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> they can't fit an exponential and extrapolate correctly. Anyone fitting an exponential isn't extrapolating correctly pretty much by definition. As you note:
by XorNot 2y ago
> they can't fit an exponential and extrapolate correctly.
Anyone fitting an exponential isn't extrapolating correctly pretty much by definition. As you note:
> Exponential growth always has to stop somewhere, but that's not in and of itself a reason to think this year is the year that it will.
This is a god of the gaps argument. There's no reason it should stop this year, there's also no reason it shouldn't. Fitting the curve is only useful if you're actually presenting an argument as to why for the relevant interval it should continue.
- Dylan16807 2y agoThere's plenty of reasons it shouldn't end this year. Go look at the battery sizes that we need to switch halfway to electric cars and to stabilize the electrical grid. Looking at what happens if growth continues until we get into that range is quite reasonable.
- iSnow 2y ago>Fitting the curve is only useful if you're actually presenting an argument as to why for the relevant interval it should continue. Which he actually does by looking at sodium batteries.