3 ms·

The big problem for me (outside of the annoying betting line during broadcasts) is that it ruins the integrity of the game. How can we be sure it's even a real

The big problem for me (outside of the annoying betting line during broadcasts) is that it ruins the integrity of the game. How can we be sure it's even a real contest anymore, and that a player(s) aren't throwing the game? Sure it's a problem old as time, but it feels like today it's a lot easier to get caught up in with the massive amounts of money swinging by.

dgfitz 2y ago
I would posit that it is easier to get caught now than it has ever been. I've heard of more players getting caught and banned in the past few years than I have in the past 20.
Larrikin 2y ago
I think player's salaries in the big leagues are high enough for players to not ruin their income for the most part. The few players that get caught are banned and punished extremely harshly.
nradov 2y ago
Some teams have intentionally thrown games just to get higher draft picks for the next season. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-astros-tanked-their-way-to-the-top/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-astros-tanked-their...
- mrinfinitiesx 2y ago
  They do/did it in e-sports too. But for video game skins they can trade for money. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counter-Strike_match_fixing_scandal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counter-Strike_match_fixing_sc...
adamrezich 2y ago
This is why election betting being legal and even frequently cited these days is kinda crazy to me.
- jaredklewis 2y ago
  It seems intuitively unlikely that a candidate would intentionally throw an election to cash in on a bet from prediction markets. There are major differences with sports: - Player salaries are generally independent of the outcome of an individual game. So losing any given game does not have a financial downside for the player. If you lose the election, you get nothing, versus if you win, the benefits are massive. - A sport player can intentionally miss shots, which has only a small reputational cost, but can drastically alter the outcome of the game. But IME, voters are usually voting against the other party, not for a particular party or candidate. So whatever the candidate does to throw the election has to be so terrible to their own reputation, that voters despise them more than they do the party they typically vote against. So the cost to the candidate is huge. They basically have to compltely ruin their reputation. - Upside is too small. Total market volume for prediction markets is tiny, hundreds of millions for the entire year. More than $100 billion is wagered every year on sports bets. Hard to see given the immense cost to the candidates, how the incentives could be great enough. Even in sports, I think players that are open to throwing a game are by far in the minority. Given the much greater cost political candidates would face to do the same
  - adamrezich 2y ago
    > It seems intuitively unlikely that a candidate would intentionally throw an election to cash in on a bet from prediction markets. That's not the only way in which election betting can affect the results of an election.
maxerickson 2y ago
They have been setting the rules to make games more suited for television broadcast for decades. It's entertainment as much as it is sport, gambling or not.

dgfitz 2y ago

I would posit that it is easier to get caught now than it has ever been. I've heard of more players getting caught and banned in the past few years than I have in the past 20.

Larrikin 2y ago

I think player's salaries in the big leagues are high enough for players to not ruin their income for the most part. The few players that get caught are banned and punished extremely harshly.

nradov 2y ago

Some teams have intentionally thrown games just to get higher draft picks for the next season. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-astros-tanked-their-way-to-the-top/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-astros-tanked-their...

mrinfinitiesx 2y ago
They do/did it in e-sports too. But for video game skins they can trade for money. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counter-Strike_match_fixing_scandal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counter-Strike_match_fixing_sc...

adamrezich 2y ago

This is why election betting being legal and even frequently cited these days is kinda crazy to me.

jaredklewis 2y ago
It seems intuitively unlikely that a candidate would intentionally throw an election to cash in on a bet from prediction markets. There are major differences with sports: - Player salaries are generally independent of the outcome of an individual game. So losing any given game does not have a financial downside for the player. If you lose the election, you get nothing, versus if you win, the benefits are massive. - A sport player can intentionally miss shots, which has only a small reputational cost, but can drastically alter the outcome of the game. But IME, voters are usually voting against the other party, not for a particular party or candidate. So whatever the candidate does to throw the election has to be so terrible to their own reputation, that voters despise them more than they do the party they typically vote against. So the cost to the candidate is huge. They basically have to compltely ruin their reputation. - Upside is too small. Total market volume for prediction markets is tiny, hundreds of millions for the entire year. More than $100 billion is wagered every year on sports bets. Hard to see given the immense cost to the candidates, how the incentives could be great enough. Even in sports, I think players that are open to throwing a game are by far in the minority. Given the much greater cost political candidates would face to do the same
- adamrezich 2y ago
  > It seems intuitively unlikely that a candidate would intentionally throw an election to cash in on a bet from prediction markets. That's not the only way in which election betting can affect the results of an election.

maxerickson 2y ago

They have been setting the rules to make games more suited for television broadcast for decades. It's entertainment as much as it is sport, gambling or not.