5 ms·

What I don't see is discussion of the longterm future of the program. This specific unit? Sure. It would be higher risk to propose crewed return in it, compared

by ggm 2y ago

What I don't see is discussion of the longterm future of the program. This specific unit? Sure. It would be higher risk to propose crewed return in it, compared to using another craft. Not that using another craft is entirely risk free given the issues of suiting up for the return when you were issued kit for the other space craft, but I would think in risk terms thats lower risk. I am more interested what this does to a programme mired in cost overruns, delays and failure. In an election year. Mechanically, you would think this problem with helium leaks is fixable. Politically, this may be the straw which breaks the camels back.

TheCleric 2y ago
If SpaceX has to step in to get the astronauts, Starliner will be scrapped and written off. Boeing has no benefit of the doubt right now. No one will assume this is a singular incident, and will be viewed with all of Boeing's other troubles in mind. Boeing needed this to go without a hitch, because they aren't trustworthy in the public's mind and NASA can't be seen as continuing to put lives in danger after the retirement of the space shuttle program due to safety reasons.
- ceejayoz 2y ago
  It's probably more satisfying to NASA to not scrap the program, given Boeing is on the hook for futher costs.
- tekla 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - joe_inferno 2y ago
    I mean, the person you're responding to does so…
  - mrpippy 2y ago
    Here’s what Eric Berger wrote at Ars Technica yesterday: “If NASA defers to its fallback plan, flying on Dragon, it may spell the end of the Starliner program. During the development and testing of Starliner, the company has already lost $1.6 billion. Reflying a crew test flight mission, which likely would be necessary should Starliner return autonomously, would cost much more. Boeing might opt to cancel Starliner and leave NASA with just a single provider of crew transportation. That would be painful for both NASA and Boeing.”
dontlikeyoueith 2y ago
Until Boeing executives start going to prison for their criminal malfeasance, all of their projects should be scrapped.
- tekla 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - djbusby 2y ago
    Many times good engineering is over-ridden by management. The decision makers should take the hit.
    - mrguyorama 2y ago
      Engineers who are unwilling or unable to say "No" and have it stick when it comes to safety are not engineers! It's one reason why I abhor programmers who call themselves "Software Engineers". If you don't get to make the go/no-go FINAL call, you are not an engineer.
      - kamaal 2y ago
        Nonsense. Not every thing is a individual quality slippage. Most of the times its also quantity slippage. Under hiring, under investing in quality, quality checks and other processes on a long term causes these problems. Notice engineering has no say in budgets, hiring numbers, time to delivery etc. Managements making all the wrong decisions over years, and then blaming a dozen engineers for not working themselves to death to cover it is not something that will sell in serious discussions.
  - bitcharmer 2y ago
    Found the MBA! You guys are truly something else:)
fnord77 2y ago
it's a shame because I imagine a bunch of otherwise good engineers are going to lose their jobs and their reputations
- UberFly 2y ago
  Many who probably should be fired be will be retained due to the union.
asadotzler 2y ago
Boeing doesn't know what's failing with the thrusters. They haven't been able to give NASA a root cause so even though they got 4 of the 5 anomalous thrusters working again, who knows what could fail on the return flight. Boeing should bail and NASA will grumble at the sunk cost of their failed pursuit of redundancy but everyone will be better off. When the ISS had at least 10 years left, paying the increasing costs for Boeing's failures might have been worth it. With only about 5 years left now for crew transport, SpaceX can build one or two more Crew Dragons and cover the load with a vehicle that's well-proved and far less costly than Starliner. If Boeing is forced to re-do this test, if NASA calls CFT a failure and Boeing has to eat the cost of re-doing it, I think Boeing bails. The 5 flights they might still get paid for wouldn't be worth it after the cost of another test. If NASA has the astronauts return on Dragon, Starliner is cooked regardless of what Boeing wants and Boeing wears that black eye for NASA and even some of its DOD supporters. I think Boeing wants out and NASA's trying to hold onto them. This test isn't about Starliner so much as it is about how NASA and Boeing wind down this program.
- verzali 2y ago
  I've heard Boeing has been looking for a way out for a while now and it's NASA that is pushing them to go ahead with Starliner. A lot of people at NASA don't like relying on SpaceX for everything. Also it's not really certain the ISS will actually be terminated in 2031, NASA has said it could probably be extended, and in theory the plan is then to switch to private stations, which a capsule like Starliner would be able to serve.
  - saturn8601 2y ago
    >A lot of people at NASA don't like relying on SpaceX for everything. Can you blame them? Just today it came out Musk was funding an organization that had set up fake voter registration websites in swing states to collect voter data. In EVs there are many options to avoid Musk and his products. In Space there is nothing. Wonder if it would be possible to create a new space entity: you take half the funds given to Boeing's program, stand up new company and poach SpaceX employees with extremely aggressive offers. He has nothing without his employees's sacrifices. Its amazing that he manages to retain such great talent while continually treating them like crap(from everyone I spoke to and read about it is true).
nordsieck 2y ago
> What I don't see is discussion of the longterm future of the program. I think it depends on what you consider "long term". Starliner is being certified to fly on the Atlas V. But ULA has discontinued that rocket because the first stage engines are manufactured in Russia. Boeing has 6 more rockets - one for each of the operational flights that NASA has contracted to service the ISS, but once those are used up, Boeing would have to recertify the capsule on a different rocket (presumably ULA's new Vulcan rocket). Presumably this recertification effort would be much easier since both the rocket and (presumably by that point) Starliner would be operating successfully, so it'd largely be a matter of analysis and other paperwork. But it would still take considerable time and expense.

