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Any estimates on how much this will relieve our healthcare system.. aren't diabetes and CVD the biggest burdens? Will insurance costs come down if the US beco

by drooby 2y ago

Any estimates on how much this will relieve our healthcare system.. aren't diabetes and CVD the biggest burdens? Will insurance costs come down if the US becomes healthier?

warkdarrior 2y ago
> Will insurance costs come down if the US becomes healthier? Health insurance prices in US are not related to demand, but to how much the market can bear. It may even go the other way, if drug companies decide to increase prices to make up for reduced demand ("we still need to recoup our drug R&D costs, so fewer sales means higher prices").
lotsofpulp 2y ago
ACA compliant health insurance premiums are only for healthcare for under 65 year olds. I’m sure there is quite a bit of spend in there for diabetes/CVD/and other obesity related health issues, but the bigger impact would be on Medicare spending (65+ year olds), which is a federal expense. Edit: note that the weight loss drugs may not decrease healthcare spend. For example, if it leads to more people living longer and utilizing other more expensive healthcare such as dialysis or cancer treatments, then the net effect will be an increase. For example, 25% of all Medicare spend is just for dialysis or kidney related issues. https://www.kidney.org/sites/default/files/fy2023_kidney_disease_final_letter_signed.pdf https://www.kidney.org/sites/default/files/fy2023_kidney_dis...
mensetmanusman 2y ago
Costs are $10k annual for life, might not help.
- petesergeant 2y ago
  In the US only, it's much much cheaper in the UK, UAE, Canada.
  - mensetmanusman 2y ago
    That’s good to hear, will be a natural experiment then!
- lotsofpulp 2y ago
  The patent should expire in 20 years or so, and presumably there will be advancements in mechanisms to administer it/generics that bring down the price.
  - comfortabledoug 2y ago
    Patent for semaglutide is expiring starting next year
  - Jtsummers 2y ago
    Semaglutide will fall out of patent protection in 2031 in the US, earlier in other countries. Drug patents do last 20 years (in the US), but the patent date is always some time before the medication is first sold. You also don't get a new patent for finding a new application of the same drug. So a diabetes treatment drug that's now used for weight loss without sufficient modification will expire at the same time as it originally would have even if it gets a new marketing name. Different formulations based on the original drug could get a new patent, though.
- sisk 2y ago
  Price will come down and, in the meantime, compounding pharmacies are filling the gap in addressing stock shortages and high prices. Just be sure to use a reputable pharmacy if you decided to go that route.
NickC25 2y ago
>Any estimates on how much this will relieve our healthcare system.. aren't diabetes and CVD the biggest burdens? I know diabetes is up there, but I was also under the impression that cancer and cancer-adjacent issues were a much larger burden on the system than CVD or end-of-life care (or aging related problems like arthritis or dementia). Could be wrong though - I'd love to see numbers and statistics. >Will insurance costs come down if the US becomes healthier? No. Insurers are public companies and need to increase profits every quarter. Lowering costs harms this ability tremendously.
- lotsofpulp 2y ago
  > No. Insurers are public companies and need to increase profits every quarter. Lowering costs harms this ability tremendously. And selling their insurance at higher prices than their competitors harms their ability to sell their insurance to customers. Hopefully, you or your employer are shopping around, and not just for health insurance.
  - NickC25 2y ago
    Hard to shop around as an individual who doesn't work for a large corporation. My rates are absurdly high, and I get effectively zero coverage. None of the plans I could chose from were all that different.
    - lotsofpulp 2y ago
      That is because those are the lowest prices possible. Insurance companies earn tiny low single digit profit margins. Almost every dollar they collect goes out as an expense for claims. They literally have to get their prices approved by the state government regulator. To suggest they are colluding to ratchet up the amount of money they spend on healthcare is unsubstantiated conspiracy theory. It’s actually funny, because at the same time, there are complaints of insurance denying coverage and requiring prior authorizations. So which is it? Insurance companies inflating healthcare spend to increase their profit, or denying coverage to reduce healthcare spend to increase profit? Your premiums are high because the ACA mandates your premiums pay for healthcare that older and sicker people get. A huge portion is effectively a tax, from young and healthy to old and sick. >Hard to shop around as an individual who doesn't work for a large corporation. That must be because you are in a low population state, or a state where the regulators make it difficult for companies to compete. For example, New Jersey has many options for an individual to choose from: https://www.nj.gov/dobi/division_insurance/ihcseh/ihcrates2024.pdf https://www.nj.gov/dobi/division_insurance/ihcseh/ihcrates20...
ribosometronome 2y ago
>Any estimates on how much this will relieve our healthcare system.. aren't diabetes and CVD the biggest burdens? Long term, I don't think this will necessarily decrease healthcare costs or the burden on the system. Ignoring the cost of the drugs, people not having diabetes means they're going to live longer and develop all the complex conditions that come with getting to be 75+.
- skrtskrt 2y ago
  sure but heart conditions from obesity and poor diet can start showing up as early as your 40s and ramp up quickly from there

by drooby 2y ago

Any estimates on how much this will relieve our healthcare system.. aren't diabetes and CVD the biggest burdens? Will insurance costs come down if the US becomes healthier?

