4 ms·

> colluding with many major suppliers to stop food and commodities exports to China > Reality is more than enough Except it's all hypothetical?

by qwytw 2y ago

throw310822 2y ago
True, but how would the US feel about a country throwing around the possibility of cutting them off of global supplies and even blocking their shipping routes? Do you think US citizens would feel good towards such a country? Not to mention that of course the US have been waging a commercial war with China already for several years.
- qwytw 2y ago
  > but how would the US feel about a country You mean about anonymous individuals (who might or might not be citizens of that given country) throwing around that idea on an online forum? But I'll try not being facetious. I do of course understand your point, even if I do think you overdramatizing it. Yes US has been waging a commercial war with China, just like China was waging a war with the US. I don't really see how is the US the clear aggressor here (of course it mainly has itself to blame for entering into this unsustainable relationship with China to begin with; however I still strongly believe that in relative terms China benefited significantly more from US/rest of the developed outsourcing much of their industrial/etc. production to China than the other way around, though). And obviously China is a clear aggressor in certain aspects (e.g. how would as British citizen if Germany/France/etc. started threatening to invade your island over Brexit?). If that's not a good analogy we could use Ireland and Britain instead. > possibility of cutting them off of global supplies and even blocking their shipping routes Anyway, this is sounds extremely far fetched. Orthogonal to what the US was and is still doing; I don't think any country did more to keep global shipping routes open for the 50+ years or so. Blockading China would be the equivalent of purposefully shutting yourself in the gut (even if we ignore any potential military reaction)
protomolecule 2y ago
China can see the West imposing sanctions on Russia and pressuring other countries to join with secondary sanctions.
- qwytw 2y ago
  And they missed the West imposing sanctions on Iran, Iraq, Yugoslavia, South Africa and many other countries in the past? Russia's position in the global economy is radically different to that of China's. Especially from the perspective of the US, which lost almost nothing by imposing sanctions on Russia (the brunt of the costs was borne by Europe), arguably it actually benefited from them. In China's case it would be very different. Of course if US and its allies managed to somehow economically untangle themselves from China well. That would depend. In any case.. If China is really concerned with this they could just start by leaving Taiwan alone, that would significantly reduce any tension.
  - protomolecule 2y ago
    "And they missed the West imposing sanctions" The scale is unprecedented. "If China is really concerned with this they could just start by leaving Taiwan alone" Yeah, "if you are really concerned with the gun pointed at your head -- do as we say." China prefers doing something about the gun itself.
    - qwytw 2y ago
      > The scale is unprecedented. Relative to the geopolitically important of the target country? Yes. Looking at the scale of the sanctions themselves? Hardly. I still think the other factors I listed are more important. > "if you are really concerned with the gun pointed at your head -- do as we say." No, it's if you randomly make unprovoked threats to neighboring expects consequences and general behave in an aggressive way (politically and economically) expect that other countries will react. China is the one pointing the gun for the most part.
      - protomolecule 2y ago

> colluding with many major suppliers to stop food and commodities exports to China > Reality is more than enough Except it's all hypothetical?

by qwytw 2y ago

> colluding with many major suppliers to stop food and commodities exports to China > Reality is more than enough Except it's all hypothetical?

throw310822 2y ago

True, but how would the US feel about a country throwing around the possibility of cutting them off of global supplies and even blocking their shipping routes? Do you think US citizens would feel good towards such a country? Not to mention that of course the US have been waging a commercial war with China already for several years.

qwytw 2y ago
> but how would the US feel about a country You mean about anonymous individuals (who might or might not be citizens of that given country) throwing around that idea on an online forum? But I'll try not being facetious. I do of course understand your point, even if I do think you overdramatizing it. Yes US has been waging a commercial war with China, just like China was waging a war with the US. I don't really see how is the US the clear aggressor here (of course it mainly has itself to blame for entering into this unsustainable relationship with China to begin with; however I still strongly believe that in relative terms China benefited significantly more from US/rest of the developed outsourcing much of their industrial/etc. production to China than the other way around, though). And obviously China is a clear aggressor in certain aspects (e.g. how would as British citizen if Germany/France/etc. started threatening to invade your island over Brexit?). If that's not a good analogy we could use Ireland and Britain instead. > possibility of cutting them off of global supplies and even blocking their shipping routes Anyway, this is sounds extremely far fetched. Orthogonal to what the US was and is still doing; I don't think any country did more to keep global shipping routes open for the 50+ years or so. Blockading China would be the equivalent of purposefully shutting yourself in the gut (even if we ignore any potential military reaction)

protomolecule 2y ago

China can see the West imposing sanctions on Russia and pressuring other countries to join with secondary sanctions.

qwytw 2y ago
And they missed the West imposing sanctions on Iran, Iraq, Yugoslavia, South Africa and many other countries in the past? Russia's position in the global economy is radically different to that of China's. Especially from the perspective of the US, which lost almost nothing by imposing sanctions on Russia (the brunt of the costs was borne by Europe), arguably it actually benefited from them. In China's case it would be very different. Of course if US and its allies managed to somehow economically untangle themselves from China well. That would depend. In any case.. If China is really concerned with this they could just start by leaving Taiwan alone, that would significantly reduce any tension.
- protomolecule 2y ago
  "And they missed the West imposing sanctions" The scale is unprecedented. "If China is really concerned with this they could just start by leaving Taiwan alone" Yeah, "if you are really concerned with the gun pointed at your head -- do as we say." China prefers doing something about the gun itself.
  - qwytw 2y ago
    > The scale is unprecedented. Relative to the geopolitically important of the target country? Yes. Looking at the scale of the sanctions themselves? Hardly. I still think the other factors I listed are more important. > "if you are really concerned with the gun pointed at your head -- do as we say." No, it's if you randomly make unprovoked threats to neighboring expects consequences and general behave in an aggressive way (politically and economically) expect that other countries will react. China is the one pointing the gun for the most part.
    - protomolecule 2y ago