by ggm 2y ago

TheCleric 2y ago

If SpaceX has to step in to get the astronauts, Starliner will be scrapped and written off. Boeing has no benefit of the doubt right now. No one will assume this is a singular incident, and will be viewed with all of Boeing's other troubles in mind. Boeing needed this to go without a hitch, because they aren't trustworthy in the public's mind and NASA can't be seen as continuing to put lives in danger after the retirement of the space shuttle program due to safety reasons.

ceejayoz 2y ago
It's probably more satisfying to NASA to not scrap the program, given Boeing is on the hook for futher costs.
tekla 2y ago
[flagged]
- joe_inferno 2y ago
  I mean, the person you're responding to does so…
- mrpippy 2y ago
  Here’s what Eric Berger wrote at Ars Technica yesterday: “If NASA defers to its fallback plan, flying on Dragon, it may spell the end of the Starliner program. During the development and testing of Starliner, the company has already lost $1.6 billion. Reflying a crew test flight mission, which likely would be necessary should Starliner return autonomously, would cost much more. Boeing might opt to cancel Starliner and leave NASA with just a single provider of crew transportation. That would be painful for both NASA and Boeing.”

dontlikeyoueith 2y ago

Until Boeing executives start going to prison for their criminal malfeasance, all of their projects should be scrapped.

tekla 2y ago
[flagged]
- djbusby 2y ago
  Many times good engineering is over-ridden by management. The decision makers should take the hit.
  - mrguyorama 2y ago
    Engineers who are unwilling or unable to say "No" and have it stick when it comes to safety are not engineers! It's one reason why I abhor programmers who call themselves "Software Engineers". If you don't get to make the go/no-go FINAL call, you are not an engineer.
    - kamaal 2y ago
      Nonsense. Not every thing is a individual quality slippage. Most of the times its also quantity slippage. Under hiring, under investing in quality, quality checks and other processes on a long term causes these problems. Notice engineering has no say in budgets, hiring numbers, time to delivery etc. Managements making all the wrong decisions over years, and then blaming a dozen engineers for not working themselves to death to cover it is not something that will sell in serious discussions.
- bitcharmer 2y ago
  Found the MBA! You guys are truly something else:)

fnord77 2y ago

it's a shame because I imagine a bunch of otherwise good engineers are going to lose their jobs and their reputations

UberFly 2y ago
Many who probably should be fired be will be retained due to the union.

asadotzler 2y ago

Boeing doesn't know what's failing with the thrusters. They haven't been able to give NASA a root cause so even though they got 4 of the 5 anomalous thrusters working again, who knows what could fail on the return flight. Boeing should bail and NASA will grumble at the sunk cost of their failed pursuit of redundancy but everyone will be better off. When the ISS had at least 10 years left, paying the increasing costs for Boeing's failures might have been worth it. With only about 5 years left now for crew transport, SpaceX can build one or two more Crew Dragons and cover the load with a vehicle that's well-proved and far less costly than Starliner. If Boeing is forced to re-do this test, if NASA calls CFT a failure and Boeing has to eat the cost of re-doing it, I think Boeing bails. The 5 flights they might still get paid for wouldn't be worth it after the cost of another test. If NASA has the astronauts return on Dragon, Starliner is cooked regardless of what Boeing wants and Boeing wears that black eye for NASA and even some of its DOD supporters. I think Boeing wants out and NASA's trying to hold onto them. This test isn't about Starliner so much as it is about how NASA and Boeing wind down this program.

verzali 2y ago
I've heard Boeing has been looking for a way out for a while now and it's NASA that is pushing them to go ahead with Starliner. A lot of people at NASA don't like relying on SpaceX for everything. Also it's not really certain the ISS will actually be terminated in 2031, NASA has said it could probably be extended, and in theory the plan is then to switch to private stations, which a capsule like Starliner would be able to serve.
- saturn8601 2y ago
  >A lot of people at NASA don't like relying on SpaceX for everything. Can you blame them? Just today it came out Musk was funding an organization that had set up fake voter registration websites in swing states to collect voter data. In EVs there are many options to avoid Musk and his products. In Space there is nothing. Wonder if it would be possible to create a new space entity: you take half the funds given to Boeing's program, stand up new company and poach SpaceX employees with extremely aggressive offers. He has nothing without his employees's sacrifices. Its amazing that he manages to retain such great talent while continually treating them like crap(from everyone I spoke to and read about it is true).

nordsieck 2y ago

> What I don't see is discussion of the longterm future of the program. I think it depends on what you consider "long term". Starliner is being certified to fly on the Atlas V. But ULA has discontinued that rocket because the first stage engines are manufactured in Russia. Boeing has 6 more rockets - one for each of the operational flights that NASA has contracted to service the ISS, but once those are used up, Boeing would have to recertify the capsule on a different rocket (presumably ULA's new Vulcan rocket). Presumably this recertification effort would be much easier since both the rocket and (presumably by that point) Starliner would be operating successfully, so it'd largely be a matter of analysis and other paperwork. But it would still take considerable time and expense.