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NASDAQ will be absolutely massacred in the morning As someone without a home, I am uncomfortable with how happy I am about this news I’ve felt like since they

by lmpdev 2y ago

NASDAQ will be absolutely massacred in the morning As someone without a home, I am uncomfortable with how happy I am about this news I’ve felt like since they perhaps prematurely mass printed cash early in the pandemic, there’s been an absurd amount of capital that’s been incorrectly allocated Most misallocated capital from my perspective was funnelled into the rent->landlord->real-estate value pipeline (especially for supply-choked Australia and Canada) I do also think some stocks have been grossly overvalued, for example, NVIDIA’s stock price; CUDA is objectively not worth $2 TRILLION Perhaps in the future 2020-2025+ will be taught in economics for the ills of speculation. Money should not be too uncoupled from utility. Things like credit are important to keep capital flowing, but there needs to be much more scrutiny into assets inflating beyond what utility they can possibly provide long term It’s almost like every market, all at once, has been caught in a bubble Our much needed recession is here. I hope every inflated market is corrected accurately this time around In some ways, the good times beget the bad, and the bad times beget the good

addicted 2y ago
> As someone without a home, I am uncomfortable with how happy I am about this news What about not having a home makes you happy about this? Are you thinking this would lead to a drop in home prices?
- s5300 2y ago
  [dead]
- senectus1 2y ago
  presumably not having a mortgage. or maybe he has fallen on hard times and is looking forward to seeing others experiance his pain. Humans are weird.
  - lmpdev 2y ago
    Correct on both counts :)
- godzillabrennus 2y ago
  Recessions do tend to lower demand and drop home values. No one should be hoping/expecting prices to drop values significantly though.
- HEmanZ 2y ago
  The younger generation in much of the world is looking at the most unaffordable housing market in generations. Anything that lowers the price of home ownership could possibly help them buy. Unfortunately, as many from 2008 will tell you, a crash leading to more affordable housing and living for you only works if it crashes for everyone else but you manage to stay afloat (aka keep your job, and be relatively sure you won’t lose it at any moment). Otherwise you crash with the housing.
- amelius 2y ago
  Owning bricks pays off more than working and this will only get worse.
brabel 2y ago
> Perhaps in the future 2020-2025+ will be taught in economics for the ills of speculation. Everyone says the same thing on every crisis. And even though people do study those crisis later, we don't seem to be learning very much about how to avoid them in the future.
- bugbuddy 2y ago
  The real mistake is thinking that these are bad things that should be avoided. Anyone who has been to a casino knows that is patently false. It is just another round at the table.
- lm28469 2y ago
  If we keep bailing 99% of the culprits the new people in charge have no incentives to change. Some people are benefiting from these, it's designed to be that way
- strikelaserclaw 2y ago
  we need to replace humans at the helm with robots.
IG_Semmelweiss 2y ago
I agree, yet all that "mass printed cash" has to find a new home. Its not like govt spending has found a new home elsewhere,suddenly. The cash will be parked on the sidelines where the misallocation will continue.
- GoToRO 2y ago
  They meant that the bad news will affect them in a bad way, yet they are happy, probably due to other, positive, effects of the bad news, on the world/markets.
- sph 2y ago
  The mass printed cash has a home since day 1. The bank doesn't actually create money by printing, but by giving loans, in this case to major corporations and however was to benefit from this injection of cash. The fine print no one tells you about is that these first beneficiaries basically gets a lot of money before it hits the wider economy, so they get money pre-inflation. When it trickles down to the masses like us, inflation and price rises have already hit. However perfect pricing information might be encoded in the stock prices, their effect is not instantaneous. This is one mechanism by which companies and rich people get even richer during high inflation and volatile economy. That is, unless you buy into the insane Keynesian concept of inflation being a lack of spending.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
drstewart 2y ago
it is uncomfortably weird how eager so many people think and call for bad economic conditions as if they'll somehow be positive things
- adammarples 2y ago
  There will. It is absolutely necessary to occasionally have some form of recession to rebalance capital towards productive ends. Not allowing this to happen since 2008 has caused its own problems.
  - Der_Einzige 2y ago
    High interest rates do it for you and don’t guarantee a recession.
  - borggambit 2y ago
