia, lived in the Yukon and have driven to many of the world's

by grecy 2y ago

> is a nonstarter for probably most of the US population. I disagree. I grew up in Rural Australia, lived in the Yukon and have driven to many of the world's most remote and undeveloped countries. You are saying "Self driving cars will NEVER work in <this specific case>" When what you mean to say is "Self driving cars will first work in the easy cases, and then years later will work in more and more cases until they eventually work everywhere." FWIW, people said exactly the same thing when the automobile came around and horses were the best transport. Of course automobiles didn't work well in places with no gas stations or very nasty horse tracks for many years. But the years will always roll on, and things will change.

chias 2y ago
While self driving cars are provided by private companies, self driving cars will first work in the profitable cases, and then years later will still only work in the profitable cases.
- grecy 2y ago
  The Model 3 and Model Y will eventually be self driving... any anyone that wants to can simply buy one. Obviously many other manufacturers will also sell consumer cars that can completely drive themselves. Even a person who lives in Tok, Alaska will just be able to buy one and then sleep in the car as it drives down the Alaska Highway* * Trust me, once you've driven it a handful of times it's a chore.
  - dageshi 2y ago
    Having given this some thought recently, I don't actually think anyone will sell self driving cars for a long time, if ever. I don't think there will be a big bang moment where self driving is suddenly here and it works everywhere. Instead I think it looks like what waymo is doing now, self driving taxi services that expand to cover specific regions and then expand more as they begin to handle more edge cases and more extreme weather. By the time self driving is actually to the standard needed to sell it with a car a younger generation will probably have grown up using self driving taxi's and wonder what they need to own a car for.
- seanmcdirmid 2y ago
  With scale and time, the tech gets cheaper and the number profitable cases continues to increase. As long as it isn’t human labor intensive (and it’s not), they can expand profitable territory almost indefinitely.
- berdario 2y ago
  As long as the expensive bits continue to be externalized (i.e. publicly funded), I think that there might not be any cases that aren't profitable. The expensive bits being: - road maintenance - theft and vandalism policing Surely, once Waymo covers most cities, the marginal cost of getting one extra waymo car on the road should be substantially lower than a Bus (and maybe even a Marshrutka?) ...And then, once you have the cars on the road, to avoid increasing waiting times too much (which will lead users to prefer alternative transport methods, walking, cycling, etc.) you need to have slack/extra-capacity in any area that you're serving. This means that I don't see why Waymo might not expand even in remote mountain towns: they are not going to have a massive fleet, but keeping one or two cars there shouldn't have a different overhead than for a Waymo car serving a city. (the only caveat might be in making sure that the overnight depot/parking lot won't be too far from the area served). I think that would be pretty cool, if it means that people won't have to drive themselves anymore... but I'm also quite concerned about the consequences this might have for public transport: if its usage numbers falls, and thus public investments in it stops, entire small town might end up depending on extremely few (one?) self-driving taxi providers.
hn_throwaway_99 2y ago
I don't think I really disagree with you, but I think the economic models and tech that would be required for people in more remote areas (in the US at least) to solely rely on 3rd parties for transportation is so far in the future that it's basically unknowable from our current position. That is, for many areas, I don't think it's just a case of the tech improving bit-by-bit and taking over more and more areas. I think that will happen in some ways, but take for example a friend of mine who lives in Pennsylvania. Where he lives is a far-out suburb, but he often drives out to rural areas on the weekend to go camping, or he drives long distances to various client sites. Forget the tech, I just don't see how an economic model of a self-driving car company would make these kinds of trips feasible anytime in the foreseeable future.

by grecy 2y ago

chias 2y ago

While self driving cars are provided by private companies, self driving cars will first work in the profitable cases, and then years later will still only work in the profitable cases.

grecy 2y ago
The Model 3 and Model Y will eventually be self driving... any anyone that wants to can simply buy one. Obviously many other manufacturers will also sell consumer cars that can completely drive themselves. Even a person who lives in Tok, Alaska will just be able to buy one and then sleep in the car as it drives down the Alaska Highway* * Trust me, once you've driven it a handful of times it's a chore.
- dageshi 2y ago
  Having given this some thought recently, I don't actually think anyone will sell self driving cars for a long time, if ever. I don't think there will be a big bang moment where self driving is suddenly here and it works everywhere. Instead I think it looks like what waymo is doing now, self driving taxi services that expand to cover specific regions and then expand more as they begin to handle more edge cases and more extreme weather. By the time self driving is actually to the standard needed to sell it with a car a younger generation will probably have grown up using self driving taxi's and wonder what they need to own a car for.
seanmcdirmid 2y ago
With scale and time, the tech gets cheaper and the number profitable cases continues to increase. As long as it isn’t human labor intensive (and it’s not), they can expand profitable territory almost indefinitely.
berdario 2y ago
As long as the expensive bits continue to be externalized (i.e. publicly funded), I think that there might not be any cases that aren't profitable. The expensive bits being: - road maintenance - theft and vandalism policing Surely, once Waymo covers most cities, the marginal cost of getting one extra waymo car on the road should be substantially lower than a Bus (and maybe even a Marshrutka?) ...And then, once you have the cars on the road, to avoid increasing waiting times too much (which will lead users to prefer alternative transport methods, walking, cycling, etc.) you need to have slack/extra-capacity in any area that you're serving. This means that I don't see why Waymo might not expand even in remote mountain towns: they are not going to have a massive fleet, but keeping one or two cars there shouldn't have a different overhead than for a Waymo car serving a city. (the only caveat might be in making sure that the overnight depot/parking lot won't be too far from the area served). I think that would be pretty cool, if it means that people won't have to drive themselves anymore... but I'm also quite concerned about the consequences this might have for public transport: if its usage numbers falls, and thus public investments in it stops, entire small town might end up depending on extremely few (one?) self-driving taxi providers.

hn_throwaway_99 2y ago

I don't think I really disagree with you, but I think the economic models and tech that would be required for people in more remote areas (in the US at least) to solely rely on 3rd parties for transportation is so far in the future that it's basically unknowable from our current position. That is, for many areas, I don't think it's just a case of the tech improving bit-by-bit and taking over more and more areas. I think that will happen in some ways, but take for example a friend of mine who lives in Pennsylvania. Where he lives is a far-out suburb, but he often drives out to rural areas on the weekend to go camping, or he drives long distances to various client sites. Forget the tech, I just don't see how an economic model of a self-driving car company would make these kinds of trips feasible anytime in the foreseeable future.