2 ms·

National press is wedded to the narrative of "soft" "cracking" etc. but any way you look at it this nation is almost dangerously over-employed. When the labor f

National press is wedded to the narrative of "soft" "cracking" etc. but any way you look at it this nation is almost dangerously over-employed. When the labor force is bouncing off all-time highs, any direction you look is down, if you are a dedicated doom journalist.

whiterknight 2y ago
> any way you look at it this nation is almost dangerously over-employed Look at labor participation rates. And percentage of stem degree holders working in stem fields.
- jeffbee 2y ago
  OK, I am looking at it right now. Prime-age workforce participation rate stands at 84%, a 20-year high and nearly the all-time high. What did you want it to be? Have you actually ever seen this stat? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1sW5m https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1sW5m
  - matwood 2y ago
    I've concluded there is some segment of people who really just want everything to fail and fall apart. Any data that goes against that narrative must be fake.
    - jeffbee 2y ago
      I more generously conclude that they are simply being influenced by bad-faith commentators who appeal to the desire to seem smart, while the victims are also unwilling to take the time to look at primary sources. It is superficially true that the gross labor force participation rate is falling, and it is easy for shadowstats grifters to point that out. They are hoping you won't notice that this is caused entirely by Boomers retiring.
      - whiterknight 2y ago
        I have to generously conclude that people who think all is well live in communities of similarly educated high achieving adult. At least 20% of adults are incapable of following a schedule, let alone holding a white collar job. To put it another way; I don’t know a single person outside of well educated circles who is doing ok in employment (and a lot that aren’t anyway). The bias in institutional reporting is not toward collapse. Its toward institutional status quo.
        jeffbee 2y ago
        So are you just abandoning your theory of the labor force participation rate, or do you want to revise it?
        whiterknight 2y ago
        Nope. I stand by all comments in this thread.
toomuchtodo 2y ago
Look at wages, not jobs. Someone working three jobs who cannot make ends meet is not a success story, it is a symptom of dysfunction. “You work three jobs? Uniquely American, isn't it? I mean, that is fantastic that you're doing that." To a divorced mother of three, Omaha, Nebraska, Feb. 4, 2005” ― George W. Bush Businesses are trying to squeeze as hard as possible to maintain margins and profit levels previously seen (running "lean", outsourcing to India and South America, etc). Regardless, it is time to cut rates, no less than 50 bps next month. Preserve the labor market, to hell with the last of inflation unlikely to be squeezed out because of housing shortages and corporate consolidation. Tech and Google are not the economy, broadly speaking. They are microcosms in a macro of ~157 million US workers (give or take).
- jeffbee 2y ago
  I tend to agree that it's a pointless race to the bottom with too many jobs per household, but that's really a game theoretic outcome. If your neighbors want to "get ahead" by having two employed adults, or several jobs each, then it basically forces you to earn equivalently or you'll be priced out. However, the most interesting thing to note is the discourse. You and the sibling commenter have advanced incompatible and opposite narratives.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    I don't think it's incompatible, I think you are having trouble reconciling the data (which is totally fair, we are discussing a very complex system with a lot of inherent data blindness). Labor force participation rate is high because higher price levels have brought people back into the labor force (which fuzzes the unemployment rate, because people newly looking for a job are considered unemployed while searching), along with folks having to work multiple jobs and households that require dual incomes just to get by. If labor force participation rate is at all time highs, unemployment is historically low but ticking up, the consumer is not confident, the number of folks searching for new jobs is at all time highs, it is taking folks 3, 6, 9, 12 months to get a job (even with "low" unemployment), and credit card and auto loan defaults are hitting a decade high, what does this tell us? Everyone employed is meaningless if they're living hand to mouth, their job can evaporate at any time, they're filling the wage expense gap with credit (that there is evidence they're no longer able to service), and if you get knocked out of your job, it could take months or a year+ to get into a new one. I argue the economy can handle "labor shortages" (or rather, having to pay people a living wage) vs the current macro, by lowering the federal funds rate. If the Fed waits until there is a labor market crises, they're already too late. https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2024-08-20/fed-officials-uneasy-about-job-market-they-get-ready-jackson-hole https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2024-08-20/fed-offic... https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/28-americans-are-now-searching-new-job-highest-rate-decade-rcna167368 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/28-americans-are-no... https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/23/oxfam-report-low-wage-workers-still-make-up-23percent-of-us-workers.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/23/oxfam-report-low-wage-worker... https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/29/us-workers-are-less-satisfied-with-nearly-every-aspect-of-their-jobs-survey-finds.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/29/us-workers-are-less-satisfie... https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-consumers-increasingly-tapped-110000591.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-consumers-increasingly-tap... https://www.bai.org/banking-strategies/credit-card-and-auto-loans-falling-into-delinquency-hit-highest-rate-in-a-decade-and-defaults-have-not-peaked-fed-says/ https://www.bai.org/banking-strategies/credit-card-and-auto-... https://www.marketplace.org/2024/08/20/for-most-u-s-households-buying-a-home-isnt-within-reach/ https://www.marketplace.org/2024/08/20/for-most-u-s-househol...