    It is like the Mexican restaurant near me that has never come back to the business it was doing before covid. The business is completely dead and just hanging on. People would view the business going under as negative but right now it is a complete waste of resources and the owner's life. I suspect there is a staggering amount of business in this exact situation but we don't seem to believe in creative destruction as a society anymore. Floating all these zombie businesses is just tinder for a larger fire that is harder to put out than it should be. No real shock the spark would be a yen carry blow up. I have seen this episode before.
- strikelaserclaw 2y ago
  if you think from the perspective of people who can't really build any wealth and are just slaving away with nothing to show for it - you can understand why they see it that way. Lets be honest, 80% of building wealth is just what time period and what country and what socioeconomic class you were born to
thriftwy 2y ago
> supply-choked Australia and Canada Made me chuckle as I would imagine these two should be least concern real estate supply-wise along with Russia. "First, a deficit of oil. Then, a deficit of sand."
- rsynnott 2y ago
  Housing crises are generally a function of policy and markets, not, er, land. Like, the US is pretty sparsely populated and has one. Ireland has a particularly nasty one; again, low population density. In the Irish case it’s largely down to an attitude after the financial crisis that Ireland would go back to its old pattern of bleeding out the working-age population through emigration, and therefore there was no need to keep the construction industry on life support in the way that other countries did. When this did not come to pass there was a problem; building shut down completely from 2008 to 2014, and while it’s now back on stream, there’s such a huge deficit from the period of no activity that it’s hard to overcome in the short term. Ireland currently has about seven times more housing starts per year per capita than the UK, and it’s still not good enough. This is a case where a recession, coupled with bad policy, made a housing crisis far, far worse.
GaryNumanVevo 2y ago
The market will be fine, Wall Street got caught taking a ton of zero interest loans from Japan to buy US stocks and now they're having to pay up. The vested interest in keeping the line going up will outlive us all.
simmerup 2y ago
You’re gloating a bit prematurely don’t you think?
- paulcole 2y ago
  That’s the most fun time to gloat!
- CoastalCoder 2y ago
  I didn't read the GP comment as gloating. It sounded to me like he had general anxiety that the economy has an underlying problem that's causing ongoing pains with e.g. rents. And that this selloff might be the start of a correction that fixes that. So, kind of like lancing a boil. Unpleasant, but better than continuing the status quo.
  - lmpdev 2y ago
    Yes you nailed my intentions I am genuinely worried me and my cohort’s lifespan 1996-20XX will be a period with an economy that continues to be as dysfunctional as it has been Especially worried it will never be addressed, or will take painful (see: revolutionary) measures to address the challenges ————— Where I live (Australia), we’ve had a decade of a conservative government. We finally voted in the more progressive party and instead of addressing the economic issues we’re facing, they’re strategically playing a small target platform (ie not introducing any substantial measures). I personally don’t see the Australian or Canadian economies being equitable until ~2035-2040, where the cohort at birthrate peak (boomers) begin dying en masse. Australia is a place of genuine demographic economic inequality for those born here, and still fairly economically adversarial to skilled migrants, let alone those who actually need an escape to a better place
tootie 2y ago
That's a pretty bad take and you're setting yourself up for disappointment if you think a market crash will lower home prices. Home prices are high because of too little construction and we're now going to get even less.
jarsin 2y ago
Somebody commented that they put their life savings in NVDA couple of months ago on some discussion here about AI. Their thesis was AI was going to replace us all so might as well own the top AI company. I knew we were close to top when I saw that. But I do think this is creating buying opportunity for some other non bubble stocks that never recovered like NVDA did.
- TMWNN 2y ago
  >I knew we were close to top when I saw that. I guess "'I put my life savings on [most buzzed-about stock of the day]' on Reddit" = "shoeshine boy giving stock tips to Joseph P. Kennedy"
- Kiro 2y ago
  The way people speak here in past tense of something that hasn't happened yet is ridiculous.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
throw0101d 2y ago
> NASDAQ will be absolutely massacred in the morning As someone saving for retirement: great. It means I can buy more units for the same amount of money that I could just a little while ago. * https://ofdollarsanddata.com/just-keep-buying/ https://ofdollarsanddata.com/just-keep-buying/
johnnyanmac 2y ago
> Our much needed recession is here. "My" recession is still being gaslighted by the US government as not happening. Japan has officially been in/out of a recession for over a year, so they at least got over the denial phase. Probably won't make many calls in the US until 2024 is over. >I hope every inflated market is corrected accurately this time around House always wins. So I'm not holding my breath. Doubt even a recession would kill off all the AI speculation. Maybe a depression would, but the economies is very different from the 30's depression.

