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The obvious counterpoint to this argument is what happened in Hong Kong. A diplomatic resolution seems unlikely to have a net-positive outcome for Taiwan under

The obvious counterpoint to this argument is what happened in Hong Kong. A diplomatic resolution seems unlikely to have a net-positive outcome for Taiwan under the current CCP regime.

worstspotgain 2y ago
Taiwan has obviously been watching the Hong Kong integration closely. Had it gone much better, Taiwan would have probably agreed to something similar. Frankly I think they were actually expecting much worse. An EU-style arrangement seems ideal in the medium term. It lets Taiwan have a positive long-term influence on Chinese politics, while preventing HK-style crackdowns in the other direction.
- pyuser583 2y ago
  How does an “EU” style arrangement make sense between two countries, one of which is extremely large the other extremely small?
  - worstspotgain 2y ago
    It makes sense because it functions as a bridge to eventual reunification. And the EU includes e.g. Luxembourg and Germany. The arrangement transfers some matters to unified control while retaining country sovereignty.
    - bobthepanda 2y ago
      The thing is that in EU they are two of 27. Being 1 of 4 is not so good, particularly when 1 is so big and the other two (Macau, HK) are defanged, and a federal devolution to the provinces of China is not in the cards.
      - worstspotgain 2y ago
        Well no one is doubting that the federal portion of the framework would be mainland-dominated, just like Germany has way more seats in the EU parliament than Luxembourg. But Taiwanese democracy (and military control) would be unaffected.
        bobthepanda 2y ago
        1. There is no scenario in which the PRC would relinquish military control 2. Germany makes up 18% of the EU’s population. The PRC makes up 98% of the combined populations of Taiwan, PRC, HK and Macau. That is quite the difference in lopsided power balance.
        worstspotgain 2y ago
        The PRC wouldn't have to relinquish military control, or really any control for that matter. The "Union" is basically the portion of control that Taiwan has already ceded to China. The key is that Taiwan retains the rest for the time being.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
- maxglute 2y ago
  From PRC perspective, HK integration went poorly for PRC interests because HK failed to implement national security law on their own (which btw they were suppose to pre 50 year handover) - they simply never took the One Country part of One Country Two Systems seriously. And TBH neither will TW with how much culture diverged over generations, hence the sweeter 1C2S deal PRC offered TW where they got to keep political system and even their own military got taken off the table a few years ago. Political reality is PRC T1 is pretty comfy now, mainlanders don't see TW/HK as "betters" like in 80s/90s, there's no appetite for PRC domestic audience to give concessions to TW or HK to have disproportionate influence over mainland with less than 1% of the population, especially when their system isn't viewed as particularly functional. Apart from baizuos, the amount of PRC who looks at TW politics and think "I want that" is smaller than than most democracygud crowd thinks.
  - worstspotgain 2y ago
    I don't think this has to be necessarily sold as the PRC giving concessions to TW. It's basically a linear combination, where alpha is being ramped from 0 to 1: current_state = alpha * one_country + (1 - alpha) * two_countries Neither the PRC nor TW benefits from war if it can be avoided. This is a much better alternative.
    - maxglute 2y ago
      That's potentially something for next gen TWers to decide, too much anti PRC sentiment on TW right now. Need a multiple more election cycles before TW get jaded with (still relatively nascent) democracy, already seeing that this election cycle. But will ultimately take next gen, assuming there's enough numbers with TWs bad demographics for new voting cohorts going through TW economic stagnation (assuming it continues) and look at next gen HKers who are basically fine post NSL, and doing well integrating with mainland, and see perhaps option not so bad to war. Even then it's a stretch, and that's decades out, with soft 2049 deadline. The problem is as PRC military modernizes and regional force balances shift more in PRC favour, I see them benefitting massively from war, especially broader one with US+co. PRC can live with taking TW (by whichever means), but what PRC really wants is US out of backyard, and TW is prime casus belli for participating in one, or rather not avoiding one if US intervenes. Longer US tries to contain, dance away from strategic ambiguity, the more perverse PRC incentives get.
