3 ms·

Germany might be a counter-example. Cost of living has steadily risen 2008-2021 (and dropped a bit since then), but Germany's birth rate has increased over that

Germany might be a counter-example. Cost of living has steadily risen 2008-2021 (and dropped a bit since then), but Germany's birth rate has increased over that period, while birth rates in France and the US have fallen. Germany's birth rate is generally slowly rising ever since a low in 1995. If you zoom out a bit more Germany's birth rate cratered in the 1960s/70s, generally attributed to the wider availability of oral contraceptives. Similarly in its peers. Though that's only the enabling technology, the lower desire for babies is almost certainly driven by other factors (urbanization, better health care, etc)

tivert 2y ago
> Though that's only the enabling technology, the lower desire for babies is almost certainly driven by other factors (urbanization, better health care, etc) I'm not so sure about that. There's no law that says desire has to be aligned with needed action. For instance: up to the availability of oral contraceptives, it was very hard to avoid having kids even if you didn't want them. Kids would happen automatically if you desired a different thing: sex. It's sort of like exercise: it used to not matter if someone desired to "exercise" or not, because they were forced to do lots of physical activity if they wanted to live (e.g. physical work on a farm, walk to the market, etc.). Now technology has enabled a previously impossible level of sedentary life for the common person, moving exercise from a necessity to a desire, we have huge and increasing levels of health problems in society because the desire for the needed thing itself isn't there. I predict, after some period of time, "childfree" psychology will breed itself out of society, and the people who are left will have a lot more explicit desire for children.
hobotime 2y ago
[flagged]
- nebula8804 2y ago
  They aren't making a dent. The country is on track for population collapse. Although the last person left that will turn off the lights might not be the typical German that you think of. [1]:https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2023/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2023/ What you describe is true in the US though. They have been able to 'cheat' by getting the cream of the crop via immigration to bolster their numbers(although its now fraying post Trump). Without that immigration, they would probably be mirroring German numbers. [2]:https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2023/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2...
  - s1artibartfast 2y ago
    I think the population curve on the right is a little misleading because the y axis isnt zero justified. Germany is looking at a 10% reduction over the next 50 years. They have a large cohort of current 60 year-olds, but their pyramid is far from catastrophic, and unlike China for example.
    - nebula8804 2y ago
      Maybe it won't go to zero like that chart shows but if there isn't enough young people to at least maintain the population then as the old people die, it will lead to the overall population to decrease, then you also have to consider accelerated deaths due to lack of resources in senior care caused by an increasing lack of young people. 10% reduction seems absurdly low given you can literally see the large difference between the young (0-18) vs the aging workforce 55-59
- shprd 2y ago
  > The populations that are colonizing Germany What's up with your racism and hate? Literally No one is colonizing you 1- Foreigners account to only 17% of the population (and 70% of them are from Europe) [1] 2- If we look at countries with the highest proportion of immigrants, Germany is no. 18 on the list [2] If you've an issue with people from outside Germany moving there, change your policy. If there are problems, fix your system. That's how every country work. jeez, do you still live in the middle ages? [1] - https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Society-Environment/Population/Migration-Integration/Tables/foreigner-place-of-birth.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Society-Environment/Popula... [2] - https://www.visualcapitalist.com/countries-with-the-highest-proportion-of-immigrants/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/countries-with-the-highest-...
  - orwin 2y ago
    In middle ages, the very idea of a passport and preventing workers from coming in your lands would have been considered crazy and dumb.
  - nec4b 2y ago
    [flagged]
    - shprd 2y ago
      Ew? Does this vulgarity represent 'the culture' you're proud of? Judging by your manners, one can tell that you have a very rich culture. I'm kind of jealous. Feel free to expose yourself more. Colonizers vs migrants: Let me help you understand the difference, Who appointed the chancellor? Who is passing laws and enacting mandates? Who control the police and military? I see, it's not only your manners that's lacking, even your education is lower class. It feels like you only read the table of contents when studying history. You're just living in full paranoia, asking other people to erase their identity because they're different. I advise you to travel abroad more and make friends with people from different cultures. Every country in the world, except maybe North Korea, has people from different backgrounds who are proud and attached to their heritage, religion, language, and culture. There are many german diaspora abroad who are attached to their culture and don't let go of their identity, they even establish their own political parties and organizations, by your logic the germans are colonizing other countries, right? You're delusional If you want to repeat Brexit, go ahead. The world would be thankful for a new laughing stock.
MandieD 2y ago
Being able to trust that my employer would bring me back part-time in a comparable role (at the same hourly rate of pay) after a year of maternity leave and then decide if I wanted to continue working part-time up to my kid's 8th birthday sure made this whole thing less scary. That's one of the big differences between having a kid in Germany and the US. (the sub-500 EUR/mo daycare is another one - and that was for a 1.5 engineer income couple)
nebula8804 2y ago
What are you talking about? Maybe I don't understand what you are getting at but Germany's Population Pyramid has them completely collapsing by 2100 whereas the US and France are actually the stars of population stability (in the west anyway) [1]:https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2023/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2023/ [2]:https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2023/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2... [3]:https://www.populationpyramid.net/france/2023/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/france/2023/
- wongarsu 2y ago
  I'm purely talking about the change in birth rate and how that relates to outside pressures. The German birth rate is rising, but it's also true that it's very low. It has been below that of the US since about the 1920s, and the two are only now approaching each other with the German birth rate sharply rising (probably attributable to immigration) and the US birth rate falling. And of course population pyramids are affected by both births/deaths and migration. Migration is a pretty big factor that is very different between the three countries (and that changed significantly over time as well)