by lmpdev 2y ago

addicted 2y ago

> As someone without a home, I am uncomfortable with how happy I am about this news What about not having a home makes you happy about this? Are you thinking this would lead to a drop in home prices?

s5300 2y ago
[dead]
senectus1 2y ago
presumably not having a mortgage. or maybe he has fallen on hard times and is looking forward to seeing others experiance his pain. Humans are weird.
- lmpdev 2y ago
  Correct on both counts :)
godzillabrennus 2y ago
Recessions do tend to lower demand and drop home values. No one should be hoping/expecting prices to drop values significantly though.
HEmanZ 2y ago
The younger generation in much of the world is looking at the most unaffordable housing market in generations. Anything that lowers the price of home ownership could possibly help them buy. Unfortunately, as many from 2008 will tell you, a crash leading to more affordable housing and living for you only works if it crashes for everyone else but you manage to stay afloat (aka keep your job, and be relatively sure you won’t lose it at any moment). Otherwise you crash with the housing.
amelius 2y ago
Owning bricks pays off more than working and this will only get worse.

brabel 2y ago

> Perhaps in the future 2020-2025+ will be taught in economics for the ills of speculation. Everyone says the same thing on every crisis. And even though people do study those crisis later, we don't seem to be learning very much about how to avoid them in the future.

bugbuddy 2y ago
The real mistake is thinking that these are bad things that should be avoided. Anyone who has been to a casino knows that is patently false. It is just another round at the table.
lm28469 2y ago
If we keep bailing 99% of the culprits the new people in charge have no incentives to change. Some people are benefiting from these, it's designed to be that way
strikelaserclaw 2y ago
we need to replace humans at the helm with robots.

IG_Semmelweiss 2y ago

I agree, yet all that "mass printed cash" has to find a new home. Its not like govt spending has found a new home elsewhere,suddenly. The cash will be parked on the sidelines where the misallocation will continue.

GoToRO 2y ago
They meant that the bad news will affect them in a bad way, yet they are happy, probably due to other, positive, effects of the bad news, on the world/markets.
sph 2y ago
The mass printed cash has a home since day 1. The bank doesn't actually create money by printing, but by giving loans, in this case to major corporations and however was to benefit from this injection of cash. The fine print no one tells you about is that these first beneficiaries basically gets a lot of money before it hits the wider economy, so they get money pre-inflation. When it trickles down to the masses like us, inflation and price rises have already hit. However perfect pricing information might be encoded in the stock prices, their effect is not instantaneous. This is one mechanism by which companies and rich people get even richer during high inflation and volatile economy. That is, unless you buy into the insane Keynesian concept of inflation being a lack of spending.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]

drstewart 2y ago

it is uncomfortably weird how eager so many people think and call for bad economic conditions as if they'll somehow be positive things

adammarples 2y ago
There will. It is absolutely necessary to occasionally have some form of recession to rebalance capital towards productive ends. Not allowing this to happen since 2008 has caused its own problems.
- Der_Einzige 2y ago
  High interest rates do it for you and don’t guarantee a recession.
- borggambit 2y ago
  It is like the Mexican restaurant near me that has never come back to the business it was doing before covid. The business is completely dead and just hanging on. People would view the business going under as negative but right now it is a complete waste of resources and the owner's life. I suspect there is a staggering amount of business in this exact situation but we don't seem to believe in creative destruction as a society anymore. Floating all these zombie businesses is just tinder for a larger fire that is harder to put out than it should be. No real shock the spark would be a yen carry blow up. I have seen this episode before.
strikelaserclaw 2y ago
if you think from the perspective of people who can't really build any wealth and are just slaving away with nothing to show for it - you can understand why they see it that way. Lets be honest, 80% of building wealth is just what time period and what country and what socioeconomic class you were born to

thriftwy 2y ago

> supply-choked Australia and Canada Made me chuckle as I would imagine these two should be least concern real estate supply-wise along with Russia. "First, a deficit of oil. Then, a deficit of sand."

