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If GPT emulations of social experiments are not correct, policy decisions based on them will make them so. “GPT said people would hate buses, so we halved thei

If GPT emulations of social experiments are not correct, policy decisions based on them will make them so. “GPT said people would hate buses, so we halved their number and slashed transportation budget… Wow, do our people actually hate buses with passion!” “A year ago GPT said people would not be worried about climate change, so we stopped giving it coverage and removed related social adverts and initiatives. People really don’t give a flying duck about climate change it turns out, GPT was so right!” This is an oversimplification, of course; to say it with more nuance, anything socio- and psycho- is a minefield of self-fulfilling prophecies that ML seems to be nicely positioned to wreak havoc in. (But the small “this is not a replacement for human experiment” notice is going to be heeded by all, right?) As someone wrote once, all you need for machine dictatorship is an LLM and a critical number of human accomplices. No need for superintelligence or robots.

hsyehbeidhh 2y ago
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crngefest 2y ago
All you need for dictatorship in general is a critical number of human accomplices. I don’t see how an LLM in the mix would make it worse. IMO mass communication technologies (radio, TV, internet) are much more important in building a dictatorship.
- anileated 2y ago
  The quote was mostly a flourish (and apparently too open to interpretation to be useful). In any case, it is about hypothetical “machine dictatorship” in particular, not human dictatorships you describe. Machine dictatorship traditionally invokes an image of “AGI” and violent robots forcing or eliminating humans with raw power and compute capabilities, and thus with no substantial need for accomplices (us vs. them). In contrast, it could be that the more realistic and probable danger from ML is in fact more insidious and prosaic. What you say about human dictatorship is trivially true, but the quote is not about that. > I don’t see how an LLM in the mix would make it worse How about a thought experiment. 1. Take some historical persona you consider well-intentioned (for example, Lincoln), throw an LLM in that situation, and see if it could make it better 2. Take a person you consider a badly intentioned dictator (maybe that is Hitler), throw an LLM in that situation, and see if it could make it worse Let me know what you find.
  - tgv 2y ago
    Don't forget the deceptive aura of objectivity that machines have. It's easier to issue a command when "the machine has decided" or "God has decided" rather than "I just made this up".
    - actionfromafar 2y ago
      Even a pair of dice helps in that regard.
    - AnimalMuppet 2y ago
      This. The point of the "AI" is that it may make the humans are more willing to go along with the orders.
Mordisquitos 2y ago
> “GPT said people would hate buses, so we halved their number and slashed transportation budget… Wow, do our people actually hate buses with passion!” You jest, but if you don't mind me going off on a tangent, this reminds me how in the summer 2020 post-lockdown-period the local authorities of Barcelona decided that to reduce the spread of COVID they had to discourage out-of-town people going to the city for nightlife... so they halved the number of night buses connecting Barcelona with nearby towns. Because, of course, making twice the number of people congregate at bus stops and making night buses even more crammed was a great way to reduce contagion. Also, as everybody knows, people's decision whether or not to party in town on a Friday night is naturally contingent on the purely rational analysis as to the number of available buses to get home afterwards.
- strogonoff 2y ago
  Institutions have shown themselves not well-geared for coordinating and enacting consistent policy changes and avoiding unintended consequences under time pressure. Hopefully COVID was a lesson they learned from. I remember how in Seoul city authorities put yellow tape over outdoor sitting areas in public parks, while at the same time cafes (many of which are next to parks, highlighting the hilarity in real time) were full of people—because another policy allowed indoor dining as long as the number of people in each party is small and you put on a mask while not eating and leave when you are finished (guess how well that all was enforced).
pembrook 2y ago
In actuality though, GPT would likely be correct on the democratic will of the people for the things you cited. It’s literally just the blended average of human knowledge. What’s more democratic than that? Meanwhile, it seems the bigger risk for dictatorship is the current system where we put a tiny group of elites who condescendingly believe they’re smarter than the rest of us in charge (“you will take the bus with your 3 kids and groceries in hand and you will like it”). This is how you get do-nothing social signaling policies for climate change (eg. Straws, bottle caps, grocery bags). Which make urban elites feel good about themselves but are ironically actively harmful towards getting the correct policies inacted (eg. Investment in nuclear).
- eru 2y ago
  > It’s literally just the blended average of human knowledge. What’s more democratic than that? No, it's the 'blended average' of the texts it's been fed with. To state the obvious: illiterate people did not get a vote. Terminally online people got plenty of votes. And, GPT is also tuned to be helpful and to not get OpenAI in the news for racism etc, which is far from the 'blended average' of even the input texts.
- anileated 2y ago
  > GPT would likely be correct on the democratic will of the people for the things you cited This is a dangerous line of thought, if you extend it to “why bother actually asking people what they want, let’s get rid of voting and just use unfeeling software that can be pointed fingers at whenever things go wrong”. > a tiny group of elites who condescendingly believe they’re smarter I suppose I don’t disagree, a small group without a working democratic election process is how dictatorships work. > you will take the bus with your 3 kids and groceries in hand and you will like it Bit of a tangent from me, but it looks like you are mixing bits of city planner utopia with bits of, I guess, typical American suburban reality. In a walkable city planned for humans (not cars) the grocery store is just downstairs or around the corner, because denser living makes them profitable enough. When you can pop down for some eggs, stop by local bakery for fresh bread, and be back home in under 7 minutes, you don’t really want to take a major trip to Costco with all your kids to load up the fridge for the week. You could still drive there, of course, and I don’t think those “condescending elites”* frown too much on a fully occupied car (especially with kids), but unless you really enjoy road trips and parking lots you probably wouldn’t. > do-nothing social signaling policies for climate change (eg. Straws, bottle caps, grocery bags) Reducing use of plastic is not “do-nothing” for me. I’m not sure it has much to do with climate change but I don’t want microplastics to accumulate in my body or bodies of my kids. However, I can agree with you that these are only half-measures with good optics. * Very flattering by the way, I can barely afford a car** but if seeing benefits to walkable city planning makes me a bit elite I’ll take it! ** If my lack of wealth now makes you think I’m some kind of socialist, well I can only give you my word that I am far from.
AnimalMuppet 2y ago
> As someone wrote once, all you need for machine dictatorship is an LLM and a critical number of human accomplices. No need for superintelligence or robots. If that dictatorship shows up, the real dictator will be a human - the one who hacks the AI to control it. (Whether hacking from the inside or outside, and whether hacking by traditional means, or by feeding it biased training data.)

