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What's fascinating here is not the ongoing drama at OpenAI. What I believe is most fascinating is that many people are fairly sure that history is being writte
by sebastiennight 2y ago
What's fascinating here is not the ongoing drama at OpenAI.
What I believe is most fascinating is that many people are fairly sure that history is being written (assuming Microsoft/OpenAI/sama remain a/the leader on the AI front).
But there is so much secrecy and uncertainty that it's completely unclear what meaning the drama will have in hindsight.
Maybe we reach utopia by 2050 and it all goes down in history as "wow, it was an epic ride worthy of a Hollywood hero story!"
Or we have a few years before a panopticon dystopia where we're all thinking "damn, we came so close to saving it all!"
Or, as is the most likely outcome in everything, it's mostly business as usual for 100 more years, and most of the drama is completely forgotten, while a couple of stories end up as Netflix docu-fiction series to watch on a rainy Sunday.
What's everyone's bet at the moment?
- unsupp0rted 2y agoIn a panopticon dystopia, it's likely if humans are left alive, they won't be allowed to know there was a better world before.
- tsunamifury 2y agoYea this is what Americans who didn’t go through Mao or Stalins erasure of history don’t fully appreciate.
- ComplexSystems 2y agoI'm pretty interested in this kind of thing - any resources you could suggest?
- tsunamifury 2y agoAdam Curtis’s Cant get you out of my head and Trauma Zone. They are a commitment but ultra rewarding.
- blitzar 2y agofairly sure that history is being re-written
- xyst 2y agoThe entire industry is overhyped. It’s going to crash burn. Hundreds of billions of dollars and many terrawatts burned (ie, entire countries worth of electricity) for a slightly better chatbot. It’s highly unsustainable This timeline is god awful.
- 343rwerfd 2y agoThe industry always has information before-hand, all those AI capable datacenters aren't being built just because a hunch. It is possible that the next iteration of GPT4 level technology has already ocurred a year ago, august 2023. The Q* thing was built around that time, probably went online some time after that. Word "in the street" says it is an exponential jump from GPT4 level of "AI cognition". The whole conversation - papers, press articles - about datawalls, billions sunk "for no reason", etc. could be just empty words since maybe october 2023. We'll see in couple of months probably.
- benwad 2y agoThey've been saying this for years, I'll believe it when I see it.
- elorant 2y agoThat AI will be democratized with the free models and every big player like OpenAI will implode at some point because they’re burning too much capital.