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can anyone who lived through the past four years seriously doubt that possessing an independent capacity to withstand disruption is beneficial? is anyone predi

• sameoldtune 2y ago
  Having some months food and water on hand for emergencies? Sounds great. Building a fortified bunker to protect your property when the government is overtaken by brown socialists? Less great. If prepping were divorced from reactionary doomsday scenarios it would be much cooler. It’s not that different than people who fantasize about being the “good guy with a gun”.
  • runjake 2y ago
    Prepping is divorced from doomers if we look outside mainstream media reporting. In the PNW of the US, there are many thriving prepper communities of all political persuasions and I find that the vast majority of them are not doomers, and in fact, try to avoid doomers and satirize them.
    • fdr 2y ago
      I think of it as something of a hobby. A little bit camping-adjacent. But just a little bit.
      • runjake 2y ago
        It used to be a hobby. But now we have major, extended weather-related events once or twice a year (wildfires and winter storms). And then there was the pandemic. So now, it's a mission-critical thing.
    • DaoVeles 2y ago
      I said in another comment, it is an endless task of talking down the newbies off the ledge of their doomsday prophecy. "No we are not going to be in a Mad max world in 2 years!"
      • runjake 2y ago
        Agreed, but I've also experienced some Mad Max-ishness at the (small) town and neighborhood level during a couple of events (wildfire chaos and complete hosedness from winter storms) where my inner redneck engineer flourished. When it happens at the atomic level, the larger government elements aren't really supplying timely assistance or even functional law enforcement.
  • deleted 2y ago
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  • doe_eyes 2y ago
    There are tens of millions of people who practice emergency preparedness. There is only a tiny handful of people with private bunkers, and it's overwhelmingly just rich folks who treat it as an offbeat hobby or a status symbol - like a wine cellar or a collection of luxury cars. I get that it's fascinating, but the "bunker prepper" argument has no place in a good-faith discussion of emergency preparedness. [Edit: added "private" to address some irrelevant rebukes below.]
    • bboygravity 2y ago
      "There is only a tiny handful of people with bunkers" uhm? Ever heard of Zwitserland?
      • gambiting 2y ago
        Switzerland total population is just over 8 million - so about 0.1% of total. I think "tiny handful" is correct.
        • slater 2y ago
          Not sure if I'm interpreting your response correctly, but every house and apartment bloc in Switzerland has a bunker.
    • hollerith 2y ago
      During the Cold War, Switzerland maintained fallout shelters for its entire population (plus an extra 25%). If you owned a house, the government would periodically inspect the fallout shelter and verify that it was stocked with food and water. Cities had large, communal shelters. Finland and Sweden were also big on fallout shelters.
  • cheese4242 2y ago
    > when the government is overtaken by brown socialists? Interesting that you chose this example when nearly every socialist/communist revolution that has ever happened in history started with mass murder.
    • ben_w 2y ago
      Surely "nearly all" is implicit in the word "revolution" more than in "communist"? (And socialism being so much vaguer in practice that I never know if the person saying it means "The Democratic Party of the USA" or the way that the nordic countries are "socialist", which are a long way from Chinese communism, which is itself denounced as being "state capitalism" by some).
      • rightbyte 2y ago
        It wouldn't be far fetched to argue Denmark is more socialist than China.
  • DaoVeles 2y ago
    Having browsed the prepper communities for years it is actually pretty cool how reasonable a lot of them are. The big thing they have is constantly heading off the newbies with their doomsday prophecies/fantasies. Most long term preppers advocate for a deeper pantry, so a few months instead of a few weeks, a few gallons of water in a shed. A focus on personal health as there is no point hoarding guns if you cannot run 100 meters. Increase personal skills that can be useful in a time of disruption such as basic medical aid. And community, that is key - "If you want to fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go with others." African proverb A lot of them point out about how the stereo type of the food hoard on your own land with a small military of guns is foolish. That even if the worst case Zombie situation did arise, that just makes you a target for others and would have to become endlessly paranoid just to maintain a terrible lifestyle.
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• candiddevmike 2y ago
  Yes, the focus on individual capacity is misguided and foolish. The focus should be on community resiliency instead of individuals. The cool part about focusing on community resiliency is it increases the mental health and well-being of the community members, as well as helping the local economy by focusing on self-sufficiency!
  • exclusiv 2y ago
    Sounds nice but it's because community resilience is not a thing almost anywhere that people prep.
  • Kalium 2y ago
    Individual capacity enables community resilience. If you have resources that can be shared, they can be shared with your neighbors. Otherwise, we're either asking local government to invest in resilience or reinventing local government to ask this new body to invest in resilience. In either capacity, we are not investing in individual capacity, we're just trusting that the resources we need will be made available in time of need and sufficient to the needs of all.
