6 ms·

If that was true, Russia would have been utterly defeated a long time ago. Ukraine uses about 4000 drones per day, even if a successful hit meant just 1 infantr

If that was true, Russia would have been utterly defeated a long time ago. Ukraine uses about 4000 drones per day, even if a successful hit meant just 1 infantryman killed or incapacitated, Russians will be at the negotiation table, at least, because no way they can sustain 1000 people per day in irrecoverable losses.

theblobawakens 2y ago
Russia's professional army plus reservists was about 2.1M before the war. Add 2-300K volunteers who signed up since to replace professional soldiers departing, out of patriotism or because pay was increased 3-4x. Even with all that, Russia still won't have drafted anybody in the pool of about 20M ex-conscripts who went through basic military service in their youth. They can absolutely sustain that and much more from a purely military point of view. Of course, if you involve public opinion in these matters, 1'000 a day is indeed a bit much for what is not a defensive war.
- racional 2y ago
  10000 a day is indeed a bit much for what is not a defensive war. As is 10 percent of annual GDP.
- some_random 2y ago
  Over the ~10 years of US involvement in Vietnam, the US had 58k dead and 150k hospitalized. In less than two and a half years of SMO, Russia has had probably around 315k casualties? 61k have been confirmed dead for sure. The other thing to consider is that sure Russia had 2.1M professional soldiers and reservists, but how many knew how to fly a Ka-50? How many were well trained tank gunners? How many were competent, experienced members of the NCO corps, or well trained and equipped paratroopers, or artillery officers? How many are left, and how many have to have their positions go empty or be filled by someone new without adequate experience?
- fpoling 2y ago
  It appeared Russia cannot sustain the losses long term. The sign-up bonus for volunteers during the last year increased by factor of 10 from 2k USD to over 20K. Plus Russia has severe deficit of working force for anything that required non-trivial amount of training. They cannot afford a new mobilization wave for this reason.
lupusreal 2y ago
> Ukraine uses about 4000 drones per day Use, or expend?
- JoachimS 2y ago
  Mainly expend. Most of them, after release lives for minutes up to half an hour or so. Often they aren't even charged to full capacity.
  - anovikov 2y ago
    I think most electric drones can't stay in the air for half an hour. Why not charged to full capacity?
  - anovikov 2y ago
    Also... if it is true that drones live for less than 2 sorties on average, that makes their returnable use pointless because launching them one-off doubles the range as they don't need to store charge for return trip, don't you think? Also i assume, primary cells that are not rechargeable, can have higher capacity than rechargeable batteries.
    - pbmonster 2y ago
      > Also i assume, primary cells that are not rechargeable, can have higher capacity than rechargeable batteries. Interesting, do you have more information on state of the art non-rechargeable batteries? I would assume they just use normal LiPo cells anyway and just charge them once, ideally at the factory. Cheap, light (compared to the warhead at least), can deliver enough current.
      - mgc_mgc 2y ago
        Zinc-Air primary cells have about twice the energy density of Li-ion cells. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_commercial_battery_types https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_commercial_batte...
  - 2y ago
JoachimS 2y ago
Russia is in fact loosing more than 1000 people per day. It has for many months. https://www.newsweek.com/russia-highest-monthly-losses-ukraine-casualties-1907093 https://www.newsweek.com/russia-highest-monthly-losses-ukrai... They also loose equipment at a staggering rate. From the start of the invasion 2022 until end of July, they have lost more than 570 000 soldiers, 8000 tanks and 16000 artillery systems. Oh and also 38 war ships and one submarine - against a country that didn't have a navy at the start of the invasion. Drones is ammunition and is used in air, land and sea.
- CapricornNoble 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - genman 2y ago
    How much spreading Russian talking points pays these days?
    - lawlessone 2y ago
      That's not all he's spreading.. edit: though largely it is.
    - MC995 2y ago
      Please don't post insinuations about astroturfing, shilling, brigading, foreign agents, and the like. It degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
      - lawlessone 2y ago
        It's going on this website whether people would like to admit it or not.
      - genman 2y ago
        Why should I waste my valuable time to answer anything meaningful to an obvious propaganda comment? Such comments are what are degrading HN discussion.
narrator 2y ago
"4000 drones per day" : The future is killer robots. Everywhere. I could see a sci-fi future where we visit some planet somewhere and when we land there are no living beings anywhere. Just killer robot factories pumping out more killer robots fighting an endless war with each other fully autonomously. That's another AGI super intelligence end state. You get two AGI super intelligences fighting a war against each other and they fight until the entire planet is turned into killer drones and explosives. A plausible form of paper clip maximizer.