whiterknight 2y ago

> any way you look at it this nation is almost dangerously over-employed Look at labor participation rates. And percentage of stem degree holders working in stem fields.

jeffbee 2y ago
OK, I am looking at it right now. Prime-age workforce participation rate stands at 84%, a 20-year high and nearly the all-time high. What did you want it to be? Have you actually ever seen this stat? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1sW5m https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1sW5m
- matwood 2y ago
  I've concluded there is some segment of people who really just want everything to fail and fall apart. Any data that goes against that narrative must be fake.
  - jeffbee 2y ago
    I more generously conclude that they are simply being influenced by bad-faith commentators who appeal to the desire to seem smart, while the victims are also unwilling to take the time to look at primary sources. It is superficially true that the gross labor force participation rate is falling, and it is easy for shadowstats grifters to point that out. They are hoping you won't notice that this is caused entirely by Boomers retiring.
    - whiterknight 2y ago
      I have to generously conclude that people who think all is well live in communities of similarly educated high achieving adult. At least 20% of adults are incapable of following a schedule, let alone holding a white collar job. To put it another way; I don’t know a single person outside of well educated circles who is doing ok in employment (and a lot that aren’t anyway). The bias in institutional reporting is not toward collapse. Its toward institutional status quo.
      - jeffbee 2y ago
        So are you just abandoning your theory of the labor force participation rate, or do you want to revise it?
        whiterknight 2y ago
        Nope. I stand by all comments in this thread.

toomuchtodo 2y ago

Look at wages, not jobs. Someone working three jobs who cannot make ends meet is not a success story, it is a symptom of dysfunction. “You work three jobs? Uniquely American, isn't it? I mean, that is fantastic that you're doing that." To a divorced mother of three, Omaha, Nebraska, Feb. 4, 2005” ― George W. Bush Businesses are trying to squeeze as hard as possible to maintain margins and profit levels previously seen (running "lean", outsourcing to India and South America, etc). Regardless, it is time to cut rates, no less than 50 bps next month. Preserve the labor market, to hell with the last of inflation unlikely to be squeezed out because of housing shortages and corporate consolidation. Tech and Google are not the economy, broadly speaking. They are microcosms in a macro of ~157 million US workers (give or take).

jeffbee 2y ago
I tend to agree that it's a pointless race to the bottom with too many jobs per household, but that's really a game theoretic outcome. If your neighbors want to "get ahead" by having two employed adults, or several jobs each, then it basically forces you to earn equivalently or you'll be priced out. However, the most interesting thing to note is the discourse. You and the sibling commenter have advanced incompatible and opposite narratives.
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  I don't think it's incompatible, I think you are having trouble reconciling the data (which is totally fair, we are discussing a very complex system with a lot of inherent data blindness). Labor force participation rate is high because higher price levels have brought people back into the labor force (which fuzzes the unemployment rate, because people newly looking for a job are considered unemployed while searching), along with folks having to work multiple jobs and households that require dual incomes just to get by. If labor force participation rate is at all time highs, unemployment is historically low but ticking up, the consumer is not confident, the number of folks searching for new jobs is at all time highs, it is taking folks 3, 6, 9, 12 months to get a job (even with "low" unemployment), and credit card and auto loan defaults are hitting a decade high, what does this tell us? Everyone employed is meaningless if they're living hand to mouth, their job can evaporate at any time, they're filling the wage expense gap with credit (that there is evidence they're no longer able to service), and if you get knocked out of your job, it could take months or a year+ to get into a new one. I argue the economy can handle "labor shortages" (or rather, having to pay people a living wage) vs the current macro, by lowering the federal funds rate. If the Fed waits until there is a labor market crises, they're already too late. https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2024-08-20/fed-officials-uneasy-about-job-market-they-get-ready-jackson-hole https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2024-08-20/fed-offic... https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/28-americans-are-now-searching-new-job-highest-rate-decade-rcna167368 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/28-americans-are-no... https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/23/oxfam-report-low-wage-workers-still-make-up-23percent-of-us-workers.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/23/oxfam-report-low-wage-worker... https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/29/us-workers-are-less-satisfied-with-nearly-every-aspect-of-their-jobs-survey-finds.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/29/us-workers-are-less-satisfie... https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-consumers-increasingly-tapped-110000591.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-consumers-increasingly-tap... https://www.bai.org/banking-strategies/credit-card-and-auto-loans-falling-into-delinquency-hit-highest-rate-in-a-decade-and-defaults-have-not-peaked-fed-says/ https://www.bai.org/banking-strategies/credit-card-and-auto-... https://www.marketplace.org/2024/08/20/for-most-u-s-households-buying-a-home-isnt-within-reach/ https://www.marketplace.org/2024/08/20/for-most-u-s-househol...