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The thing is with the used car market is that maintenance cost is not paid by all the owners. Its paid only by who happens to be holding the hot potato when the

by asdff 2y ago

The thing is with the used car market is that maintenance cost is not paid by all the owners. Its paid only by who happens to be holding the hot potato when the battery is screwed, and most people with means aren't holding a car to 150k miles, that's about how many miles an ICE car has in the maybe $5kish used range. The sort of person buying a $5k car can't afford a $10k battery. They might not have access to $10k on a line of credit either. The worst similar thing that could happen for an ICE car is a timing belt going before you replace it and screwing up the engine or the automatic transmission needing replace, both issues much less costly than a $10k battery but also costly enough that people sometimes walk away entirely from the car.

Dylan16807 2y ago
EV batteries don't tend to suddenly die, do they? You can negotiate a lower price for a weaker battery, and you don't have to replace it the moment it hits 80% capacity. And we're currently talking about cars that are worth significantly more than $5k. An extra 30% to fix it up is very different from an extra 200%.
- Clubber 2y ago
  A colleague of mine bought a Tesla. He was looking to trade it up for a newer model after a couple of years and it depreciated probably $30K (nearly half) if I recall correctly. He absolutely loves the car, but nobody wants to take on that type of depreciation hit.
  - Dylan16807 2y ago
    That's something worth nothing, but most of that is unrelated to the battery, and I don't see how it has anything to do with the rest of this comment thread.
    - Clubber 2y ago
      I suspect a lot of that depreciation has to do with the battery life and replacement cost. For the current used market it's pretty drastic. I'm not sure if it's just a flooded market, a fad ending, people just don't like EV's after owning them, Tesla cutting prices, or what. Perhaps some of all of that. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/poor-resale-values-of-evs-are-a-problem-for-the-industry-warn-experts.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/poor-resale-values-of-evs-ar... Edit: A recent study from iSeeCars.com showed the average price of a 1- to 5-year-old used EV in the U.S. fell 31.8% over the past 12 months, equating to a value loss of $14,418. In comparison, the average price for a comparably aged internal combustion engine vehicle fell just 3.6%. https://spectrumnews1.com/ca/la-west/transportation/2023/11/07/evs-depreciate-more-than-any-other-vehicle-type--study-says https://spectrumnews1.com/ca/la-west/transportation/2023/11/... The Tesla Model S topped the list of EVs that depreciated most over five years; it lost 55.5% of its value, according to the analysis. Rounding out the top five were the Chevrolet Bolt EV (-51.1%), the Nissan Leaf (-50.8%), Tesla Model X (-49.9%) and Tesla Model 3 (-42.9%). Overall, the average vehicle lost 38.8% of its value after five years, according to the analysis. Trucks retained the most value (depreciating 34.8% over five years), followed by hybrids and SUVs, which depreciated 37.4% and 41.2% respectively. Environmental guilt only goes so far in terms of sales. For large adoption, the depreciation problem needs to be solved. Wealthy people (1st buyer) can afford to throw money at EVs over and over again and usually keep their vehicle only 2-3 years. Middle class (2nd buyer) need a dependable car that costs less per month (cost minus sell value) and lower class people (3rd buyer) need a vehicle that will last forever. The current state of EV's only satisfies the first and maybe some of the second buyer market while an ICE satisfies all three. EV's sure are cool though.
      - Dylan16807 2y ago
        Well apparently the average car loses 42% of its value after three years, so if that Tesla lost an extra 10% that wouldn't be a huge difference. 5-year depreciation can be anywhere from 20 to 60 percent depending on model, and that's just looking at gas cars. Edit: Oh you added a lot more. The wall of all EV prices falling will happen less and less as the tech matures. And even with that factor, they're still not at the bottom of car depreciation lists after 5 years.
      - 2y ago
rurp 2y ago
I feel like the battery cost issue is being hand-waved by too many people here. For most people driving a car with well over 100k miles, spending $10k to replace a battery is a total non-starter. In addition to batteries degrading, there's also the risk of an accident. Some crashes that would be fixable for an older ICE car will require replacing the battery in an EV at a cost far greater than the car would be worth, making it non-viable. The battery is a risk factor that many people already worried about their finances won't want to take on.
- Dylan16807 2y ago
  > For most people driving a car with well over 100k miles, spending $10k to replace a battery is a total non-starter. Well do the math with prices instead of miles. If you think you need to replace the battery soon, and the EV is $8k cheaper, it's a tempting purchase. Just don't spend the $8k on something else. If that's impossible because the battery car would have to go below free, then that could be a problem. But that's still way cheaper than EVs are right now. I wish we had that problem! And at that point in the future, the fix is cheaper batteries, and it will happen. > Some crashes that would be fixable for an older ICE car will require replacing the battery in an EV at a cost far greater than the car would be worth, making it non-viable. The battery is a risk factor that many people already worried about their finances won't want to take on. I don't think the difference between "4% chance it's totalled in the next few years" and "5% chance it's totalled in the next few years" is a deal breaker. And that math is affected by so many other model-specific things too...

by asdff 2y ago

Dylan16807 2y ago

EV batteries don't tend to suddenly die, do they? You can negotiate a lower price for a weaker battery, and you don't have to replace it the moment it hits 80% capacity. And we're currently talking about cars that are worth significantly more than $5k. An extra 30% to fix it up is very different from an extra 200%.

