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There are so many more possibilities. The entire topic of the Fermi paradox is a massive tower of assumptions and hidden variables for which we have no informat

by api 2y ago

There are so many more possibilities. The entire topic of the Fermi paradox is a massive tower of assumptions and hidden variables for which we have no information. We don’t even know the paradox is real since we haven’t explored our own solar system enough to rule out aliens or artifacts of their visits in our back yard, nor can we rule out advanced observers intentionally not revealing themselves for any number of rational reasons. There could be an abandoned underground alien base on the Moon and we’d have no clue. We have barely gone anywhere. If we hit, say, the level of development in The Expanse and still find nothing (no protomolecule haha) then maybe we can say there is definitely a paradox. There’s also the assumption that there is a single discrete big and dramatic great filter. That’s the Hollywood version. In reality there could just be a continuous probability of failure due to any number of events whether endogenous or external spread across billions of years that amounts to a great filter. The probability per day of “biosphere failure” or some other condition that dooms a potential spacefaring intelligence doesn’t need to be high to amount to a probability near 1.0 over geological time scales. Let’s say given we are sending our probes and capsules we are probably at least 50% of the way there. If the cumulative great filter were near 1.0 probability of failure this would imply a 50/50 probability of our success. Those are of course made up round numbers just to illustrate how that would work. We have no way to know what the actual numbers are because we have a sample size of one. The whole thing is just speculation until we have more actual data.

MattPalmer1086 2y ago
Well, the Fermi Paradox is misnamed because it isn't a paradox at all. It's just the observation that we don't see evidence of other life out there, and wondering why not - for which there are lots of possible explanations. As you say, we don't have enough data to know one way or another, but even when we do, there will still be no paradox.
- layer8 2y ago
  The sheer number of stars in the galaxy and the absence of evidence of other life are in apparent contradiction — hence a paradox. A paradox doesn’t necessarily mean a hard logical contradiction.
  - mr_mitm 2y ago
    But this is not even a soft contradiction, or even an apparent contradiction. It's a problem with too many possible solutions so we don't know which one to pick. A paradox appears to have no solutions (until it's solved).
    - layer8 2y ago
      Given the number of stars, you would expect evidence of other life if life isn’t exceedingly rare. But we have no particular explanation why it would be exceedingly rare, and given the abundance of life on Earth one wouldn’t expect it. So the fact that we see no evidence runs against our expectations. Nonintuitive observations, where the observation doesn’t provide any explanation, already counts as a paradox.
      - odyssey7 2y ago
        Well, it’s not a paradox if you assume you’re special. What else would you expect from the species that named itself “sapiens?”
  - api 2y ago
    A better term would just be “mystery.” If you assume life is at least somewhat likely and do some simple math we should see evidence of aliens. We don’t so something is either wrong in the assumed probabilities or there are unknown unknowns. My favorite hypothesis is that we are early. Due to low metallicity in the early universe it’s possible that advanced life only became likely “recently” (as in the last few billion years) and we are part of the first crop. We may be an early example in the first crop because our planet is particularly friendly to advanced stable life, so maybe a bit of rare Earth mixed in. Most other biospheres might be more hostile and take longer to produce anything capable of space flight. We don’t see star travelers all over the place because for the most part it’s too soon. There might be a few early birds out there but few intelligences are that advanced yet.

by api 2y ago

MattPalmer1086 2y ago

Well, the Fermi Paradox is misnamed because it isn't a paradox at all. It's just the observation that we don't see evidence of other life out there, and wondering why not - for which there are lots of possible explanations. As you say, we don't have enough data to know one way or another, but even when we do, there will still be no paradox.

layer8 2y ago
The sheer number of stars in the galaxy and the absence of evidence of other life are in apparent contradiction — hence a paradox. A paradox doesn’t necessarily mean a hard logical contradiction.
- mr_mitm 2y ago
  But this is not even a soft contradiction, or even an apparent contradiction. It's a problem with too many possible solutions so we don't know which one to pick. A paradox appears to have no solutions (until it's solved).
  - layer8 2y ago
    Given the number of stars, you would expect evidence of other life if life isn’t exceedingly rare. But we have no particular explanation why it would be exceedingly rare, and given the abundance of life on Earth one wouldn’t expect it. So the fact that we see no evidence runs against our expectations. Nonintuitive observations, where the observation doesn’t provide any explanation, already counts as a paradox.
    - odyssey7 2y ago
      Well, it’s not a paradox if you assume you’re special. What else would you expect from the species that named itself “sapiens?”
- api 2y ago
  A better term would just be “mystery.” If you assume life is at least somewhat likely and do some simple math we should see evidence of aliens. We don’t so something is either wrong in the assumed probabilities or there are unknown unknowns. My favorite hypothesis is that we are early. Due to low metallicity in the early universe it’s possible that advanced life only became likely “recently” (as in the last few billion years) and we are part of the first crop. We may be an early example in the first crop because our planet is particularly friendly to advanced stable life, so maybe a bit of rare Earth mixed in. Most other biospheres might be more hostile and take longer to produce anything capable of space flight. We don’t see star travelers all over the place because for the most part it’s too soon. There might be a few early birds out there but few intelligences are that advanced yet.