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Even the Western intelligence agencies do not believe that Russia has blown up Nordstream. The closest narrative they produced were "independent Ukrainians usi

by aklfsi 2y ago

Even the Western intelligence agencies do not believe that Russia has blown up Nordstream. The closest narrative they produced were "independent Ukrainians using a sailboat", after which they closed the investigation. So, whose style is Nordstream? Under Reagan, another Russian-German pipeline was sabotaged. It is of course possible that Russia did this particular one, but it is not Russia's style. Why now and not in 2022? Why don't they cut Internet cables? Why would they do it when they know there will just be a backlash?

cyberpunk 2y ago
I thought it was pretty well understood to be the Brits who did it, with the blessing of the US. Of course, we will never know.
Yoric 2y ago
Well, blowing up Nordstream was clearly against Russian interests, so yeah, nobody believe that the Russian government did. This one? Anything that messes up with the credibility of NATO governments (and France is one of the pillars of NATO) could help Russia. Which of course doesn't prove that it is Russia, either.
- ptjahb 2y ago
  That is not the case. The initial Western reaction in the weeks after the event was: - Russia did it as a false flag operation to sow distrust between NATO members. - Russia did it because the long term contracts for Nordstream 1 required them to supply cheap gas, whereas they'd get market prices for the remaining pipeline of Nordstream 2. It is remarkable that all Western agencies have backed off from both claims.
  - kagdf 2y ago
    Initial reaction (of course only one side always has to source their assertions, while the people calling for a nuclear retaliation do not): https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/qa-nord-stream-gas-sabotage-whos-being-blamed-why-2022-09-30/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/qa-nord-stream-gas-sabo... Plenty of people claiming that Russia did it.
  - Yoric 2y ago
    Sure, initial reactions were all over the place. But that doesn't detract from what I wrote.
- dralley 2y ago
  It's not "clearly" against Russian interests given that Russia was already withholding supply with a myriad of various transparent excuses at the time, and using their German-based but Russian-owned companies to prevent Germany from stockpiling natural gas (they owned the storage), which ultimately resulted in Germany nationalizing those companies.
pbhjpbhj 2y ago
>Why don't they cut Internet cables? Terrorists surely want as much, rapid, coverage of their acts as possible (even if not wanting anyone to know they're terrorist acts). If internet were out that probably makes the acts less impactful.
raverbashing 2y ago
Throwaway account to defend Russia, do not worry about Russia until facts are officially denied > It is of course possible that Russia did this particular one, but it is not Russia's style. Why now and not in 2022? Why don't they cut Internet cables? Why would they do it when they know there will just be a backlash? Because Russia likes to pretend it's not them (you know that) And they have been going around internet cables in an inappropriate way
piva00 2y ago
> It is of course possible that Russia did this particular one, but it is not Russia's style. Why now and not in 2022? Because now there's a major event happening in France, where disruptions will be shown globally and affect people from many places congregating for a singular event. It shames France on the global stage, Putin likes shaming leaders who he thinks are weak. > Why don't they cut Internet cables? Why would they do it when they know there will just be a backlash? Internet cables have much more redundancy than a rail network, you can't route trains around the world to get to their destination just some hundreds of milliseconds delayed, it's disruptive but workarounds are embedded in the design of the system, not so much with rail during peak summer season in a very touristic country while hosting a major sporting event. Do you think Russia really cares about the backlash? They keep pushing the boundaries to test responses, what kind of backlash do you think France would give to a nuclear power while they can't show with 100% certainty was Russian? That's the MO of Russia, I don't understand why you are trying to defend it. It might as well not be Russia but the suspicions aren't far fetched, given stuff like this: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2024/07/24/russian-spy-arrested-in-paris-after-alleged-plan-to-destabilize-olympic-games_6696920_7.html https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2024/07/24/russian-...

by aklfsi 2y ago

cyberpunk 2y ago

I thought it was pretty well understood to be the Brits who did it, with the blessing of the US. Of course, we will never know.

Yoric 2y ago

Well, blowing up Nordstream was clearly against Russian interests, so yeah, nobody believe that the Russian government did. This one? Anything that messes up with the credibility of NATO governments (and France is one of the pillars of NATO) could help Russia. Which of course doesn't prove that it is Russia, either.

ptjahb 2y ago
That is not the case. The initial Western reaction in the weeks after the event was: - Russia did it as a false flag operation to sow distrust between NATO members. - Russia did it because the long term contracts for Nordstream 1 required them to supply cheap gas, whereas they'd get market prices for the remaining pipeline of Nordstream 2. It is remarkable that all Western agencies have backed off from both claims.
- kagdf 2y ago
  Initial reaction (of course only one side always has to source their assertions, while the people calling for a nuclear retaliation do not): https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/qa-nord-stream-gas-sabotage-whos-being-blamed-why-2022-09-30/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/qa-nord-stream-gas-sabo... Plenty of people claiming that Russia did it.
- Yoric 2y ago
  Sure, initial reactions were all over the place. But that doesn't detract from what I wrote.
dralley 2y ago
It's not "clearly" against Russian interests given that Russia was already withholding supply with a myriad of various transparent excuses at the time, and using their German-based but Russian-owned companies to prevent Germany from stockpiling natural gas (they owned the storage), which ultimately resulted in Germany nationalizing those companies.

pbhjpbhj 2y ago

>Why don't they cut Internet cables? Terrorists surely want as much, rapid, coverage of their acts as possible (even if not wanting anyone to know they're terrorist acts). If internet were out that probably makes the acts less impactful.

raverbashing 2y ago

Throwaway account to defend Russia, do not worry about Russia until facts are officially denied > It is of course possible that Russia did this particular one, but it is not Russia's style. Why now and not in 2022? Why don't they cut Internet cables? Why would they do it when they know there will just be a backlash? Because Russia likes to pretend it's not them (you know that) And they have been going around internet cables in an inappropriate way

piva00 2y ago

> It is of course possible that Russia did this particular one, but it is not Russia's style. Why now and not in 2022? Because now there's a major event happening in France, where disruptions will be shown globally and affect people from many places congregating for a singular event. It shames France on the global stage, Putin likes shaming leaders who he thinks are weak. > Why don't they cut Internet cables? Why would they do it when they know there will just be a backlash? Internet cables have much more redundancy than a rail network, you can't route trains around the world to get to their destination just some hundreds of milliseconds delayed, it's disruptive but workarounds are embedded in the design of the system, not so much with rail during peak summer season in a very touristic country while hosting a major sporting event. Do you think Russia really cares about the backlash? They keep pushing the boundaries to test responses, what kind of backlash do you think France would give to a nuclear power while they can't show with 100% certainty was Russian? That's the MO of Russia, I don't understand why you are trying to defend it. It might as well not be Russia but the suspicions aren't far fetched, given stuff like this: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2024/07/24/russian-spy-arrested-in-paris-after-alleged-plan-to-destabilize-olympic-games_6696920_7.html https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2024/07/24/russian-...