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> it's obvious that humans are not good at this task and that computers will eventually make roads safer than ever. It’s obvious that SOME humans are bad at t

by tw04 2y ago

> it's obvious that humans are not good at this task and that computers will eventually make roads safer than ever. It’s obvious that SOME humans are bad at this task. It’s not at all obvious that a computer will ever be better. I’ve yet to see a single example of a computer that doesn’t trip all over itself on a snowy road, or lock up when someone intentionally marks up the roadway with graffiti that a human wouldn’t think twice about.

The_Colonel 2y ago
For FSD to be a net benefit, it only has to be better than an average driver. It's quite possible that FSD will be rather used by below average drivers (with excellent drivers opting to still drive themselves), further increasing the benefit.
- 1oooqooq 2y ago
  that's a silly fallacy pushed by musk marketing. quit propagating it. if the best driver in the world dies because they used FSD, then fsd is the cause so it must be as good as the best driver in the world to have not killed that human. q.e.d.
- hugh-avherald 2y ago
  Unfortunately, below average drivers do not always have the self-awareness or financial means to opt in to a state-of-the-art vehicle.
- smugma 2y ago
  It’s also quite possible that worse than average drivers prefer to drive and better than average drivers prefer to use FSD, which might decrease overall safety. This could be due to Dunning-Kruger, age based trust of new things, socioeconomics, etc.
- tw04 2y ago
  Except in most scenarios another human can anticipate what even a bad driver is going to do. Meanwhile FSD still slams on the brakes when it sees a tree shadow moving across the road because it can't differentiate between a shadow and a real object. We are a LONG ways off from FSD being better than the average driver. Anyone saying otherwise is apparently living in the Bay Area or one of the places an influencer lives that Tesla tries to game the system, because it is trash everywhere else. It still can't handle navigating a road that has the option to continue straight or go around a curve which even a novice driver can navigate without pause.
- dagw 2y ago
  used by below average drivers (with excellent drivers opting to still drive themselves) How to I objectively test if I'm a good enough driver to be better off without FSD?
robxorb 2y ago
You could level similarly-contrived criticisms against humans where machines could do better too. Of course there will be edge-cases either way - the question is the overall balance, which tips further towards machines each day. In the future, vehicles could have their FSD augmented by direct comms with each other, in a trustless way. If the entire traffic network ended up interconnected, it'd behave as a single system, approaching 100% self-awareness. Obviously, no ordinary human drivers could get anywhere near that level of situational awareness, nor ability to coordinate in parallel. All they have is a small cone of vision/hearing, a bit of sensor augmentation, and little else.
- krger 2y ago
  > You could level similarly-contrived criticisms against humans where machines could do better too. You’re not even going to build an actual strawman before claiming to have knocked it down?
- tw04 2y ago
  >In the future, vehicles could have their FSD augmented by direct comms with each other, in a trustless way. If the entire traffic network ended up interconnected, it'd behave as a single system, approaching 100% self-awareness. We can't get Amazon and Microsoft to agree on a single object-storage standard, and you think you're going to get every major auto manufacturer, including ones regulated by opposing nations to agree on an automobile communication standard? That who controls? And it won't be considered a national security risk to allow a foreign manufacturer to be able to potentially gridlock the entire traffic pattern(s) of a nation? >All they have is a small cone of vision/hearing, a bit of sensor augmentation, and little else. Which literally no amount of compute power has been able to replicate or surpass to date. Right....
  - robxorb 2y ago
    I'm not suggesting next year, or even next decade. But it will happen. You think profit-driven, hierarchical, centralised, closed and proprietary non-interoperable systems are our future? Novel idea! Best of luck with it.
snarfy 2y ago
The problem is when you balance the humans that are remarkable drivers with those that are terrible, the average trends towards terrible. Any kind of assistance for the terrible drivers would be helpful.

by tw04 2y ago

The_Colonel 2y ago

For FSD to be a net benefit, it only has to be better than an average driver. It's quite possible that FSD will be rather used by below average drivers (with excellent drivers opting to still drive themselves), further increasing the benefit.

1oooqooq 2y ago
that's a silly fallacy pushed by musk marketing. quit propagating it. if the best driver in the world dies because they used FSD, then fsd is the cause so it must be as good as the best driver in the world to have not killed that human. q.e.d.
hugh-avherald 2y ago
Unfortunately, below average drivers do not always have the self-awareness or financial means to opt in to a state-of-the-art vehicle.
smugma 2y ago
It’s also quite possible that worse than average drivers prefer to drive and better than average drivers prefer to use FSD, which might decrease overall safety. This could be due to Dunning-Kruger, age based trust of new things, socioeconomics, etc.
tw04 2y ago
Except in most scenarios another human can anticipate what even a bad driver is going to do. Meanwhile FSD still slams on the brakes when it sees a tree shadow moving across the road because it can't differentiate between a shadow and a real object. We are a LONG ways off from FSD being better than the average driver. Anyone saying otherwise is apparently living in the Bay Area or one of the places an influencer lives that Tesla tries to game the system, because it is trash everywhere else. It still can't handle navigating a road that has the option to continue straight or go around a curve which even a novice driver can navigate without pause.
dagw 2y ago
used by below average drivers (with excellent drivers opting to still drive themselves) How to I objectively test if I'm a good enough driver to be better off without FSD?

robxorb 2y ago

You could level similarly-contrived criticisms against humans where machines could do better too. Of course there will be edge-cases either way - the question is the overall balance, which tips further towards machines each day. In the future, vehicles could have their FSD augmented by direct comms with each other, in a trustless way. If the entire traffic network ended up interconnected, it'd behave as a single system, approaching 100% self-awareness. Obviously, no ordinary human drivers could get anywhere near that level of situational awareness, nor ability to coordinate in parallel. All they have is a small cone of vision/hearing, a bit of sensor augmentation, and little else.

krger 2y ago
> You could level similarly-contrived criticisms against humans where machines could do better too. You’re not even going to build an actual strawman before claiming to have knocked it down?
tw04 2y ago
>In the future, vehicles could have their FSD augmented by direct comms with each other, in a trustless way. If the entire traffic network ended up interconnected, it'd behave as a single system, approaching 100% self-awareness. We can't get Amazon and Microsoft to agree on a single object-storage standard, and you think you're going to get every major auto manufacturer, including ones regulated by opposing nations to agree on an automobile communication standard? That who controls? And it won't be considered a national security risk to allow a foreign manufacturer to be able to potentially gridlock the entire traffic pattern(s) of a nation? >All they have is a small cone of vision/hearing, a bit of sensor augmentation, and little else. Which literally no amount of compute power has been able to replicate or surpass to date. Right....
- robxorb 2y ago
  I'm not suggesting next year, or even next decade. But it will happen. You think profit-driven, hierarchical, centralised, closed and proprietary non-interoperable systems are our future? Novel idea! Best of luck with it.

snarfy 2y ago

The problem is when you balance the humans that are remarkable drivers with those that are terrible, the average trends towards terrible. Any kind of assistance for the terrible drivers would be helpful.