hsyehbeidhh 2y ago

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crngefest 2y ago

All you need for dictatorship in general is a critical number of human accomplices. I don’t see how an LLM in the mix would make it worse. IMO mass communication technologies (radio, TV, internet) are much more important in building a dictatorship.

anileated 2y ago
The quote was mostly a flourish (and apparently too open to interpretation to be useful). In any case, it is about hypothetical “machine dictatorship” in particular, not human dictatorships you describe. Machine dictatorship traditionally invokes an image of “AGI” and violent robots forcing or eliminating humans with raw power and compute capabilities, and thus with no substantial need for accomplices (us vs. them). In contrast, it could be that the more realistic and probable danger from ML is in fact more insidious and prosaic. What you say about human dictatorship is trivially true, but the quote is not about that. > I don’t see how an LLM in the mix would make it worse How about a thought experiment. 1. Take some historical persona you consider well-intentioned (for example, Lincoln), throw an LLM in that situation, and see if it could make it better 2. Take a person you consider a badly intentioned dictator (maybe that is Hitler), throw an LLM in that situation, and see if it could make it worse Let me know what you find.
- tgv 2y ago
  Don't forget the deceptive aura of objectivity that machines have. It's easier to issue a command when "the machine has decided" or "God has decided" rather than "I just made this up".
  - actionfromafar 2y ago
    Even a pair of dice helps in that regard.
  - AnimalMuppet 2y ago
    This. The point of the "AI" is that it may make the humans are more willing to go along with the orders.