tivert 2y ago

> Though that's only the enabling technology, the lower desire for babies is almost certainly driven by other factors (urbanization, better health care, etc) I'm not so sure about that. There's no law that says desire has to be aligned with needed action. For instance: up to the availability of oral contraceptives, it was very hard to avoid having kids even if you didn't want them. Kids would happen automatically if you desired a different thing: sex. It's sort of like exercise: it used to not matter if someone desired to "exercise" or not, because they were forced to do lots of physical activity if they wanted to live (e.g. physical work on a farm, walk to the market, etc.). Now technology has enabled a previously impossible level of sedentary life for the common person, moving exercise from a necessity to a desire, we have huge and increasing levels of health problems in society because the desire for the needed thing itself isn't there. I predict, after some period of time, "childfree" psychology will breed itself out of society, and the people who are left will have a lot more explicit desire for children.

hobotime 2y ago

[flagged]

nebula8804 2y ago
They aren't making a dent. The country is on track for population collapse. Although the last person left that will turn off the lights might not be the typical German that you think of. [1]:https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2023/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2023/ What you describe is true in the US though. They have been able to 'cheat' by getting the cream of the crop via immigration to bolster their numbers(although its now fraying post Trump). Without that immigration, they would probably be mirroring German numbers. [2]:https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2023/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2...
- s1artibartfast 2y ago
  I think the population curve on the right is a little misleading because the y axis isnt zero justified. Germany is looking at a 10% reduction over the next 50 years. They have a large cohort of current 60 year-olds, but their pyramid is far from catastrophic, and unlike China for example.
  - nebula8804 2y ago
    Maybe it won't go to zero like that chart shows but if there isn't enough young people to at least maintain the population then as the old people die, it will lead to the overall population to decrease, then you also have to consider accelerated deaths due to lack of resources in senior care caused by an increasing lack of young people. 10% reduction seems absurdly low given you can literally see the large difference between the young (0-18) vs the aging workforce 55-59
shprd 2y ago
> The populations that are colonizing Germany What's up with your racism and hate? Literally No one is colonizing you 1- Foreigners account to only 17% of the population (and 70% of them are from Europe) [1] 2- If we look at countries with the highest proportion of immigrants, Germany is no. 18 on the list [2] If you've an issue with people from outside Germany moving there, change your policy. If there are problems, fix your system. That's how every country work. jeez, do you still live in the middle ages? [1] - https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Society-Environment/Population/Migration-Integration/Tables/foreigner-place-of-birth.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Society-Environment/Popula... [2] - https://www.visualcapitalist.com/countries-with-the-highest-proportion-of-immigrants/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/countries-with-the-highest-...
- orwin 2y ago
  In middle ages, the very idea of a passport and preventing workers from coming in your lands would have been considered crazy and dumb.
- nec4b 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - shprd 2y ago
    Ew? Does this vulgarity represent 'the culture' you're proud of? Judging by your manners, one can tell that you have a very rich culture. I'm kind of jealous. Feel free to expose yourself more. Colonizers vs migrants: Let me help you understand the difference, Who appointed the chancellor? Who is passing laws and enacting mandates? Who control the police and military? I see, it's not only your manners that's lacking, even your education is lower class. It feels like you only read the table of contents when studying history. You're just living in full paranoia, asking other people to erase their identity because they're different. I advise you to travel abroad more and make friends with people from different cultures. Every country in the world, except maybe North Korea, has people from different backgrounds who are proud and attached to their heritage, religion, language, and culture. There are many german diaspora abroad who are attached to their culture and don't let go of their identity, they even establish their own political parties and organizations, by your logic the germans are colonizing other countries, right? You're delusional If you want to repeat Brexit, go ahead. The world would be thankful for a new laughing stock.

MandieD 2y ago

Being able to trust that my employer would bring me back part-time in a comparable role (at the same hourly rate of pay) after a year of maternity leave and then decide if I wanted to continue working part-time up to my kid's 8th birthday sure made this whole thing less scary. That's one of the big differences between having a kid in Germany and the US. (the sub-500 EUR/mo daycare is another one - and that was for a 1.5 engineer income couple)

nebula8804 2y ago

What are you talking about? Maybe I don't understand what you are getting at but Germany's Population Pyramid has them completely collapsing by 2100 whereas the US and France are actually the stars of population stability (in the west anyway) [1]:https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2023/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2023/ [2]:https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2023/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2... [3]:https://www.populationpyramid.net/france/2023/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/france/2023/

wongarsu 2y ago
I'm purely talking about the change in birth rate and how that relates to outside pressures. The German birth rate is rising, but it's also true that it's very low. It has been below that of the US since about the 1920s, and the two are only now approaching each other with the German birth rate sharply rising (probably attributable to immigration) and the US birth rate falling. And of course population pyramids are affected by both births/deaths and migration. Migration is a pretty big factor that is very different between the three countries (and that changed significantly over time as well)