theblobawakens 2y ago

Russia's professional army plus reservists was about 2.1M before the war. Add 2-300K volunteers who signed up since to replace professional soldiers departing, out of patriotism or because pay was increased 3-4x. Even with all that, Russia still won't have drafted anybody in the pool of about 20M ex-conscripts who went through basic military service in their youth. They can absolutely sustain that and much more from a purely military point of view. Of course, if you involve public opinion in these matters, 1'000 a day is indeed a bit much for what is not a defensive war.

racional 2y ago
10000 a day is indeed a bit much for what is not a defensive war. As is 10 percent of annual GDP.
some_random 2y ago
Over the ~10 years of US involvement in Vietnam, the US had 58k dead and 150k hospitalized. In less than two and a half years of SMO, Russia has had probably around 315k casualties? 61k have been confirmed dead for sure. The other thing to consider is that sure Russia had 2.1M professional soldiers and reservists, but how many knew how to fly a Ka-50? How many were well trained tank gunners? How many were competent, experienced members of the NCO corps, or well trained and equipped paratroopers, or artillery officers? How many are left, and how many have to have their positions go empty or be filled by someone new without adequate experience?
fpoling 2y ago
It appeared Russia cannot sustain the losses long term. The sign-up bonus for volunteers during the last year increased by factor of 10 from 2k USD to over 20K. Plus Russia has severe deficit of working force for anything that required non-trivial amount of training. They cannot afford a new mobilization wave for this reason.

lupusreal 2y ago

> Ukraine uses about 4000 drones per day Use, or expend?

JoachimS 2y ago
Mainly expend. Most of them, after release lives for minutes up to half an hour or so. Often they aren't even charged to full capacity.
- anovikov 2y ago
  I think most electric drones can't stay in the air for half an hour. Why not charged to full capacity?
- anovikov 2y ago
  Also... if it is true that drones live for less than 2 sorties on average, that makes their returnable use pointless because launching them one-off doubles the range as they don't need to store charge for return trip, don't you think? Also i assume, primary cells that are not rechargeable, can have higher capacity than rechargeable batteries.
  - pbmonster 2y ago
    > Also i assume, primary cells that are not rechargeable, can have higher capacity than rechargeable batteries. Interesting, do you have more information on state of the art non-rechargeable batteries? I would assume they just use normal LiPo cells anyway and just charge them once, ideally at the factory. Cheap, light (compared to the warhead at least), can deliver enough current.
    - mgc_mgc 2y ago
      Zinc-Air primary cells have about twice the energy density of Li-ion cells. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_commercial_battery_types https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_commercial_batte...
- 2y ago

JoachimS 2y ago

Russia is in fact loosing more than 1000 people per day. It has for many months. https://www.newsweek.com/russia-highest-monthly-losses-ukraine-casualties-1907093 https://www.newsweek.com/russia-highest-monthly-losses-ukrai... They also loose equipment at a staggering rate. From the start of the invasion 2022 until end of July, they have lost more than 570 000 soldiers, 8000 tanks and 16000 artillery systems. Oh and also 38 war ships and one submarine - against a country that didn't have a navy at the start of the invasion. Drones is ammunition and is used in air, land and sea.

CapricornNoble 2y ago
[flagged]
- genman 2y ago
  How much spreading Russian talking points pays these days?
  - lawlessone 2y ago
    That's not all he's spreading.. edit: though largely it is.
  - MC995 2y ago
    Please don't post insinuations about astroturfing, shilling, brigading, foreign agents, and the like. It degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
    - lawlessone 2y ago
      It's going on this website whether people would like to admit it or not.
    - genman 2y ago
      Why should I waste my valuable time to answer anything meaningful to an obvious propaganda comment? Such comments are what are degrading HN discussion.

narrator 2y ago

"4000 drones per day" : The future is killer robots. Everywhere. I could see a sci-fi future where we visit some planet somewhere and when we land there are no living beings anywhere. Just killer robot factories pumping out more killer robots fighting an endless war with each other fully autonomously. That's another AGI super intelligence end state. You get two AGI super intelligences fighting a war against each other and they fight until the entire planet is turned into killer drones and explosives. A plausible form of paper clip maximizer.