- tivert 2y ago
  > An EU-style arrangement seems ideal in the medium term. It lets Taiwan have a positive long-term influence on Chinese politics, while preventing HK-style crackdowns in the other direction. That's a total nonstarter though. The CCP is not going to subordinate itself and cede power to some EU-like supranational authority that it doesn't utterly dominate, and it has also demonstrated how much its own guarantees are worth (with the HK crackdown).
  - worstspotgain 2y ago
    Obviously China would utterly dominate the super-national authority due to proportional representation. The point is to move towards unification while Taiwan remains a sovereign country in the interim. Taiwan becomes more of a part of China over time, while hopefully China's politics become more like Taiwan's.
    - tivert 2y ago
      > ...while hopefully China's politics become more like Taiwan's. That's an utter fantasy, especially by the mechanism you propose. To be absolutely blunt: your proposal strikes me as the kind of thing a no-nothing outsider would propose, someone who has no skin in the game and would suffer none of the consequences, and whose ignorance makes a solution seem easy. I mean, FFS, (assuming your an American) would you propose a supra-national union between the US and China with "proportional representation" (meaning China dominates the US) and a mere hope that China's politics become "more like" democracy?
      - worstspotgain 2y ago
        Uh, no. As I said up top, I didn't come up with the idea: In the 2000 presidential election, independent candidate James Soon proposed a European Union-style relation with mainland China (this was echoed by Hsu Hsin-liang in 2004) along with a non-aggression pact. In the 2004 presidential election, Lien Chan proposed a confederation-style relationship. [1] It seems to me that maybe your dismissal of the CCP making concessions towards unification in general fits the notion of a "know-nothing outsider" much more than what I wrote. Both China and Taiwan have long held that there is only "One China" and that they eventually belong together. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_unification https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_unification
- jmclnx 2y ago
  No it won't, China will eventually impose its policies on Taiwan. It is just a matter of time. What China did to HK was blatantly breaking a treaty with the UK. Do you think for the minute Taiwan does this EU thing the same will not eventually happen ?
  - worstspotgain 2y ago
    In the union-style arrangements, Taiwan retains its military and thus its negotiating power. It's basically a big de-escalation from the crisis we have now and a major step towards their future together in "One China." Unlike HK, it's done gradually and at arm's length.
skhunted 2y ago
I do not understand Xi’s abandonment of Deng’s wise policies. The One China, Two Systems approach was working and had it gone well may have induced Taiwan to similarly integrate with the PRC. Now, I doubt that will ever happen.
- worstspotgain 2y ago
  Can't say I understand it either, but I'm not Chinese and I think there are some cultural differences here. Politically, I think there's a tendency to overestimate and overreact (e.g. Tiananmen Square) and a tendency to get irritated easily. Again, fertile ground for diplomacy.
- mensetmanusman 2y ago
  Communism is a hellavea ideological drug.
- tim333 2y ago
  Xi seems your standard dictator who wants to control everything - HK, Taiwan, south china sea, overseas critics and so on. It's a shame we don't still have Deng.
maxglute 2y ago
There are different shades of net negative from Being HK, who are now happily partying in Shenzhen, or being Gaza.
EasyMark 2y ago
Right, CCP will never let democracy flourish “inside its borders” it’s much too dangerous to them, even in a territory, or even a large metro area. Liberty is in diametric contrast to them controlling every aspect of their citizens’ lives

