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OpenAI shows 'Strawberry' to feds, races to launch it
- seydor 2y agoI m not holding my breath for it. It will be good at solving "complex" high-school problems but nothing more. OpenAI has a history of overhyped launches now. Trying to keep those investors to their toes. If I 'm wrong, i dare openAI to release it early
- TacticalCoder 2y ago"They showed it to the feds" means "Competition has more than caught up and is beating us, so we'll now sell to the most clueless buyer: one that has unlimited budget".
- trashtester 2y agoWhen General Paul M. Nakasone, who until just recently was near the top of the chain for Cyber Command in the US Armed Forces, joined the OpenAI board, it could be seen in multiple ways. My take is that this wasn't something OpenAI did as a PR stunt, but rather that the military started seeing this tech as being critical to national security, and basically forced OpenAI to take him on the board. That's not necessarily good for stock prices. If AI beyond some capability are labelled as strategic military assets, then the Nvidia export restrictions may end up a pale foreshadowing of what AI companies could be facing soon.
- hgwallc 2y agoCompare to the Microsoft HoloLens project, which peddles VR goggles to the U.S. Army: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/31/microsoft-wins-contract-to-make-modified-hololens-for-us-army.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/31/microsoft-wins-contract-to-m... I am sure it will be a raging success among the troops on the ground.
- lnenad 2y agoWhat percentage of work being done daily requires solving harder than "high-school" problems? Single digits? Low double digits? If it actually becomes capable of doing this we might move on into it actually being deployable to real world jobs.
- logicallee 2y agoIt is already being deployed to real-world jobs.
- lnenad 2y agoLet me rephrase, to a *much* higher percentage of real-world jobs that require solving harder than "high-school" problems. Right now the lack of real determinism and trust means that you can't really leave it unsupervised 100% of the time.
- trashtester 2y agoThe newest models are solving some of the hardest Math Olympiad problems [1]. This is in the top 1% of the top 1% math students out of high school. The math performance, even for VERY hard problems, is already getting extremely good and progress is still high year-on-year. What OpenAI (and everyone else, less publicly) seem to be doing, is to integrate these kinds of abilities into multi-modal models. https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/ai-solves-imo-problems-at-silver-medal-level/ https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/ai-solves-imo-problems...
- imtringued 2y agoYeah sure, but AlphaProof is "cheating", because they are using an external system to do the hard work and the LLM is just there for translation and semantic information retrieval. As impressive as it is, it makes LLMs look like they are just a fancy UI. Like, you can tell the computer to press the upvote button in English using your voice instead of using your mouse. It's the same with AlphaProof. The LLM is just taking a problem specification in natural language and then acting as the UI of the theorem prover. The moment you talk about using LLMs to solve decidable problems, people whip you with the idea that you should let the LLM generate python code. Aka, the LLM is just a fancy UI for specifying python programs in English. Cool, but also somewhat hollow. It's no different than having a translator from one language to another.
- aithrowaway1987 2y agoIt seems misleading to lump AlphaGeometry in with this: that system works by having an LLM generate hundreds of Lean programs and trying to find the one that works. Frankly the project is pointless and borderline dishonest: it is a hideously expensive way to solve useless Olympiad problems, but it won't work at all for actual mathematical research since we wouldn't have nearly enough training data. It does not represent even the slightest advancement at AI performing mathematics, it's pure gimmickry. I suspect the entire point of AlphaGeometry is to generate comments like yours, "AI is now an Olympian-level mathematician." The real AI math advancement will be a computer which is as smart as a pigeon and innately understands what a number is, which means it is able to solve simple counting problems without training. AlphaGeometry or Strawberry aren't even close to that, and I suspect none of us will live to see such a sophisticated AI.
- thesz 2y ago> Its main purpose is to produce synthetic data for Orion, their next big LLM https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.03502 https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.03502 "This is generally useful, but widespread reliance on recursive AI systems could lead to a process we define as "knowledge collapse", and argue this could harm innovation and the richness of human understanding and culture... In our default model, a 20% discount on AI-generated content generates public beliefs 2.3 times further from the truth than when there is no discount."
- audessuscest 2y agoIf it's proven to be a real issue, we might expect to see models trained on a lot of synthetic data with less knowledge but highly capable to reason, and other models less capable to reason but with large knowledge.
- JumpCrisscross 2y agoHaving one inscrutable AI train another should just thrill the safetyists.
- xg15 2y agoWasn't aware this has already become an -ism...
- trashtester 2y agoAka "doomers".
- aucisson_masque 2y agoyeah, i'm by no mean an llm engineer but even with the basic knowledge on how it works, i can understand how it's a bad idea to feed a LLM with the data from another LLM. Yeah, you are probably going to sanitize it and it will have less hallucinations but in the same time it's scope will be much more limited. for instance, they speak about product marketing strategies. it requires creativity, which ai is not capable but currently it can still borrow human creativity. With llm data fed to another llm, it's going to be diluted even more and what will be left is extremely standard and common knowledge. Tho it could be interesting for corporation running chatbot, but even here there is always the tiny risk it hallucinates and screw the company big time, which is a deal breaker. No i don't see the benefit.