Mordisquitos 2y ago

> “GPT said people would hate buses, so we halved their number and slashed transportation budget… Wow, do our people actually hate buses with passion!” You jest, but if you don't mind me going off on a tangent, this reminds me how in the summer 2020 post-lockdown-period the local authorities of Barcelona decided that to reduce the spread of COVID they had to discourage out-of-town people going to the city for nightlife... so they halved the number of night buses connecting Barcelona with nearby towns. Because, of course, making twice the number of people congregate at bus stops and making night buses even more crammed was a great way to reduce contagion. Also, as everybody knows, people's decision whether or not to party in town on a Friday night is naturally contingent on the purely rational analysis as to the number of available buses to get home afterwards.

strogonoff 2y ago
Institutions have shown themselves not well-geared for coordinating and enacting consistent policy changes and avoiding unintended consequences under time pressure. Hopefully COVID was a lesson they learned from. I remember how in Seoul city authorities put yellow tape over outdoor sitting areas in public parks, while at the same time cafes (many of which are next to parks, highlighting the hilarity in real time) were full of people—because another policy allowed indoor dining as long as the number of people in each party is small and you put on a mask while not eating and leave when you are finished (guess how well that all was enforced).

pembrook 2y ago

In actuality though, GPT would likely be correct on the democratic will of the people for the things you cited. It’s literally just the blended average of human knowledge. What’s more democratic than that? Meanwhile, it seems the bigger risk for dictatorship is the current system where we put a tiny group of elites who condescendingly believe they’re smarter than the rest of us in charge (“you will take the bus with your 3 kids and groceries in hand and you will like it”). This is how you get do-nothing social signaling policies for climate change (eg. Straws, bottle caps, grocery bags). Which make urban elites feel good about themselves but are ironically actively harmful towards getting the correct policies inacted (eg. Investment in nuclear).

eru 2y ago
> It’s literally just the blended average of human knowledge. What’s more democratic than that? No, it's the 'blended average' of the texts it's been fed with. To state the obvious: illiterate people did not get a vote. Terminally online people got plenty of votes. And, GPT is also tuned to be helpful and to not get OpenAI in the news for racism etc, which is far from the 'blended average' of even the input texts.
anileated 2y ago
> GPT would likely be correct on the democratic will of the people for the things you cited This is a dangerous line of thought, if you extend it to “why bother actually asking people what they want, let’s get rid of voting and just use unfeeling software that can be pointed fingers at whenever things go wrong”. > a tiny group of elites who condescendingly believe they’re smarter I suppose I don’t disagree, a small group without a working democratic election process is how dictatorships work. > you will take the bus with your 3 kids and groceries in hand and you will like it Bit of a tangent from me, but it looks like you are mixing bits of city planner utopia with bits of, I guess, typical American suburban reality. In a walkable city planned for humans (not cars) the grocery store is just downstairs or around the corner, because denser living makes them profitable enough. When you can pop down for some eggs, stop by local bakery for fresh bread, and be back home in under 7 minutes, you don’t really want to take a major trip to Costco with all your kids to load up the fridge for the week. You could still drive there, of course, and I don’t think those “condescending elites”* frown too much on a fully occupied car (especially with kids), but unless you really enjoy road trips and parking lots you probably wouldn’t. > do-nothing social signaling policies for climate change (eg. Straws, bottle caps, grocery bags) Reducing use of plastic is not “do-nothing” for me. I’m not sure it has much to do with climate change but I don’t want microplastics to accumulate in my body or bodies of my kids. However, I can agree with you that these are only half-measures with good optics. * Very flattering by the way, I can barely afford a car** but if seeing benefits to walkable city planning makes me a bit elite I’ll take it! ** If my lack of wealth now makes you think I’m some kind of socialist, well I can only give you my word that I am far from.

AnimalMuppet 2y ago

> As someone wrote once, all you need for machine dictatorship is an LLM and a critical number of human accomplices. No need for superintelligence or robots. If that dictatorship shows up, the real dictator will be a human - the one who hacks the AI to control it. (Whether hacking from the inside or outside, and whether hacking by traditional means, or by feeding it biased training data.)