The obvious counterpoint to this argument is what happened in Hong Kong. A diplomatic resolution seems unlikely to have a net-positive outcome for Taiwan under the current CCP regime.

worstspotgain 2y ago

Taiwan has obviously been watching the Hong Kong integration closely. Had it gone much better, Taiwan would have probably agreed to something similar. Frankly I think they were actually expecting much worse. An EU-style arrangement seems ideal in the medium term. It lets Taiwan have a positive long-term influence on Chinese politics, while preventing HK-style crackdowns in the other direction.

pyuser583 2y ago
How does an “EU” style arrangement make sense between two countries, one of which is extremely large the other extremely small?
- worstspotgain 2y ago
  It makes sense because it functions as a bridge to eventual reunification. And the EU includes e.g. Luxembourg and Germany. The arrangement transfers some matters to unified control while retaining country sovereignty.
  - bobthepanda 2y ago
    The thing is that in EU they are two of 27. Being 1 of 4 is not so good, particularly when 1 is so big and the other two (Macau, HK) are defanged, and a federal devolution to the provinces of China is not in the cards.
    - worstspotgain 2y ago
      Well no one is doubting that the federal portion of the framework would be mainland-dominated, just like Germany has way more seats in the EU parliament than Luxembourg. But Taiwanese democracy (and military control) would be unaffected.
      - bobthepanda 2y ago
        1. There is no scenario in which the PRC would relinquish military control 2. Germany makes up 18% of the EU’s population. The PRC makes up 98% of the combined populations of Taiwan, PRC, HK and Macau. That is quite the difference in lopsided power balance.
        worstspotgain 2y ago
        The PRC wouldn't have to relinquish military control, or really any control for that matter. The "Union" is basically the portion of control that Taiwan has already ceded to China. The key is that Taiwan retains the rest for the time being.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
maxglute 2y ago
From PRC perspective, HK integration went poorly for PRC interests because HK failed to implement national security law on their own (which btw they were suppose to pre 50 year handover) - they simply never took the One Country part of One Country Two Systems seriously. And TBH neither will TW with how much culture diverged over generations, hence the sweeter 1C2S deal PRC offered TW where they got to keep political system and even their own military got taken off the table a few years ago. Political reality is PRC T1 is pretty comfy now, mainlanders don't see TW/HK as "betters" like in 80s/90s, there's no appetite for PRC domestic audience to give concessions to TW or HK to have disproportionate influence over mainland with less than 1% of the population, especially when their system isn't viewed as particularly functional. Apart from baizuos, the amount of PRC who looks at TW politics and think "I want that" is smaller than than most democracygud crowd thinks.
- worstspotgain 2y ago
  I don't think this has to be necessarily sold as the PRC giving concessions to TW. It's basically a linear combination, where alpha is being ramped from 0 to 1: current_state = alpha * one_country + (1 - alpha) * two_countries Neither the PRC nor TW benefits from war if it can be avoided. This is a much better alternative.
  - maxglute 2y ago
    That's potentially something for next gen TWers to decide, too much anti PRC sentiment on TW right now. Need a multiple more election cycles before TW get jaded with (still relatively nascent) democracy, already seeing that this election cycle. But will ultimately take next gen, assuming there's enough numbers with TWs bad demographics for new voting cohorts going through TW economic stagnation (assuming it continues) and look at next gen HKers who are basically fine post NSL, and doing well integrating with mainland, and see perhaps option not so bad to war. Even then it's a stretch, and that's decades out, with soft 2049 deadline. The problem is as PRC military modernizes and regional force balances shift more in PRC favour, I see them benefitting massively from war, especially broader one with US+co. PRC can live with taking TW (by whichever means), but what PRC really wants is US out of backyard, and TW is prime casus belli for participating in one, or rather not avoiding one if US intervenes. Longer US tries to contain, dance away from strategic ambiguity, the more perverse PRC incentives get.
tivert 2y ago
> An EU-style arrangement seems ideal in the medium term. It lets Taiwan have a positive long-term influence on Chinese politics, while preventing HK-style crackdowns in the other direction. That's a total nonstarter though. The CCP is not going to subordinate itself and cede power to some EU-like supranational authority that it doesn't utterly dominate, and it has also demonstrated how much its own guarantees are worth (with the HK crackdown).
- worstspotgain 2y ago
  Obviously China would utterly dominate the super-national authority due to proportional representation. The point is to move towards unification while Taiwan remains a sovereign country in the interim. Taiwan becomes more of a part of China over time, while hopefully China's politics become more like Taiwan's.
  - tivert 2y ago
    > ...while hopefully China's politics become more like Taiwan's. That's an utter fantasy, especially by the mechanism you propose. To be absolutely blunt: your proposal strikes me as the kind of thing a no-nothing outsider would propose, someone who has no skin in the game and would suffer none of the consequences, and whose ignorance makes a solution seem easy. I mean, FFS, (assuming your an American) would you propose a supra-national union between the US and China with "proportional representation" (meaning China dominates the US) and a mere hope that China's politics become "more like" democracy?
    - worstspotgain 2y ago
      Uh, no. As I said up top, I didn't come up with the idea: In the 2000 presidential election, independent candidate James Soon proposed a European Union-style relation with mainland China (this was echoed by Hsu Hsin-liang in 2004) along with a non-aggression pact. In the 2004 presidential election, Lien Chan proposed a confederation-style relationship. [1] It seems to me that maybe your dismissal of the CCP making concessions towards unification in general fits the notion of a "know-nothing outsider" much more than what I wrote. Both China and Taiwan have long held that there is only "One China" and that they eventually belong together. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_unification https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_unification
jmclnx 2y ago
No it won't, China will eventually impose its policies on Taiwan. It is just a matter of time. What China did to HK was blatantly breaking a treaty with the UK. Do you think for the minute Taiwan does this EU thing the same will not eventually happen ?
- worstspotgain 2y ago
  In the union-style arrangements, Taiwan retains its military and thus its negotiating power. It's basically a big de-escalation from the crisis we have now and a major step towards their future together in "One China." Unlike HK, it's done gradually and at arm's length.

skhunted 2y ago

I do not understand Xi’s abandonment of Deng’s wise policies. The One China, Two Systems approach was working and had it gone well may have induced Taiwan to similarly integrate with the PRC. Now, I doubt that will ever happen.

worstspotgain 2y ago
Can't say I understand it either, but I'm not Chinese and I think there are some cultural differences here. Politically, I think there's a tendency to overestimate and overreact (e.g. Tiananmen Square) and a tendency to get irritated easily. Again, fertile ground for diplomacy.
mensetmanusman 2y ago
Communism is a hellavea ideological drug.
tim333 2y ago
Xi seems your standard dictator who wants to control everything - HK, Taiwan, south china sea, overseas critics and so on. It's a shame we don't still have Deng.

maxglute 2y ago

There are different shades of net negative from Being HK, who are now happily partying in Shenzhen, or being Gaza.

EasyMark 2y ago

Right, CCP will never let democracy flourish “inside its borders” it’s much too dangerous to them, even in a territory, or even a large metro area. Liberty is in diametric contrast to them controlling every aspect of their citizens’ lives