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>European market has always seemed like a tertiary market compared to the US and Asia Well, this isn't even remotely accurate on the numbers. For virtually eve

>European market has always seemed like a tertiary market compared to the US and Asia Well, this isn't even remotely accurate on the numbers. For virtually every big tech company the US is about half of the market, Europe about 30%, then ~15% Asian Pacific, and give or take a bit in the rest of the world. Given that most large tech companies are locked out of China or quickly leaving the only large country with comparable purchasing power to Europe in Asia is Japan.

nradov 2y ago
It's about revenue growth opportunities, not current market share. Europe in general is largely stagnant, and seems likely to trend down due to the demographic time bomb. In Asia, South Korea is already comparable to Japan as a technology market (but also stagnating). The big Asia-Pacific growth opportunities are going to be in India, Malaysia, and Philippines.
- shortrounddev2 2y ago
  Africa will soon emerge as an important market as well, particularly Nigeria. Japan and Korea are, as you said, not only stagnating but deflating (in the case of Japan). I believe GDP actually declined in Europe recently so I think Europe will shrink as a market in the coming decades unless they can fix demographic pressures and improve entrepreneurship. The US faces similar demographic problems but we have unique solutions to those problems that means that GDP growth is stronger in the US than virtually anywhere else in the world. India is a more mature "growing economy", and at this point I think the whole world is aware of the opportunities there. As you pointed out, Malaysia and the Philippines are growing, and so are other SE asian countries like Viet Nam and Thailand (though Thailand has struggled to grow since the pandemic, it's shown good growth since 2000). Africa is the untapped market right now; Nigeria is expected to exceed 400mil (if not 500-700mil) people by 2050. I don't know as much about their economy, so I'm not sure if this growth has translated into the kind of infrastructure which would create more demand for computing services (i.e: I don't know what smartphone or 5G penetration is like there), but I would bet that if it's not ripe yet, it will be soon Europe needs to solve its demographic pressures by either accepting more non-EU immigrants or doing something to encourage women to have more children, which would require solving for the opportunity cost (i.e: career stagnating or ending) that women bear 90+% of the time they have children, as well as the FOMO issues (which I don't think government can solve)
  - nradov 2y ago
    It's always humorous to see HN users praising the lifestyle of dense, walkable European cities. They don't realize how miserable it is to raise multiple children in the typical 2 bedroom / 1 bath flat that most locals can afford. It's not surprising that many couples have only one child.
    - shiroiushi 2y ago
      Historically, homes in the US were very small, far smaller than what you see today. Americans have a huge misconception about this, because the historic homes they see today are the ones that survived, and the ones that rich people lived in 100+ years ago. The homes that regular people lived in have all been torn down, because they were small and unremarkable. But you can see some of this if you visit neighborhoods built in the 1950s: the houses there are much smaller than newer nearby homes. However, despite a trend towards much larger homes in the US over the last 50+ years, Americans (at least the ones who can afford nicer homes) have been having far fewer children. So apparently Americans preferred having lots of kids back when they lived in homes with less than ~900 square feet. As for Europe, Europeans have been living in dense, walkable areas with small homes for millennia, and didn't have any trouble raising lots of kids in that environment all that time.
      - nradov 2y ago
        Yes, people's expectations around living space and privacy have inflated. What's your point? It's not as if Americans or Europeans are suddenly going to go back to tolerating having a bunch of kids in a cramped urban flat. And it was never "preferred". They mostly only ever did that in the first place due to religion and lack of birth control.
        shiroiushi 2y ago
        My point is that small living spaces aren't the reason Europeans aren't having kids. Middle-class Americans aren't having kids either, even though they live in suburbs with oversized houses that they're spending all their income on.

nradov 2y ago

It's about revenue growth opportunities, not current market share. Europe in general is largely stagnant, and seems likely to trend down due to the demographic time bomb. In Asia, South Korea is already comparable to Japan as a technology market (but also stagnating). The big Asia-Pacific growth opportunities are going to be in India, Malaysia, and Philippines.

shortrounddev2 2y ago
Africa will soon emerge as an important market as well, particularly Nigeria. Japan and Korea are, as you said, not only stagnating but deflating (in the case of Japan). I believe GDP actually declined in Europe recently so I think Europe will shrink as a market in the coming decades unless they can fix demographic pressures and improve entrepreneurship. The US faces similar demographic problems but we have unique solutions to those problems that means that GDP growth is stronger in the US than virtually anywhere else in the world. India is a more mature "growing economy", and at this point I think the whole world is aware of the opportunities there. As you pointed out, Malaysia and the Philippines are growing, and so are other SE asian countries like Viet Nam and Thailand (though Thailand has struggled to grow since the pandemic, it's shown good growth since 2000). Africa is the untapped market right now; Nigeria is expected to exceed 400mil (if not 500-700mil) people by 2050. I don't know as much about their economy, so I'm not sure if this growth has translated into the kind of infrastructure which would create more demand for computing services (i.e: I don't know what smartphone or 5G penetration is like there), but I would bet that if it's not ripe yet, it will be soon Europe needs to solve its demographic pressures by either accepting more non-EU immigrants or doing something to encourage women to have more children, which would require solving for the opportunity cost (i.e: career stagnating or ending) that women bear 90+% of the time they have children, as well as the FOMO issues (which I don't think government can solve)
- nradov 2y ago
  It's always humorous to see HN users praising the lifestyle of dense, walkable European cities. They don't realize how miserable it is to raise multiple children in the typical 2 bedroom / 1 bath flat that most locals can afford. It's not surprising that many couples have only one child.
  - shiroiushi 2y ago
    Historically, homes in the US were very small, far smaller than what you see today. Americans have a huge misconception about this, because the historic homes they see today are the ones that survived, and the ones that rich people lived in 100+ years ago. The homes that regular people lived in have all been torn down, because they were small and unremarkable. But you can see some of this if you visit neighborhoods built in the 1950s: the houses there are much smaller than newer nearby homes. However, despite a trend towards much larger homes in the US over the last 50+ years, Americans (at least the ones who can afford nicer homes) have been having far fewer children. So apparently Americans preferred having lots of kids back when they lived in homes with less than ~900 square feet. As for Europe, Europeans have been living in dense, walkable areas with small homes for millennia, and didn't have any trouble raising lots of kids in that environment all that time.
    - nradov 2y ago
      Yes, people's expectations around living space and privacy have inflated. What's your point? It's not as if Americans or Europeans are suddenly going to go back to tolerating having a bunch of kids in a cramped urban flat. And it was never "preferred". They mostly only ever did that in the first place due to religion and lack of birth control.
      - shiroiushi 2y ago
        My point is that small living spaces aren't the reason Europeans aren't having kids. Middle-class Americans aren't having kids either, even though they live in suburbs with oversized houses that they're spending all their income on.