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I dont dispute the incredible capability, I'm simply concerned that true value creation that is being wildly overblown. Your 2nd example is a handy one to pick

I dont dispute the incredible capability, I'm simply concerned that true value creation that is being wildly overblown. Your 2nd example is a handy one to pick through. What % of your time is spent writing code compared to other work tasks? How much of that time did Copilot save? How much time do you have to spend fixing and validating (be honest, as if your quarterly bonus depends on it)? Whats your hourly rate? Whats the real cost of the high quality, cutting edge LLM (not the VC subsidized 'price'). And then.. does that mean you get to go to lunch early or didnt have to stay late? (no savings to your company). Or did it knock out a week's worth of work? What prevents Copilot from taking over your role completely ( I doubt it is anywhere close to that, you likely do a lot more than type out code, still requires the correct input and output validation, understanding goals with nuance and uncertainty) So then in real dollars, it's a useful, potentially very expensive tool. which is great. Is it $48B great (for google)? Maybe! But thats a big bet! I admit I do not understand the concept of researchers programming their models to be more accurate as questions progress from easy to esoteric, from 2+2=4 to "Should I avoid drinking corn syrup?" (ahem advertisers would like a word!) "which religion is better, A or B?" I dont see a way for AI to be unbiased and clean, and therefore trustworthy and useful at face value.

IshKebab 2y ago
> What % of your time is spent writing code compared to other work tasks? Probably 50%? > How much of that time did Copilot save? Unfortunately I can't use it at work, but I use it in my free time and I'd say it increases productivity by something like 10-50% depending on the task. 10% is more common of course, but given how expensive developer time is a Copilot subscription is worth it if it increases my programming productivity by like 0.5% which it easily exceeds. > And then.. does that mean you get to go to lunch early or didnt have to stay late? (no savings to your company). Or did it knock out a week's worth of work? My company would reap most of the benefit because they are paying me hourly. > What prevents Copilot from taking over your role completely ( I doubt it is anywhere close to that, Yeah basically it's nowhere near smart enough. Needs several orders of magnitude more intelligence before it could fully replace me. At that point I think society will have bigger problems because it will have replaced 90% of white collar jobs in general; not just programming. > I dont see a way for AI to be unbiased and clean, and therefore trustworthy and useful at face value. This also eliminates humans.
- ethagknight 2y ago
  All great points, thanks. > Needs several orders of magnitude more intelligence before it could fully replace me. I think this is true for many applications of AI, where everyone assumes everyone elses job is screwed, but the expert looks under the hood and says 'well isn't that cute. delete it and start over.'

IshKebab 2y ago

> What % of your time is spent writing code compared to other work tasks? Probably 50%? > How much of that time did Copilot save? Unfortunately I can't use it at work, but I use it in my free time and I'd say it increases productivity by something like 10-50% depending on the task. 10% is more common of course, but given how expensive developer time is a Copilot subscription is worth it if it increases my programming productivity by like 0.5% which it easily exceeds. > And then.. does that mean you get to go to lunch early or didnt have to stay late? (no savings to your company). Or did it knock out a week's worth of work? My company would reap most of the benefit because they are paying me hourly. > What prevents Copilot from taking over your role completely ( I doubt it is anywhere close to that, Yeah basically it's nowhere near smart enough. Needs several orders of magnitude more intelligence before it could fully replace me. At that point I think society will have bigger problems because it will have replaced 90% of white collar jobs in general; not just programming. > I dont see a way for AI to be unbiased and clean, and therefore trustworthy and useful at face value. This also eliminates humans.

ethagknight 2y ago
All great points, thanks. > Needs several orders of magnitude more intelligence before it could fully replace me. I think this is true for many applications of AI, where everyone assumes everyone elses job is screwed, but the expert looks under the hood and says 'well isn't that cute. delete it and start over.'