  • doe_eyes 2y ago
    Foolish in what sense? It's not foolish when it works. It can certainly shield you against individual problems, such as losing a job. In many cases, there are benefits to scale, but the optimal scale varies from one setting to another. Sometimes, the optimal "unit" is your block. Sometimes, your village. Sometimes, your family. And sometimes, yeah, just you. At a massive scale, things start falling apart again, because the government - or any other organization notionally responsible for the well-being of millions - is not going to be particularly invested in your individual outcome. You're just a small part of a statistic that might be tracked somewhere. You don't quite qualify for a particular benefit because of your unique circumstances? Tough luck.
  • mythrwy 2y ago
    Convincing "community" to prepare for a potential problem before they are actually smacked in the face with it is a tall order.
• hiddencost 2y ago
  I was surprised how resilient our logistics networks were, in the face of the pandemic. I thought things would go much worse. It gave me more confidence in the adaptability of our system.
  • doe_eyes 2y ago
    While I think that supply chains are pretty resilient... were we watching the same thing? We had a mild disease making rounds - far less serious than some of the pandemics of the early 20th century, let alone before that - and we had multi-week shortages of TP, followed by multi-year shortages of ICs and cars. Yeah, no one died due to not being able to buy TP, but it wasn't all that confidence-inspiring. Pre-COVID, would you have thought that the supply of such a basic and easily-manufactured good is so weirdly inflexible?
    • Izkata 2y ago
      Most, possibly all of that, was due to the mass lockdowns - something we'd never attempted before even in the face of much worse pandemics.
  • 123yawaworht456 2y ago
    because COVID was no more severe than flu, not airborne Ebola that everyone at the time pretended it was.
    • dogmatism 2y ago
      said no one who worked in hospitals in 2020 and 2021 Not sure I'll ever get over it
      • 123yawaworht456 2y ago
        what has changed since 2020 and 2021, exactly? there's no cure, there is no permanent vaccine, and I doubt that even twitter neurotics who had two syringes in their handles when COVID was le current thing bother getting their bi-weekly booster, which means virtually all of us are unvaccinated again. and yet the world keeps spinning. does that not suggest that the detractors were right all along? we got a new current thing for the media and twitter checkmarks to yell about, and COVID quickly ceased to be a problem - less than three months after "winter of severe illness and death" promised by the white house in december 2021.
• adolph 2y ago
  Resilience is overrated and zero-sum. Once systems are antifragile they can really expand the ergodicitic envelope for the benefit of all. Working against the second law is futile anyway; embrace entropic accelerationism.
  • maneesh 2y ago
    Do you have any examples of how this could be done?
  • adammarples 2y ago
    OK thank you taleb. How do you propose to make our food, medicine and clean water supplies antifragile?
    • beepbooptheory 2y ago
      I would imagine the answer here is something along the lines of: "let a few billion people starve."
      • DaoVeles 2y ago
        Thus the rise of Eco-fascism begins! Last year I wrote a piece on Ted Kacsynski's passing. To summarize 6000 words - some decent ideas, absolute mad man who did more harm than good for his cause, I REALLY hope that folks don't emulate his actions. I deeply fear that with peaceful protest being outlawed in places, violent protest become inevitable. This is something that Garrett Hardin was writing about in the 1960-80's. 'Tragedy of the Commons', 'Lifeboat Ethics' and 'Filters against folly' are all works of his worth studying as it shines a spot light on the ugly side of humanity and our impacts. This unfortunately lead to him adopting a lot of anti-immigration stances and some downright racist ideas. It is an a damn shame considering he had a real knack for cutting through the crap and highlighting some of the bigger long terms issues of our behaviors. I really hope we don't go down this path, but everyday it looks like we are slowly taking another step there. May we live in interesting times.
• ben_w 2y ago
  The question is too broad. If we get another covid-scale disease, lockdown, closed borders, a year's wait for vaccination, etc., with similar risks to life and quality of life? Then life goes on as normal, after a brief initial period of just enough people simultaneously choosing to make sure they have the basics for the those basics to no longer be on supermarket shelves. If Russia rolls through Ukraine, then decides to keep going until it reaches the old Iron Curtain? Then I'm 170 km on the wrong side of the new border for someone whose entire knowledge of Russian is [da, nyet, vodka, mir, privyet], but they'd probably let me leave. If an EMP or solar flare destroys the power grid, I don't think there's much I can do; even if I bought some farmland and some oxen to pull a plough without needing to maintain a tractor, my total experience of blacksmithing consists of making some hoops on an activity day at the Weald & Downland Living Museum some time around 1993 when I was about 10.