rsynnott 2y ago
Housing crises are generally a function of policy and markets, not, er, land. Like, the US is pretty sparsely populated and has one. Ireland has a particularly nasty one; again, low population density. In the Irish case it’s largely down to an attitude after the financial crisis that Ireland would go back to its old pattern of bleeding out the working-age population through emigration, and therefore there was no need to keep the construction industry on life support in the way that other countries did. When this did not come to pass there was a problem; building shut down completely from 2008 to 2014, and while it’s now back on stream, there’s such a huge deficit from the period of no activity that it’s hard to overcome in the short term. Ireland currently has about seven times more housing starts per year per capita than the UK, and it’s still not good enough. This is a case where a recession, coupled with bad policy, made a housing crisis far, far worse.

GaryNumanVevo 2y ago

The market will be fine, Wall Street got caught taking a ton of zero interest loans from Japan to buy US stocks and now they're having to pay up. The vested interest in keeping the line going up will outlive us all.

simmerup 2y ago

You’re gloating a bit prematurely don’t you think?

paulcole 2y ago
That’s the most fun time to gloat!
CoastalCoder 2y ago
I didn't read the GP comment as gloating. It sounded to me like he had general anxiety that the economy has an underlying problem that's causing ongoing pains with e.g. rents. And that this selloff might be the start of a correction that fixes that. So, kind of like lancing a boil. Unpleasant, but better than continuing the status quo.
- lmpdev 2y ago
  Yes you nailed my intentions I am genuinely worried me and my cohort’s lifespan 1996-20XX will be a period with an economy that continues to be as dysfunctional as it has been Especially worried it will never be addressed, or will take painful (see: revolutionary) measures to address the challenges ————— Where I live (Australia), we’ve had a decade of a conservative government. We finally voted in the more progressive party and instead of addressing the economic issues we’re facing, they’re strategically playing a small target platform (ie not introducing any substantial measures). I personally don’t see the Australian or Canadian economies being equitable until ~2035-2040, where the cohort at birthrate peak (boomers) begin dying en masse. Australia is a place of genuine demographic economic inequality for those born here, and still fairly economically adversarial to skilled migrants, let alone those who actually need an escape to a better place

tootie 2y ago

That's a pretty bad take and you're setting yourself up for disappointment if you think a market crash will lower home prices. Home prices are high because of too little construction and we're now going to get even less.

jarsin 2y ago

Somebody commented that they put their life savings in NVDA couple of months ago on some discussion here about AI. Their thesis was AI was going to replace us all so might as well own the top AI company. I knew we were close to top when I saw that. But I do think this is creating buying opportunity for some other non bubble stocks that never recovered like NVDA did.

TMWNN 2y ago
>I knew we were close to top when I saw that. I guess "'I put my life savings on [most buzzed-about stock of the day]' on Reddit" = "shoeshine boy giving stock tips to Joseph P. Kennedy"
Kiro 2y ago
The way people speak here in past tense of something that hasn't happened yet is ridiculous.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

throw0101d 2y ago

> NASDAQ will be absolutely massacred in the morning As someone saving for retirement: great. It means I can buy more units for the same amount of money that I could just a little while ago. * https://ofdollarsanddata.com/just-keep-buying/ https://ofdollarsanddata.com/just-keep-buying/

johnnyanmac 2y ago

> Our much needed recession is here. "My" recession is still being gaslighted by the US government as not happening. Japan has officially been in/out of a recession for over a year, so they at least got over the denial phase. Probably won't make many calls in the US until 2024 is over. >I hope every inflated market is corrected accurately this time around House always wins. So I'm not holding my breath. Doubt even a recession would kill off all the AI speculation. Maybe a depression would, but the economies is very different from the 30's depression.