Clubber 2y ago
A colleague of mine bought a Tesla. He was looking to trade it up for a newer model after a couple of years and it depreciated probably $30K (nearly half) if I recall correctly. He absolutely loves the car, but nobody wants to take on that type of depreciation hit.
- Dylan16807 2y ago
  That's something worth nothing, but most of that is unrelated to the battery, and I don't see how it has anything to do with the rest of this comment thread.
  - Clubber 2y ago
    I suspect a lot of that depreciation has to do with the battery life and replacement cost. For the current used market it's pretty drastic. I'm not sure if it's just a flooded market, a fad ending, people just don't like EV's after owning them, Tesla cutting prices, or what. Perhaps some of all of that. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/poor-resale-values-of-evs-are-a-problem-for-the-industry-warn-experts.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/poor-resale-values-of-evs-ar... Edit: A recent study from iSeeCars.com showed the average price of a 1- to 5-year-old used EV in the U.S. fell 31.8% over the past 12 months, equating to a value loss of $14,418. In comparison, the average price for a comparably aged internal combustion engine vehicle fell just 3.6%. https://spectrumnews1.com/ca/la-west/transportation/2023/11/07/evs-depreciate-more-than-any-other-vehicle-type--study-says https://spectrumnews1.com/ca/la-west/transportation/2023/11/... The Tesla Model S topped the list of EVs that depreciated most over five years; it lost 55.5% of its value, according to the analysis. Rounding out the top five were the Chevrolet Bolt EV (-51.1%), the Nissan Leaf (-50.8%), Tesla Model X (-49.9%) and Tesla Model 3 (-42.9%). Overall, the average vehicle lost 38.8% of its value after five years, according to the analysis. Trucks retained the most value (depreciating 34.8% over five years), followed by hybrids and SUVs, which depreciated 37.4% and 41.2% respectively. Environmental guilt only goes so far in terms of sales. For large adoption, the depreciation problem needs to be solved. Wealthy people (1st buyer) can afford to throw money at EVs over and over again and usually keep their vehicle only 2-3 years. Middle class (2nd buyer) need a dependable car that costs less per month (cost minus sell value) and lower class people (3rd buyer) need a vehicle that will last forever. The current state of EV's only satisfies the first and maybe some of the second buyer market while an ICE satisfies all three. EV's sure are cool though.
    - Dylan16807 2y ago
      Well apparently the average car loses 42% of its value after three years, so if that Tesla lost an extra 10% that wouldn't be a huge difference. 5-year depreciation can be anywhere from 20 to 60 percent depending on model, and that's just looking at gas cars. Edit: Oh you added a lot more. The wall of all EV prices falling will happen less and less as the tech matures. And even with that factor, they're still not at the bottom of car depreciation lists after 5 years.
    - 2y ago

rurp 2y ago

I feel like the battery cost issue is being hand-waved by too many people here. For most people driving a car with well over 100k miles, spending $10k to replace a battery is a total non-starter. In addition to batteries degrading, there's also the risk of an accident. Some crashes that would be fixable for an older ICE car will require replacing the battery in an EV at a cost far greater than the car would be worth, making it non-viable. The battery is a risk factor that many people already worried about their finances won't want to take on.

Dylan16807 2y ago
> For most people driving a car with well over 100k miles, spending $10k to replace a battery is a total non-starter. Well do the math with prices instead of miles. If you think you need to replace the battery soon, and the EV is $8k cheaper, it's a tempting purchase. Just don't spend the $8k on something else. If that's impossible because the battery car would have to go below free, then that could be a problem. But that's still way cheaper than EVs are right now. I wish we had that problem! And at that point in the future, the fix is cheaper batteries, and it will happen. > Some crashes that would be fixable for an older ICE car will require replacing the battery in an EV at a cost far greater than the car would be worth, making it non-viable. The battery is a risk factor that many people already worried about their finances won't want to take on. I don't think the difference between "4% chance it's totalled in the next few years" and "5% chance it's totalled in the next few years" is a deal breaker. And that math is affected by so many other model-specific things too...