- lm28469 2y ago> Unnamed source says "They showed it to feds" I can't think of a more vague way to bring this up
- seydor 2y agowas it jimmy apples? suzie oranges? or iruletheworld?
- trashtester 2y agoIn 1939 Einstein sent a letter to Roosevelt, warning him that if Germany were to be able to build a nuke before the US, the consequences would be catastrophic. We're in a similar situation now, it seems. And the veil of secrecy, similar to that around the Manhattan Project, is about to be raised. And what comes out of it may turn out to be way more scary than Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
- GardenLetter27 2y agoAdvanced predictive text is in no way comparable to Nagasaki. Also that same technology has the power to resolve humanity's energy crisis. Let's see what great things peaceful AI will bring.
- skywhopper 2y agoDo you seriously believe this? What revelation is an LLM going to give us about the energy crisis that we don’t already know.
- GardenLetter27 2y agoI meant nuclear power did. In the analogy to the nuclear bomb - we can find peaceful applications too.
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- skywhopper 2y agoLots of red flags here. Besides synthetic training data (huge red flag), this new model is going to somehow generate “correct” (red flag) training data. Also, this new model will be much more expensive to run (red flag), so they are distilling it (back down to lower quality — red flag) and need to figure out how to make it work in ChatGPT (not ready for release — red flag), and the true impact of it anyway is for the next generation (huge red flag) model. We’re in a constant cycle of “sure the current stuff doesn’t live up to the hype but the next release that’s just on the horizon, that one will blow you away!” This leak is clearly targeted at creating the buzz necessary to raise the money to keep the pipe dream flowing for the time being. But just thinking through the steps outlined here, it should be clear none of this makes sense. Any “correct” synthetic training data is either going to be badly biased, or be limited to such banal “logical” output that the model it trains will be entirely unable to process natural language input and you’ll need to specify your questions in something more precise. At which point, we’re back to traditional programming languages, only with several layers of unnecessary and expensive processing going on in between.
- ben_w 2y agoNone of those things are red flags? > Any “correct” synthetic training data is either going to be badly biased, or be limited to such banal “logical” output that the model it trains will be entirely unable to process natural language input and you’ll need to specify your questions in something more precise. At which point, we’re back to traditional programming languages, only with several layers of unnecessary and expensive processing going on in between. If it had that problem, existing models wouldn't have been able to learn how to code at the same time as understanding naural language. At they limited? Sure. But not in the way you're saying here.
- imtringued 2y agoWhat they are trying to do is use an expensive inference strategy that results in better performance than standard inference and then try to create a model that performs like the expensive inference strategy "out of the factory" so to speak. I doubt that it will result in a huge performance increase, but it might be just enough to stay ahead of the competition.
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- nuz 2y agoOpenAI are so good at fake leaking things to build hype
- hdjjhhvvhga 2y agoGPT-3 was released in 2020. GPT-3.5 in late 2022. GPT-4 in early 2023, and that's basically it for me. Granted, they introduced the 4o model later that has some nice features while being quite well behind their top model (now called by them "legacy"). In the meantime, Claude 3.5 became dangerously close while having a much better context window than what AI offers. So since March 2023 we haven't seen any increase in quality on their part. They need to "leak" things to keep market interest in them.
- trashtester 2y ago4o is doing quite well in the benchmarks, especially after the latest updates. In my experience (and in the benchmarks), gpt-4o is now way ahead of the older gpt-4 for most uses.
- qwertox 2y agoIn my experience, GPT-4o is noticeably worse than GPT-4, to a degree where it is already frustrating. The only benefit is that it is faster.
- user432678 2y agoAnd remember how a lot of people not even related to the field were predicting ChatGPT 16 by this time a year ago?
- ben_w 2y agoNever heard of that, the closest I did see was a meme of: GPT-3.5: *small circle* 175 billion parameters GPT-4: *huge circle* 175 trillion parameters (I think the second number was constantly being increased with each day that passed, but perhaps I misremember)
- franze 2y agototally an AI written article, could all be an hallucination after all.
- hprotagonist 2y agoStrawberry? With two “r”s?
- adriand 2y agoNo, three.
- qwertox 2y agoOpenAI has become the new vaporware announcer. No memory, no advanced voice, no SearchGPT. GPT-4o is a dumbed-down version of GPT-4, GPT-4o mini is even more useless. Might be good for the API, but in ChatGPT? GPT-4 is from 14. March 2023, since then nothing has improved.
- jexe 2y agoMissed opportunity to name it Strawbery