warkdarrior 2y ago

> Will insurance costs come down if the US becomes healthier? Health insurance prices in US are not related to demand, but to how much the market can bear. It may even go the other way, if drug companies decide to increase prices to make up for reduced demand ("we still need to recoup our drug R&D costs, so fewer sales means higher prices").

lotsofpulp 2y ago

ACA compliant health insurance premiums are only for healthcare for under 65 year olds. I’m sure there is quite a bit of spend in there for diabetes/CVD/and other obesity related health issues, but the bigger impact would be on Medicare spending (65+ year olds), which is a federal expense. Edit: note that the weight loss drugs may not decrease healthcare spend. For example, if it leads to more people living longer and utilizing other more expensive healthcare such as dialysis or cancer treatments, then the net effect will be an increase. For example, 25% of all Medicare spend is just for dialysis or kidney related issues. https://www.kidney.org/sites/default/files/fy2023_kidney_disease_final_letter_signed.pdf https://www.kidney.org/sites/default/files/fy2023_kidney_dis...

mensetmanusman 2y ago

Costs are $10k annual for life, might not help.

petesergeant 2y ago
In the US only, it's much much cheaper in the UK, UAE, Canada.
- mensetmanusman 2y ago
  That’s good to hear, will be a natural experiment then!
lotsofpulp 2y ago
The patent should expire in 20 years or so, and presumably there will be advancements in mechanisms to administer it/generics that bring down the price.
- comfortabledoug 2y ago
  Patent for semaglutide is expiring starting next year
- Jtsummers 2y ago
  Semaglutide will fall out of patent protection in 2031 in the US, earlier in other countries. Drug patents do last 20 years (in the US), but the patent date is always some time before the medication is first sold. You also don't get a new patent for finding a new application of the same drug. So a diabetes treatment drug that's now used for weight loss without sufficient modification will expire at the same time as it originally would have even if it gets a new marketing name. Different formulations based on the original drug could get a new patent, though.
sisk 2y ago
Price will come down and, in the meantime, compounding pharmacies are filling the gap in addressing stock shortages and high prices. Just be sure to use a reputable pharmacy if you decided to go that route.

NickC25 2y ago

>Any estimates on how much this will relieve our healthcare system.. aren't diabetes and CVD the biggest burdens? I know diabetes is up there, but I was also under the impression that cancer and cancer-adjacent issues were a much larger burden on the system than CVD or end-of-life care (or aging related problems like arthritis or dementia). Could be wrong though - I'd love to see numbers and statistics. >Will insurance costs come down if the US becomes healthier? No. Insurers are public companies and need to increase profits every quarter. Lowering costs harms this ability tremendously.

lotsofpulp 2y ago
> No. Insurers are public companies and need to increase profits every quarter. Lowering costs harms this ability tremendously. And selling their insurance at higher prices than their competitors harms their ability to sell their insurance to customers. Hopefully, you or your employer are shopping around, and not just for health insurance.
- NickC25 2y ago
  Hard to shop around as an individual who doesn't work for a large corporation. My rates are absurdly high, and I get effectively zero coverage. None of the plans I could chose from were all that different.
  - lotsofpulp 2y ago
    That is because those are the lowest prices possible. Insurance companies earn tiny low single digit profit margins. Almost every dollar they collect goes out as an expense for claims. They literally have to get their prices approved by the state government regulator. To suggest they are colluding to ratchet up the amount of money they spend on healthcare is unsubstantiated conspiracy theory. It’s actually funny, because at the same time, there are complaints of insurance denying coverage and requiring prior authorizations. So which is it? Insurance companies inflating healthcare spend to increase their profit, or denying coverage to reduce healthcare spend to increase profit? Your premiums are high because the ACA mandates your premiums pay for healthcare that older and sicker people get. A huge portion is effectively a tax, from young and healthy to old and sick. >Hard to shop around as an individual who doesn't work for a large corporation. That must be because you are in a low population state, or a state where the regulators make it difficult for companies to compete. For example, New Jersey has many options for an individual to choose from: https://www.nj.gov/dobi/division_insurance/ihcseh/ihcrates2024.pdf https://www.nj.gov/dobi/division_insurance/ihcseh/ihcrates20...

ribosometronome 2y ago

>Any estimates on how much this will relieve our healthcare system.. aren't diabetes and CVD the biggest burdens? Long term, I don't think this will necessarily decrease healthcare costs or the burden on the system. Ignoring the cost of the drugs, people not having diabetes means they're going to live longer and develop all the complex conditions that come with getting to be 75+.

skrtskrt 2y ago
sure but heart conditions from obesity and poor diet can start showing up as early as your 40s and ramp up quickly from there